Combination of measurements and model predictions after a release of radionuclides
-
F. Gering
Abstract
Model predictions for rapid assessment and prognosis of possible radiological consequences after an accidental release of radionuclides play an important role in nuclear emergency management. Radiological measurements (e. g., dose rate measurements, contamination measurements of foodstuffs) can be used to improve such model predictions. This paper describes a method for combining model predictions and measurements (data assimilation) in the deposition model and the food chain model of the European radiological decision support system RODOS. The data assimilation approach is based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter, a Monte Carlo variant of the Kalman filter.
Kurzfassung
Modellrechnungen zur schnellen Einschätzung und Prognose von möglichen radiologischen Konsequenzen nach einer unfallbedingten Freisetzung von Radionukliden spielen eine große Rolle im radiologischen Notfallmanagement. Zur Verbesserung dieser Modellrechnungen können in erster Linie radiologische Messungen (z. B. Messungen der Gammadosisrate oder der Kontamination von Nahrungsmitteln) verwendet werden. Ein Verfahren zur Kombination von Modellergebnissen und Messungen (Datenassimilation) wird in dieser Arbeit für das Depositions- und das Nahrungskettenmodell des europäischen radiologischen Entscheidungshilfe-Systems RODOS vorgestellt. Das Verfahren beruht auf dem Ensemble Kalman Filter, eine Monte-Carlo Variante des Kalman Filters.
References
1 Rojas-Palma, C.; Madsen, H.; Gering, F.; Puch, R.; Turcanu, C.; Astrup, P.; Müller, H.; Richter, K.; Zheleznyak, M.; Treebushny, D.; Kolomeev, M.; Kamaev, D.; Wynn, H.: Data assimilation in the decision support system RODOS. Radiation Protection Dosimetry104 (2003) 31.10.1093/oxfordjournals.rpd.a006160Suche in Google Scholar
2 European Commission: RODOS – Decision Support System for Off-site Emergency Management in Europe. EUR-Report 19144 EN (2000).Suche in Google Scholar
3 Kalman, R. E.: A new approach to linear filtering and prediction problems. Journal of Basic Engineering82 (1960) 35.10.1115/1.3662552Suche in Google Scholar
4 Daley, R.: Atmospheric Data Assimilation. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan75 (1997) 319.Suche in Google Scholar
5 Ghil, M.; Malanotte-Rizzoli, P.: Data assimilation in meteorology and oceanography. Advances in Geophysics33 (1991) 141.10.1016/S0065-2687(08)60442-2Suche in Google Scholar
6 Evensen, G.: Sequential data assimilation with a non-linear quasi-geostrophic model using Monte Carlo methods to forecast error statistics. J. Geophys. Res.99 (1994) 10143.10.1029/94JC00572Suche in Google Scholar
7 Evensen, G.: The Ensemble Kalman Filter: Theoretical Formulation and Practical Implementation. Ocean Dynamics53 (2003) 343.10.1007/s10236-003-0036-9Suche in Google Scholar
8 Verlaan, M.; Heemink, A.W.: Tidal Flow Forecasting using Reduced Rank Square Root Filters. Stochastic Hydrol. Hydraul.11 (1997) 349.10.1007/BF02427924Suche in Google Scholar
9 Müller, H.; Pröhl, G.: ECOSYS-87: A Dynamic Model for Assessing Radiological Consequences of Nuclear Accidents. Health Physics64 (1993) 232.10.1097/00004032-199303000-00002Suche in Google Scholar PubMed
10 Müller, H.; Friedland, W.; Pröhl, G.; Gardner, R. H.: Uncertainty in the Ingestion Dose Calculation. Radiation Protection Dosimetry50(2–4) (1993) 353.10.1093/rpd/50.2-4.353Suche in Google Scholar
11 Smith, K. R.; Brown, J.; Jones, J. A.; Mansfield, P.; Smith, J. G.; Haywood, S. M.; Walters, C. B.: Uncertainties on Predicted Concentrations of Radionuclides in Terrestrial Foods and Ingestion Doses. Radiation Protection Dosimetry98 (2002) 313.10.1093/oxfordjournals.rpd.a006723Suche in Google Scholar PubMed
© 2004, Carl Hanser Verlag, München
Artikel in diesem Heft
- Contents/Inhalt
- Contents
- Summaries/Kurzfassungen
- Summaries
- Editorial
- Environmental radioactivity monitoring
- Technical Contributions/Fachbeiträge
- Airborne measurement of radioactivity by learjet 35A
- Air pollution forecasts of the German Weather Service for IMIS
- Monitoring and prediction of the dispersion of radioactive substances in German Federal waterways – concepts and methods
- Natural radionuclides in mineral water in Germany
- Dynamics of radionuclides in forest ecosystems
- Fast determination of strontium radionuclides in milk with the aid of the cryptand 2.2.2
- Strategy for taking measurements using the German Integrated Measuring and Information System (IMIS) in the case of a nuclear emergency
- Combination of measurements and model predictions after a release of radionuclides
- Results of the investigation on natural radiation exposure due to ingestion
- Review Paper/Übersichtsbeitrag
- Brennstabauslegung und Brennstabmodellierung – Teil 1
Artikel in diesem Heft
- Contents/Inhalt
- Contents
- Summaries/Kurzfassungen
- Summaries
- Editorial
- Environmental radioactivity monitoring
- Technical Contributions/Fachbeiträge
- Airborne measurement of radioactivity by learjet 35A
- Air pollution forecasts of the German Weather Service for IMIS
- Monitoring and prediction of the dispersion of radioactive substances in German Federal waterways – concepts and methods
- Natural radionuclides in mineral water in Germany
- Dynamics of radionuclides in forest ecosystems
- Fast determination of strontium radionuclides in milk with the aid of the cryptand 2.2.2
- Strategy for taking measurements using the German Integrated Measuring and Information System (IMIS) in the case of a nuclear emergency
- Combination of measurements and model predictions after a release of radionuclides
- Results of the investigation on natural radiation exposure due to ingestion
- Review Paper/Übersichtsbeitrag
- Brennstabauslegung und Brennstabmodellierung – Teil 1
