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A Rational Calculus of Voting Considering Coalition Signals: The 2005 German Bundestag Election as an Example
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Eric Linhart
Veröffentlicht/Copyright:
12. Januar 2009
This article extends the calculus of rational voting (Riker & Ordeshook, 1968) by considering the coalition building process and the legislative process (cf. Austen-Smith & Banks, 1988) in multi-party systems. Comparing preferences on coalitions and their resulting legislative outcomes instead of party preferences, I create preference profiles of voters on coalitions and estimate the probability that a coalition forms, given the parties' coalition signals, and an expected electoral result. I illustrate the results of this rational calculus for the German Bundestag elections 2005 as a political map. Furthermore, this calculus allows the identification of coalition signals which raise and reduce a party's vote share.
Published Online: 2009-1-12
©2011 Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co. KG, Berlin/Boston
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Artikel in diesem Heft
- Article
- A Rational Calculus of Voting Considering Coalition Signals: The 2005 German Bundestag Election as an Example
- The Justification of Political Obligation
- Sources of Euroscepticism: Utilitarian Interest, Social Distrust, National Identity and Institutional Distrust
- Legislative Conduct in Response to Executive Initiative: Unity among Political Blocs in Chile
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- Organizational Change in Local Governments: The Impact of the Danish Local Government Reform
- Energy Policy: Concepts, Actors, Instruments and Recent Developments
- How to Coerce a Multi-Dimensional System into a Undimensional Frame: Israel's 1996 Electoral Change
- The Dialectics of Multicultural Identity: Learning from Canada
- Regional Newspaper Coverage of Norwegian Local Elections: Election Coverage in the Agderposten and Fedrelandsvennen Newspapers
- On the Issue of Relations between the E.U. and Eastern European Countries
- Yoshida Shigeru's "Counter Infiltration" Plan against China: The Plan for Japanese Intelligence Activities in Mainland China 1952-1954
- The Contemporary American Vice Presidency: A School for the Presidency?
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- How Could Reconstruction of 'Linguistic Contexts' of Political Debates Advance Our Understanding of the Democratic Transition in Hungary, 1989-90?
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