Adjusting Winning-Percentage Standard Deviations and a Measure of Competitive Balance for Home Advantage

Gregory A Trandel; Joel G Maxcy

doi:10.2202/1559-0410.1297

Article

Adjusting Winning-Percentage Standard Deviations and a Measure of Competitive Balance for Home Advantage

Published/Copyright: January 13, 2011

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From the journal Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Volume 7 Issue 1

One measure of sports league competitive balance uses a ratio: the standard deviation of team winning percentages is divided by the so-called ideal standard deviation, which assumes a game between evenly-skilled teams is equally likely to be won by either team. In fact, a team is more likely to win when playing at home than when playing on the road. The extent of this advantage differs across sports leagues. Home advantage reduces the variability of season-long team records. Ignoring home advantage biases upward the traditionally measured ideal standard deviation and bias downward the ratio of standard deviations. The authors derive a balanced league standard deviation formula that accounts for home advantage, use it to recompute the ratio of standard deviations for major sports leagues, and consider how the adjustment affects comparisons of competitive balance across those leagues.

Keywords: home advantage; competitive balance; winning percentage; standard deviation

Published Online: 2011-1-13

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Articles in the same Issue

https://doi.org/10.2202/1559-0410.1297

Keywords for this article

home advantage; competitive balance; winning percentage; standard deviation