An Extended Grey Model GM(1, 1, exp(bk)) and Its Application in Chinese Civil Air Passenger Volume Prediction
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Maolin Cheng
,
Guojun Shi
Abstract
In grey models, GM(1, 1) is an important prediction model. The grey model GM(1, 1) has good prediction results in the case original data change exponentially at a low speed. However in practical cases sometimes, original data show exponential changes or approximately exponential changes change at a high speed. In these cases, the grey model GM(1, 1) has poor prediction results because the data fail to meet the laws of traditional model. Therefore, the paper proposes an extended grey model GM(1, 1, ebk) and its modeling method. In the final section, the paper builds grey models of GM(1, 1, ebk) for a practical problem and the results show the grey model proposed has greatly improved simulation and prediction accuracy compared with the traditional model.
Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (11401418)
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Articles in the same Issue
- Coupling Degree Evaluation of China’s Internet Financial Ecosystem Based on Entropy Method and Principal Component Analysis
- A Two-factor Model of Intra-industry Trade: A Demonstration of Robustness of Krugman’s (1980) Model
- Technological Innovation, Regional Heterogeneity and Marine Economic Development — Analysis of Empirical Data Based on China’s Coastal Provinces and Cities
- Optimal Tracking Control for Discrete-time Systems with Time-delay Based on the Preview Control Method
- Study on the Performance Evaluation of Expatriate Technician in Multinational Corporations
- Strategies for Construction of Majors in Universities with Different Characteristic Based on Social Needs
- An Extended Grey Model GM(1, 1, exp(bk)) and Its Application in Chinese Civil Air Passenger Volume Prediction
