Startseite Non-equidistance DGM(1,1) Model Based on the Concave Sequence and Its Application to Predict the China’s Per Capita Natural Gas Consumption
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Non-equidistance DGM(1,1) Model Based on the Concave Sequence and Its Application to Predict the China’s Per Capita Natural Gas Consumption

  • Xinhai Kong EMAIL logo , Yong Zhao und Jiajia Chen
Veröffentlicht/Copyright: 26. September 2018
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Abstract

Although the grey forecasting model has been successfully adopted in various fields and demonstrated promising results, the literatures show its performance could be further improved, such as for the DGM(1,1) model, based on a concave sequence, the modeling error will be larger. In this paper, firstly the definition of sequence convexity is given out, and it is proved that the output sequence of DGM(1,1) model is a convex sequence. Next, the residual change law of DGM(1,1) model based on the concave sequence is discussed, and the non-equidistance DGM(1,1) model is proposed. Finally, by introducing the symmetry transformation, a concave sequence is transformed into a convex sequence, called the symmetric sequence of the concave sequence, and then construct the non-equidistance DGM(1,1) model based on the convex sequence. The example results show that the novel method is more accurate than the direct modeling for a concave sequence.


Supported by the Natural Fund of Education Department of Sichuan Province (14ZB0388) and the Key Topic of Oil and Gas Development Research Center of Sichuan Province (SKA-02)


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Received: 2017-09-07
Accepted: 2017-12-07
Published Online: 2018-09-26

© 2018 Walter De Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

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