Abstract
Based on the system dynamics (SD) model, this paper puts forward a quantitative method to evaluate the earthquake emergency plan in China. Firstly, we analyze the disaster system structure and the content of plan. Using the analysis results, we establish a system dynamics (SD) model and then carry out its simulation. According to the simulation results, the rescue effect using the plan of 2012 is better than that of 2006. From the policy level, in order to reduce loss, government should maintain communication smoothly, improve the ability of self and mutual help, strengthen the management of public opinion, and pay more attention to secondary disasters.
References
[1] Deng Q D, Zhang Y M, Huan W L, et al. The main features of seismic activity and seismic geology in China. Chinese Science Bulletin, 1978, 23(4): 193–199.Search in Google Scholar
[2] Li Y Y. Emergency plan management. Beijing: Peking University Press, 2013.Search in Google Scholar
[3] Zou Y J. Development, experience and enlightenment of foreign emergency management. Journal of Catastrophology, 2008, 23(1): 96–101.Search in Google Scholar
[4] National Incident Management System. http://www.fema.gov/pdf/emergency/nims/NIMS_core.pdf.Search in Google Scholar
[5] National Response Framework. http://www.fema.gov/pdf/emergency/nrf/nrf-core.pdf.Search in Google Scholar
[6] Revision and Release of National Earthquake Emergency Plan. http://www.cea.gov.cn/publish/dizhenj/124/215/218/20121128101734312469112/index.html.Search in Google Scholar
[7] Yang M Y, Song F. Discussion on the scientific nature, operation ability and system of preparatory plans for earthquake emergency. Recent Developments in World Seismology, 2002(1): 1–5.Search in Google Scholar
[8] Cong P T, Chen C E, Bo J S. Scenarios analysis on earthquake emergency preparedness plans for Daqing oilfield. South China Journal of Selsmology, 2007, 27(2): 49–55.Search in Google Scholar
[9] Zhang Q, Gao Y F. The establishment and perfection of the earthquake emergency preparedness in China — Consideration of the operation of the earthquake emergency preparedness in wenchuan earthquake. Journal of Institute of Disaster Prevention, 2009, 11(3): 77–79, 83.Search in Google Scholar
[10] Du J, Wu Z Y. Present condition analysis of earthquake emergency predetermined plan in China. Journal of Institute of Disaster Prevention, 2011, 13(2): 71–75.Search in Google Scholar
[11] Zhang Z, Wang J J, Chen H. Analysis on the problems in national earthquake contingency plan based on large earthquakes rescue. Journal of Catastrophology, 2011, 26(4): 139–142.Search in Google Scholar
[12] Xu J, Nyerges T L, Nie G. Modeling and representation for earthquake emergency response knowledge: Perspective for working with geo-ontology. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 2014, 28(1): 185–205.10.1080/13658816.2013.845893Search in Google Scholar
[13] Grathwohl M, Bertrand F, Rousselot B F. A new application for description logics: Disaster management. Proc of the International Workshop on Description Logics Linkoping, 1999.Search in Google Scholar
[14] Hoogendoorn M, Jonker C M, Popova V, et al. Formal modelling and comparing of disaster plans//Proceedings of the Second International ISCRAM Conference, 2005.Search in Google Scholar
[15] Mors A T, Valk J, Witteveen C. An event-based task framework for disaster planning and decision//support Iscram — International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, 2005: 151–153.Search in Google Scholar
[16] CastroSilva M V, Medeiros J. Model of performance indicators in nuclear energy emergency plan assessment applied to emergency exercises. Procedia Computer Science, 2015, 55: 288–297.10.1016/j.procs.2015.07.100Search in Google Scholar
[17] Li Q, Deng Y, Liu C, et al. Modeling and analysis of subway fire emergency response: An empirical study. Safety Science, 2016, 84: 171–180.10.1016/j.ssci.2015.12.003Search in Google Scholar
[18] Wang Q F. System dynamics. Shanghai University of Finance and Economics Press, Shanghai, 2009.Search in Google Scholar
[19] Liu X R, Su J Y, Wang W, et al. A dynamic model for buried casualties and emergency rescue in densely populated areas after earthquake. Systems Engineering — Theory & Practice, 2015, 35(11): 2957–2967.Search in Google Scholar
[20] Ye S S, Zhai G F. A review on seismic economic loss estimation. Progress in Geography, 2010, 29(6): 684–692.Search in Google Scholar
[21] Tan C Y. A criterion for earthquake warning: Prediction of death toll from various earthquakes. Earthquake Research in China, 1989(4): 83–90.Search in Google Scholar
[22] Zhang L, Wu M, Chen G Q. The present situation and thinking of public opinion about earthquake information. Recent Developments in World Seismology, 2015(1): 15–18.Search in Google Scholar
[23] Gao J G. Discussion on earthquake emergency response term. Journal of Catastrophology, 2004, 19(1): 13–17.Search in Google Scholar
[24] Zhang W J, Jiang L X, Li X J, et al. Exploration of mortality and economy vulnerability of Wenchuan earthquake. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2013(2): 197–204.Search in Google Scholar
[25] Chang J E, Jiang T L. Research on the weight of coefficient through analytic hierarchy process. Journal of Wuhan University of Technology (Information and Management Engineering), 2007, 29(1): 153–156.Search in Google Scholar
[26] Han W B, Chen W F. Enlightenments from the Emergency Rescuing in the 1976 Tangshan earthquake. Earthquake Research in Sichuan, 2008(1): 1–3, 8.Search in Google Scholar
[27] Liu X Y. Emergency handling and public opinion guidance. Beijing: China Intercontinental Press, 2013.Search in Google Scholar
[28] Miao H Q, Liu H P, Fan J S, et al. Secondary disasters, hazard chains and the curing in Wenchuan earthquake-hit area, West China. Journal of Geological Hazards and Environment Preservation, 2008, 19(4): 1–5.Search in Google Scholar
[29] Zhao H, Bai X F, Zhang F H, et al. Requirement and application preliminary study of the emergency communication of the destructive earthquakes. Journal of Seismological Research, 2012, 35(1): 139–144.Search in Google Scholar
© 2017 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston
Articles in the same Issue
- Evaluation of Earthquake Emergency Plan Based on SD Model
- Fold Bifurcation Caused by Pollution Emission in an OLG Economy
- The Measure Method of Complaint Theme Influence in View of Netizens’ Emotional Resonance
- Consensus of Heterogeneous Multi-Agent Systems with Intermittent Communication
- An Integrated Research Framework for Effect of EWOM
- Multi-Period Optimal Capacity Strategy Based on Consumer Behavior Involved in Social Media
- A New Evaluation Method of Node Importance in Directed Weighted Complex Networks
- Consensus for Heterogeneous Multi-Agent Systems with Directed Network Topologies
Articles in the same Issue
- Evaluation of Earthquake Emergency Plan Based on SD Model
- Fold Bifurcation Caused by Pollution Emission in an OLG Economy
- The Measure Method of Complaint Theme Influence in View of Netizens’ Emotional Resonance
- Consensus of Heterogeneous Multi-Agent Systems with Intermittent Communication
- An Integrated Research Framework for Effect of EWOM
- Multi-Period Optimal Capacity Strategy Based on Consumer Behavior Involved in Social Media
- A New Evaluation Method of Node Importance in Directed Weighted Complex Networks
- Consensus for Heterogeneous Multi-Agent Systems with Directed Network Topologies