3. “The Defeat of the Pollsters”: The Epic Fail of 1948

Kapitel in diesem Buch

1. Frontmatter i
2. Contents ix
3. List of Figures, Tables, and Boxes x
4. Acknowledgments xiii
5. Introduction: Of Pollsters, Journalists, and Presidential Elections 1
6. 1. Of Poll-Bashing Journalists and the “Babe Ruth” of Survey Research 21
7. 2. “A Time of Polls Gone Mad”: The Literary Digest Debacle of 1936 40
8. 3. “The Defeat of the Pollsters”: The Epic Fail of 1948 62
9. 4. A Tie “Would Suit Them Fine”: The 1952 Landslide Pollsters Did Not Foresee 85
10. 5. The “Close Race That Never Happened”: Miscalling the 1980 Election 108
11. 6. “Television’s Version of ‘Dewey Defeats Truman’”: The Trifecta of 2000 131
12. 7. “President Kerry”: Exit Polls Misfire in 2004 148
13. 8. “Gallup vs. the World”: Pointing the Wrong Way in 2012 165
14. 9. “The Night That Wasn’t Supposed to Happen”: The Shock Election of 2016 183
15. Conclusion: Will It Happen Again? 205
16. Notes 213
17. Select Bibliography 297
18. Index 305