Abstract
The article criticises current conceptual frameworks focused on the evaluation of the performance of electoral systems. It offers a new tool allowing researchers to measure the size of the deviation of electoral outcomes from theoretical expectations. The index d=log[NS/(MS)1/6] is built on the Seat Product (Taagepera, Rein (2007b) Predicting Party Sizes: The Logic of Simple Electoral Systems. New York: Oxford University Press) and captures the deviations of electoral outcomes from predictions solely on the basis of two institutional factors – average district magnitude (M) and size of assembly (S). The theoretical background of index d is explained, and its reliability is further supported by conventional econometric methods based on empirical data.
Appendix
List of Included Elections.
Country | Elections | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Armenia | 2007 | 2012 | ||||||||
Australia | 1946 | 1949 | 1951 | 1954 | 1955 | 1958 | 1961 | 1963 | 1966 | |
1969 | 1972 | 1974 | 1975 | 1977 | 1980 | 1983 | 1984 | 1987 | ||
1990 | 1993 | 1996 | 1998 | 2001 | 2004 | 2007 | 2010 | 2013 | ||
Austria | 1949 | 1953 | 1956 | 1959 | 1962 | 1966 | 1970 | 1971 | 1975 | |
1979 | 1983 | 1986 | 1990 | 1994 | 1995 | 1999 | 2002 | 2006 | ||
2008 | 2013 | |||||||||
Belgium | 1946 | 1949 | 1950 | 1954 | 1958 | 1961 | 1965 | 1968 | 1971 | |
1974 | 1977 | 1978 | 1981 | 1985 | 1987 | 1991 | 1995 | 1999 | ||
2003 | 2007 | 2010 | 2014 | |||||||
Bulgaria | 1991 | 1994 | 1997 | 2001 | 2005 | 2009 | 2013 | 2014 | 2017 | |
Canada | 1945 | 1949 | 1953 | 1957 | 1958 | 1962 | 1963 | 1965 | 1968 | |
1972 | 1974 | 1979 | 1980 | 1984 | 1988 | 1993 | 1997 | 2000 | ||
2004 | 2006 | 2008 | 2011 | 2015 | ||||||
Croatia | 2000 | 2003 | 2007 | 2011 | 2015 | 2016 | ||||
Cyprus | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | |||||
Czech Republic | 1990 | 1992 | 1996 | 1998 | 2002 | 2006 | 2010 | 2013 | ||
Denmark | 1945 | 1947 | 1950 | 1953 | 1953 | 1957 | 1960 | 1964 | 1966 | |
1968 | 1971 | 1973 | 1975 | 1977 | 1979 | 1981 | 1984 | 1987 | ||
1988 | 1990 | 1994 | 1998 | 2001 | 2005 | 2007 | 2011 | 2015 | ||
Estonia | 1992 | 1995 | 1999 | 2003 | 2007 | 2011 | 2015 | |||
Finland | 1945 | 1948 | 1951 | 1954 | 1958 | 1962 | 1966 | 1970 | 1972 | |
1975 | 1979 | 1983 | 1987 | 1991 | 1995 | 1999 | 2003 | 2007 | ||
2011 | 2015 | |||||||||
France | 1946 | 1951 | 1956 | 1958 | 1962 | 1967 | 1968 | 1973 | 1978 | |
1981 | 1986 | 1988 | 1993 | 1997 | 2002 | 2007 | 2012 | |||
Iceland | 1946 | 1949 | 1953 | 1956 | 1959 | 1959 | 1963 | 1967 | 1971 | |
1974 | 1978 | 1979 | 1983 | 1987 | 1991 | 1995 | 1999 | 2003 | ||
2007 | 2009 | 2013 | 2016 | |||||||
Ireland | 1948 | 1951 | 1954 | 1957 | 1961 | 1965 | 1969 | 1973 | 1977 | |
1981 | 1982 | 1982 | 1987 | 1989 | 1992 | 1997 | 2002 | 2007 | ||
2011 | 2016 | |||||||||
Israel | 1949 | 1951 | 1955 | 1959 | 1961 | 1965 | 1969 | 1973 | 1977 | |
1981 | 1984 | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 1999 | 2003 | 2006 | 2009 | ||
2013 | 2015 | |||||||||
Italy | 1946 | 1948 | 1953 | 1958 | 1963 | 1968 | 1972 | 1976 | 1979 | |
1983 | 1987 | 1992 | ||||||||
Japan | 1960 | 1963 | 1967 | 1969 | 1972 | 1976 | 1979 | 1980 | 1983 | |
1986 | 1990 | 1993 | ||||||||
Latvia | 1998 | 2002 | 2006 | 2010 | 2011 | 2014 | ||||
Luxembourg | 1945 | 1948 | 1951 | 1954 | 1959 | 1964 | 1968 | 1974 | 1979 | |
1984 | 1989 | 1994 | 1999 | 2004 | 2009 | 2013 | ||||
Macedonia | 1990 | 1994 | 2002 | 2006 | 2008 | 2011 | 2014 | 2016 | ||
Malta | 1996 | 1998 | 2003 | 2008 | 2013 | 2017 | ||||
Moldavia | 1994 | 1998 | 2001 | 2005 | 2009 | 2009 | 2010 | |||
Montenegro | 1990 | 1992 | 1996 | 1998 | 2001 | 2002 | 2006 | 2009 | 2012 | |
Netherlands | 1946 | 1948 | 1952 | 1956 | 1959 | 1963 | 1967 | 1971 | 1972 | |
1977 | 1981 | 1982 | 1986 | 1989 | 1994 | 1998 | 2002 | 2003 | ||
2006 | 2010 | 2012 | 2017 | |||||||
New Zealand | 1946 | 1949 | 1951 | 1954 | 1957 | 1960 | 1963 | 1966 | 1969 | |
1972 | 1975 | 1978 | 1981 | 1984 | 1987 | 1990 | 1993 | |||
Norway | 1945 | 1949 | 1953 | 1957 | 1961 | 1965 | 1969 | 1973 | 1977 | |
1981 | 1985 | 1989 | 1993 | 1997 | 2001 | 2005 | 2009 | 2013 | ||
Poland | 1991 | 1993 | 1997 | 2001 | 2005 | 2007 | 2011 | 2015 | ||
Portugal | 1975 | 1976 | 1979 | 1980 | 1983 | 1985 | 1987 | 1991 | 1995 | |
1999 | 2002 | 2005 | 2009 | 2011 | 2015 | |||||
Romania | 1990 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | |||||
Serbia | 1990 | 1992 | 1993 | 1997 | 2000 | 2003 | 2007 | 2008 | 2012 | |
2014 | 2016 | |||||||||
Slovakia | 1990 | 1992 | 1994 | 1998 | 2002 | 2006 | 2010 | 2012 | 2016 | |
Slovenia | 1990 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | 2011 | 2014 | ||
South Africa | 1994 | 1999 | 2004 | 2009 | 2014 | |||||
Spain | 1977 | 1979 | 1982 | 1986 | 1989 | 1993 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | |
2008 | 2011 | 2015 | 2016 | |||||||
Sweden | 1948 | 1952 | 1956 | 1958 | 1960 | 1964 | 1968 | 1970 | 1973 | |
1976 | 1979 | 1982 | 1985 | 1988 | 1991 | 1994 | 1998 | 2002 | ||
2006 | 2010 | 2014 | ||||||||
Switzerland | 1947 | 1951 | 1955 | 1959 | 1963 | 1967 | 1971 | 1975 | 1979 | |
1983 | 1987 | 1991 | 1995 | 1999 | 2003 | 2007 | 2011 | 2015 | ||
Turkey | 1950 | 1954 | 1957 | 1961 | 1965 | 1969 | 1973 | 1977 | 1983 | |
1987 | 1991 | 1995 | 1999 | 2002 | 2007 | 2011 | 2015 | 2015 | ||
Ukraine | 1994 | 2006 | 2007 | |||||||
UK | 1945 | 1950 | 1951 | 1955 | 1959 | 1964 | 1966 | 1970 | 1974 | |
1974 | 1979 | 1983 | 1987 | 1992 | 1997 | 2001 | 2005 | 2010 | ||
2015 | 2017 | |||||||||
USA | 1948 | 1952 | 1956 | 1960 | 1964 | 1968 | 1972 | 1976 | 1980 | |
1984 | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 |
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Article note
This article was written at Masaryk University with the support of the Specific University Research Grant provided by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic.
©2018 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston
Artikel in diesem Heft
- Frontmatter
- Research Articles
- The Demobilization of Class Politics in Denmark: The Social Democratic Party’s Group-Based Appeals 1961–2004
- Theoretical Expectations and Actual Outcomes of Electoral Systems: How to Measure the Size of the Deviation?
- The Merits of the Synthesis between Theories: An Explanation of Policy Change in European Regulation on Pesticides through the Multiple Stream Framework and the Stage Model
- The Typological Framework of Myths as a Tool for Studying Political Thought
Artikel in diesem Heft
- Frontmatter
- Research Articles
- The Demobilization of Class Politics in Denmark: The Social Democratic Party’s Group-Based Appeals 1961–2004
- Theoretical Expectations and Actual Outcomes of Electoral Systems: How to Measure the Size of the Deviation?
- The Merits of the Synthesis between Theories: An Explanation of Policy Change in European Regulation on Pesticides through the Multiple Stream Framework and the Stage Model
- The Typological Framework of Myths as a Tool for Studying Political Thought