Abstract
This paper contributes to the growing empirical work on deliberation in legislatures by proposing a novel approach to analysing parliamentary hearings using both thematic and topic modelling textual analysis software. We explore variations in deliberative quality across economic policy type (fiscal policy, monetary policy and financial stability) and across parliamentary chambers (Commons and Lords) in UK select committee oversight hearings during the 2010–2015 Parliament. Our overall focus is not only to suggest a multi-method approach to the textual analysis of parliamentary data, but also to explore more substantive aspects of parliamentary oversight, such as: (1) the extent to which oversight varies between unelected and elected policy makers; and (2) whether parliamentarians conduct oversight more forcefully or more along partisan lines when they are challenging fellow politicians as opposed to central bank officials. Our findings suggest consistent differences in deliberative styles between types of hearings (fiscal, monetary, financial stability) and between chambers (Commons, Lords).
Appendix
A List of Hearings
House of Commons Treasury Select Committee:
Monetary Policy Hearings:
28 July 2010, Inflation Report
10 November 2010, Inflation Report
1 March 2011, Inflation Report
28 June 2011, Inflation Report
25 October 2011 [Quantitative Easing]
28 November 2011, Inflation Report
29 February 2012, Inflation Report
26 June 2012, Inflation Report
27 November 2012, Inflation Report
25 June 2013, Inflation Report
12 September 2013, Inflation Report
26 November 2013, Inflation Report
24 June 2014, Inflation Report
10 September 2014, Inflation Report
25 November 2014, Inflation Report
24 February 2015, Inflation Report
Fiscal Policy Hearings:
15 July 2010 [Budget]
4 November 2010 [Spending Round]
29 March 2011 [Budget]
27 March 2012 [Budget]
26 March 2013 [Budget]
11 July 2013 [Spending Round]
17 December 2014 Autumn Statement
Financial Stability Reports and Hearings 2011–2015
17 January 2012: (December 2011 FSR)
17 July 2012: (June 2012 FSR)
15 January 2013: (November 2012 FSR)
2 July 2013: (June 2013 FSR)
15 January 2014: (November 2013 FSR)
15 July 2014: (June 2014 FSR)
14 January 2015: (December 2014 FSR)
House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee:
Monetary Policy Hearings:
16 November 2010: Meeting with the Governor of the Bank of England
27 March 2012: Economic Outlook (Meeting with Governor and MPC members)
17 December 2013: Meeting with the Governor of the Bank of England
10 March 2015: Meeting with the Governor of the Bank of England
Fiscal Policy Hearings:
30 November 2010: Economic Outlook (Meeting with Chancellor and Treasury Staff)
8 December 2011: Economic Outlook (Meeting with Chancellor and Treasury Staff)
4 February 2014: Meeting with the Chancellor of the Exchequer
B Model Selection in STM
With respect to fitting the algorithm to the corpus, two features of STM should be noted. First, the user must define the number of topics, K, prior to the analysis. In this case, we opt for a model with K=30 topics after exploring the performances for alternative specifications ranging from 25 to 40 topics. Such topic range was suggested by exploring model performance for the held-out likelihood, a commonly used metric of model fit for topic model (Wallach et al. 2009), for the dataset of interest. Furthermore, as mentioned a key feature of STM is the possibility of comparing topic prevalence across hearings. For this reason, we fit the algorithm to the a dataset comprising the five hearings combined.
The held-out likelihood is the probability that a given model correctly predicts a set of words intentionally left out from the estimation, namely the estimation of words probability after some of those words have been removed from the text. The essence of this method is to check which model gives the best out-of-sample predictions, i.e. it is able to better explain the left-out set of words.
The held-out likelihood for a sequence of K=5, 10, 15 … 80 topics is reported in Figure 6. The figure shows that the held-out likelihood is low for models with less than 20 topics, it remains broadly stable for K between 20 to 40 topics, and it marginally increases afterwards. While Figure 6 suggests a model with 80 topics would provide the best model fit among those considered, increasing the number of topics to 80 would probably imply loss of generality for the interpretation, as topics become over-identified (Grün and Hornik 2011: p. 13). In general, interpretability is also an important criterion for choosing the number of topics (Blei 2012).

Held-out likelihood for K=5, 10, …, 80.
Taking these considerations into account, we opt for a model using a spectral initialisation (Roberts et al. 2014a) with K=30 topics after exploring the performances for alternative specifications ranging from 25 to 40 topics (the shaded grey area in Figure 6). Figure 6 suggests models in this range provide a reasonable fit of the text; at the same time, the limited number of topics should allow direct comparison with the semantic classes derived in Alceste and T-Lab.
C Matching Software Outputs
Alceste and Structural Topic Model:
TSC Monetary Policy:
Alceste class 1: lend, small, bank, size, enterprise
Topic 2: bank lend small fund credit compani busi
Alceste label: Bank of England Lending Facilities
STM: Bank Lending to SMEs
Alceste class 2: growth econom income product
Topic 1: growth economi product recoveri see unemploy data pick labourmarket
Alceste label: Real Economy, Productivity & Competitiveness
STM: Labour Market/Economic Growth
Alceste class 3: monetary_polic; committee, discuss, decision
Topic 29: view discuss decis committe differ meet whether member monetarypolicycommitte
Alceste Label: Monetary Policy Decisions & Decision Making Process
STM label: MPC Process and Transparency
Alceste class 4: inflation forecast target look expect
Topic 6: inflat percent expect target forecast look mediumterm rise forwardguid will guidanc
Alceste Label: Inflation Forecast, Expectations & Outlook for Inflation
STM label: Path of Expected Inflation
Alceste class 5: guidance, interest_rate, threshold, tighten, forward_guidan
Topic 6: inflat percent expect target forecast look mediumterm rise forwardguid guidanc
Alceste Label: Forward Guidance & Outlook for Monetary Policy
STM label: Path of Expected Inflation
TSC Fiscal Policy:
Alceste class 1: tax income benefit people percent system
Topic 27: tax percent peopl increas pound cut work measur benefit take fair system incom
Alceste Label: Housing & Household Indebtedness
STM label: Fiscal Policy/Tax and Benefits
Alceste class 2: department, cabinet contract ring process secretary minister
Topic 4: process minist involv consult secretari treasuri prime chief offici part
Alceste Label: Budget Process and Role of Ministers
STM label: LIBOR
Alceste class 3: committee chancellor brief office_for_budg budget inform
Topic 14: committe think made interest public good inform
Alceste Label: Budget Leaks
STM label: Accountability to the TSC
Alceste class 4: small sector businesses private bank fund regional
Topic 5: invest job busi project privatesector will new industri creat region
Alceste Label: Economic Effects of Budget
STM label: Real Economy/Investment
Alceste class 5: deficit, structural, fiscal budget_deficit, fiscal, world
Topic 15: economi countri debt econom deficit problem export challeng growth world
Alceste Label: Public Deficit and Debt
STM label: Rebalancing of Debt and Imbalances
TSC Financial Stability:
Alceste class 1: capital bank asset ratio sheet institution
Topic 26: bank capit liquid balancesheet account asset fsa crisi posit hold
Alceste Label: Bank Capital, Leverage, & Lending Capacity
STM label: (Reform of) Bank Capital
Alceste class 2: price, market, econom, debt mortgage rate interest_rates rise income
Topic 7: scheme hous will new home mortgag suppli housepric build increas
Alceste Label: Housing & Household Indebtedness
STM label: Housing Market/New Home Building
Alceste class 3: committee court board decision oversight chancellor parliament report
Topic 23: report suggest evid review respons independ court board oversightcommitte
Alceste Label: Governance of the Bank of England
STM label: Bank of England Governance/Oversight Committee
Alceste class 4: ask governor thank answer andrew subject helpful conference new_york_fed
Topic 4: libor cabinet perman depart discuss contract situat bba work
Alceste Label: Barclays and LIBOR
STM label: LIBOR
EAC Monetary Policy:
Alceste class 1: assets asset_purchas gilt yield pension purchase private
Topic 11: interestr, mean, therefor, might, effect, pension, rise, obvious, suppos
Alceste Label: Pensions, Savings & Annuities
STM label: Transmission of Policy to the Economy
Alceste class 2: inflation growth percent interest_rate price consistent
Topic 6: inflat percent expect target forecast look mediumterm
Alceste Label: Real Economy & Economic Forecast
STM label: Path of Expected Inflation
Alceste class 3: prudent financial_policy prudential_regu supervis prudential_regu financial_servic financial_stabili
Topic 10: risk financialst take financialpolicycommitte tool perspect mortgag type potenti term fpc debt respons valu action stabil
Alceste Label: Financial Stability & Macro Prudential Policy
STM label: FPC/Household Debt
Alceste class 4: want political auditors competitivenes reform politic
Topic 26: air system incom analysi impact make includ chang welfar way
Alceste Label: Banking & Bank Regulation
STM label: (Reform of) Bank Capital
Alceste class 5: fail buffer big institut border trouble bail systemically taxpayer
Topic 25: bank regul problem fail issu structur big competit new way import system rule
Alceste Label: Too Big to Fail & Bank Resolution
STM label: (Reform of) Bank Regulation
Alceste class 6: test ring fence stress standard resilient individual capitalised
Topic 17: fpc power set institut need leverageratio capit system stresstest will bank
Alceste Label: Stress Testing Banks & Bank Lending
STM label: FPC/Bank Capital and Stress Tests
EAC Fiscal Policy:
Alceste class 1: gas regime shale local oil region energy
Topic 5: region particular peopl support area price part help publicsector countri oil
Alceste Label: Energy, Energy Prices, Gas & Shale Oil
STM label: Real Economy/Investment
Alceste class 2: percent medium small credit enterprise
Topic 16: rate cost peopl pay borrow high look
Alceste Label: Real Economy & Bank Lending
STM label: Borrowing Costs/Transmission of Monetary Policy
Alceste class 3: financial regul service european_unio bank prudent legislat centre proper
Topic 12: nation countri control requir european will london british legisl europeanunion
Alceste Label: Financial Services & Regulation
STM label: European Union
Alceste class 4: scotland scottish establish arrangement fiscal
Topic 20: unit state kingdom reserv scotland global relat gdp
Alceste Label: Scotland & Regions
STM label: Scotland
Alceste and T-Lab:
TSC Monetary Policy:
Alceste class 1: lend, small, bank, size, enterprise
T-Lab class 2: bank lend small enterprise medium-sized fund
Alceste label: Bank of England Lending Facilities
T-Lab label: Bank Lending to SMEs
Alceste class 2: growth econom income product
T-Lab class 4: growth price interest_rates house income consumption
Alceste label: Real Economy, Productivity & Competitiveness
T-Lab label: Real Economy and House Price Growth
Alceste class 3: monetary_polic committee discuss decision
T-Lab class 5: gilt quantitatice_easing monetary_policy_committee asset
Alceste Label: Monetary Policy Decisions & Decision Making Process
T-Lab label: Quantitative Easing Discussions
Alceste class 4: inflation forecast target look expect
T-Lab class 1: inflation percent forecast labour target expectation
Alceste Label: Inflation Forecast, Expectations & Outlook for Inflation
T-Lab label: Outlook fro Inflation and Inflation Expectations
Alceste class 5: guidance, interest_rate, threshold, tighten, forward_guidan
UNMATCHED
TSC Fiscal Policy:
Alceste class 1: tax income benefit people percent system
T-Lab class 4: tax rate pounds income billion increase measure oil
Alceste Label: Housing & Household Indebtedness
T-Lab label: Income Tax Rates
Alceste class 2: department, cabinet contract ring process secretary minister
T-Lab class 3: department process minister secretary contract prime chief
Alceste Label: Budget Process and Role of Ministers
T-Lab label: Ministerial/Cabinet Involvement in the Budget Process
Alceste class 3: committee chancellor brief office_for_budg budget inform
UNMATCHED
Alceste class 4: small sector businesses private bank fund regional
T-Lab class 5: bank banks committee small business lend
Alceste Label: Economic Effects of Budget
T-Lab Label: Bank Lending to SMEs
Alceste class 5: deficit, structural, fiscal budget_deficit, fiscal, world
T-Lab class 2: economy debt deficit economic country fiscal structural UK
Alceste Label: Public Deficit and Debt
T-Lab label: Fiscal Deficit and Government Debt
TSC Financial Stability:
Alceste class 1: capital bank asset ratio sheet institution
UNMATCHED
Alceste class 2: price, market, econom, debt mortgage rate interest_rates rise income
T-Lab class 1: risk lend mortgage price house capital UK asset economy debt
Alceste Label: Housing & Household Indebtedness
T-Lab label: Bank Stress Tests, Mortgage Lending and House Prices
Alceste class 3: committee court board decision oversight chancellor parliament report
T-Lab class 2: Committee oversight member M_P_C decision court view
Alceste Label: Governance of the Bank of England
T-Lab label: Bank of England Governance and FPC/MPC
Alceste class 4: ask governor thank answer andrew subject helpful conference new_york_fed
T-Lab class 3: L_I_B_O_R B_B_A barclays evidence consultation week dark
Alceste Label: Barclays and LIBOR
T-Lab label: LIBOR
EAC Monetary Policy:
Alceste class 1: assets asset_purchas gilt yield pension purchase private
T-Lab class 5: asset pension gilt yield annuity purchase buy Q_E
Alceste Label: Pensions, Savings & Annuities
T-Lab label: QE and Pension Investment
Alceste class 2: inflation growth percent interest_rate price consistent
T-Lab class 1: inflation growth economy target percent productivity expectation price
Alceste Label: Real Economy & Economic Forecasts
T-Lab label: Inflation Outlook and the Economy
Alceste class 3: prudent financial_policy prudential_regu supervis prudential_regu financial_servic financial_stabili
T-Lab class 4: leverage institution ratio system regulation prudential supervision Basel Alceste Label: Financial Stability & Macro Prudential Policy
T-Lab label: Leverage Ratio for Banks
Alceste class 4: want political auditors competitivenes reform politic
UNMATCHED
Alceste class 5: fail buffer big institut border trouble bail systemically taxpayer
T-Lab class 2: banks capital banking_system debt requirement Irish global lend
Alceste Label: Too Big to Fail & Bank Resolution
T-Lab label: Bank Capital and Lending
Alceste class 6: test ring fence stress standard resilient individual capitalised
UNMATCHED
EAC Fiscal Policy:
Alceste class 1: gas regime shale local oil region energy
T-Lab class 1: tax impact carbon spend decade benefit local rate pricel
Alceste Label: Energy, Energy Prices, Gas & Shale Oil
T-Lab label: Tax Measures (notably energy)
Alceste class 2: percent medium small credit enterprise
UNMATCHED
Alceste class 3: financial regul service european_unio bank prudent legislat centre proper
T-Lab class 3: financial bank service Vickers sector banks regulation ask regulator
Alceste Label: Financial Services & Regulation
T-Lab label: EU/Financial Services/Regulation
Alceste class 4: scotland scottish establish arrangement fiscal
T-Lab class 4: fiscal union scotland vote monetary political scottish bad
Alceste Label: Scotland & Regions
T-Lab label: Scotland
D 25-class T-Lab Clustering
Characteristic Words and Labels for a 25-Class Thematic Analysis.
| Characteristic words | Label | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | labour capacity spare market gap | Spare Capacity and Labour Markets |
| 2 | benefit housing House child claim | Unemployment and Housing Benefits |
| 3 | banks scheme lend fund incentive | Lending and Bank Lending Scheme |
| 4 | F_P_C power P_R_A board recommendation | FPC/PRA |
| 5 | inflation target percent remit expectation | Inflation Targeting and Expectations |
| 6 | billion plan pounds spend set_out | Public Speding and Budget |
| 7 | union monetary arrangement currency euro | EMU and Fiscal Integration |
| 8 | yield gilt asset_purchases Q_E unwind | Quantitative Easing |
| 9 | treasury official secretary minister press | Treasury Department and Officials |
| 10 | economy export rebalancing consumption recovery | International Trade and Demand |
| 11 | reserves deposit hong G_D_P kong | Foreign Currency Reserves |
| 12 | unite united rest kingdom solution | United Kingdom |
| 13 | bond assets buy corporate purchase | Asset Purchasing |
| 14 | institution regulation capital leverage requirement | Leverage Ratios/Capital Requirements |
| 15 | interest_rates raise rate long-term low | Interest Rateqs |
| 16 | tax budget chancellor _YR_MARCH12 penny | Taxation (particularly income tax) |
| 17 | question answer ask quick _R_CHAIR | Questioning (disc.) |
| 18 | issue service governor majority financial | Finance and Scottish Independance |
| 19 | price risk inflation energy commodity | Price Changes and Inflation |
| 20 | growth productivity wage average data | Productivity and Wage Growth |
| 21 | public expenditure deficit decision political | Public Expenditure and the Defecit |
| 22 | home build local social building | Housing Policy |
| 23 | contingency event okay have– but– | Bank of England Contingency Planning |
| 24 | monetary policy guidance tighten stance | Path of Monetary Policy/Forward Guidance |
| 25 | small enterprise business medium-sized company | SMEs |
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©2017 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston
Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- Editor’s Note
- Editor’s Note
- Articles
- Unpacking Big Data in Education. A Research Framework
- A Semi-automatic Method to Retrieve Twitter Accounts
- Themes and Topics in Parliamentary Oversight Hearings: A New Direction in Textual Data Analysis
- How to Lose Cases and Influence People
- Policy and Voting
- Examining the Policy Learning Dynamics of Atypical Policies with an Application to State Preemption of Local Dog Laws
- Voting in Nigeria: Determinants of Turnout in the 2015 Presidential Election
Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- Editor’s Note
- Editor’s Note
- Articles
- Unpacking Big Data in Education. A Research Framework
- A Semi-automatic Method to Retrieve Twitter Accounts
- Themes and Topics in Parliamentary Oversight Hearings: A New Direction in Textual Data Analysis
- How to Lose Cases and Influence People
- Policy and Voting
- Examining the Policy Learning Dynamics of Atypical Policies with an Application to State Preemption of Local Dog Laws
- Voting in Nigeria: Determinants of Turnout in the 2015 Presidential Election