Abstract
In this paper the performance of different information criteria for simultaneous model class and lag order selection is evaluated using simulation studies. We focus on the ability of the criteria to distinguish linear and nonlinear models. In the simulation studies, we consider three different versions of the commonly known criteria AIC, SIC and AICc. In addition, we also assess the performance of WIC and evaluate the impact of the error term variance estimator. Our results confirm the findings of different authors that AIC and AICc favor nonlinear over linear models, whereas weighted versions of WIC and all versions of SIC are able to successfully distinguish linear and nonlinear models. However, the discrimination between different nonlinear model classes is more difficult. Nevertheless, the lag order selection is reliable. In general, information criteria involving the unbiased error term variance estimator overfit less and should be preferred to using the usual ML estimator of the error term variance.
Acknowledgments
The authors are grateful to two anonymous referees, the associate editor and the participants of the Statistische Woche in Hannover for helpful comments and suggestions which improved the paper. Financial support by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (http://www.dfg.de/index.jspDFG) under grant SI 745/9–1 is gratefully acknowledged.
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Supplemental Material:
The online version of this article (DOI: 10.1515/snde-2015-0026) offers supplementary material, available to authorized users.
©2016 by De Gruyter
Artikel in diesem Heft
- Frontmatter
- Research Articles
- Structural changes in inflation dynamics: multiple breaks at different dates for different parameters
- Price discovery in the markets for credit risk: a Markov switching approach
- House prices and monetary policy
- Estimating stochastic volatility models using realized measures
- Public debt and macroeconomic activity: a predictive analysis for advanced economies
- Information criteria for nonlinear time series models
Artikel in diesem Heft
- Frontmatter
- Research Articles
- Structural changes in inflation dynamics: multiple breaks at different dates for different parameters
- Price discovery in the markets for credit risk: a Markov switching approach
- House prices and monetary policy
- Estimating stochastic volatility models using realized measures
- Public debt and macroeconomic activity: a predictive analysis for advanced economies
- Information criteria for nonlinear time series models