Abstract
The problem of potential predictability of the temperature of the upper layer of the Arctic Ocean for the data of pre-industrial climate modelling run by the INM-CM5 Earth system model developed at the INM RAS is considered. The main attention is paid to the analysis of predictability of the phases of the dominant modes of low-frequency variability of the Arctic Ocean circulation. The initial estimate of its predictability is made by using the method of analogues and calculating the resonances of the invariant measure. Then this estimate is verified by direct ensemble calculations with the model. The results obtained indicate that the maximum predictability time interval reaches ten years for 15-year average values of heat content and corresponds to the states with maximum positive anomalies along the leading low-frequency variability modes.
Funding statement: Study of the Frobenius–Perron operator and resonances (Section 2 of the paper) was supported by the Moscow Center of Fundamental and Applied Mathematics (Agreement 075-15-2019-1624 with the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation). Estimates of potential predictability with analogues method and ensemble prognostic experiments (Sections 3 and 4) were performed at GOIN with support of RSF project 17-17-01295.
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© 2022 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston
Artikel in diesem Heft
- Frontmatter
- Development of a numerical stochastic model of joint spatio-temporal fields of weather parameters for the south part of the Baikal natural territory
- Discrete curvatures for planar curves based on Archimedes’ duality principle
- Predictability of the low-frequency modes of the Arctic Ocean heat content variability: a perfect model approach
- Optimal stochastic forcings for sensitivity analysis of linear dynamical systems
- On the multi-annual potential predictability of the Arctic Ocean climate state in the INM RAS climate model
Artikel in diesem Heft
- Frontmatter
- Development of a numerical stochastic model of joint spatio-temporal fields of weather parameters for the south part of the Baikal natural territory
- Discrete curvatures for planar curves based on Archimedes’ duality principle
- Predictability of the low-frequency modes of the Arctic Ocean heat content variability: a perfect model approach
- Optimal stochastic forcings for sensitivity analysis of linear dynamical systems
- On the multi-annual potential predictability of the Arctic Ocean climate state in the INM RAS climate model