Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic entails a medium- and long-run risk of heightened political conflict. In this short essay we distinguish four major consequences of COVID-19 that may fuel social tensions and political violence, namely i) spiking poverty, ii) education under stress, iii) potential for repression, and iv) reduced inter-dependence. After discussing them in turn, we will formulate policy recommendations on how to attenuate these risks.
Funding source: H2020 European Research Council
Award Identifier / Grant number: 677595
Acknowledgements
The author gratefully acknowledges financial support from the ERC Starting Grant POLICIES FOR PEACE-677595.
References
Collier, P., A. Hoeffler, and D. Rohner. 2009. “Beyond Greed and Grievance: Feasibility and Civil War.” Oxford Economic Papers 61 (1): 1–27, https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpp026.Suche in Google Scholar
Coyne, C., and Y. Yatsyshina. 2020. “Pandemic Police States.” Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2020-0021.Suche in Google Scholar
Dell, M., B. F. Jones, and B. A. Olken. 2014. “What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature.” Journal of Economic Literature 52 (3): 740–98, https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.52.3.740.Suche in Google Scholar
Durante, R., and E. Zhuravskaya. 2018. “Attack When the World is Not Watching? US News and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict.” Journal of Political Economy 126 (3): 1085–133, https://doi.org/10.1086/697202.Suche in Google Scholar
Guiso, L., H. Herrera, M. Morelli, and T. Sonno. 2020. “Economic Insecurity and the Demand of Populism in Europe.” Working Paper.Suche in Google Scholar
Hirshleifer, J. 2001. The Dark Side of the Force: Economic Foundations of Conflict Theory. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Suche in Google Scholar
Konrad, K. A. 2009. Strategy and Dynamics in Contests. Oxford: Oxford University Press.10.1093/oso/9780199549597.001.0001Suche in Google Scholar
Laurent-Lucchetti, J., D. Rohner, and M. Thoenig. 2020. “Ethnic Conflicts and the Informational Dividend of Democracy.” Working Paper.Suche in Google Scholar
Martin, P., T. Mayer, and M. Thoenig. 2008. “Make Trade Not War?” The Review of Economic Studies 75 (3): 865–900, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937x.2008.00492.x.Suche in Google Scholar
Polachek, S. W. 1980. “Conflict and Trade.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 24 (1): 55–78, https://doi.org/10.1177/002200278002400103.Suche in Google Scholar
Rohner, D., and A. Saia. 2020. “Education and Conflict: Evidence from a Policy Experiment in Indonesia.” Working Paper.Suche in Google Scholar
Rohner, D., M. Thoenig, and F. Zilibotti. 2013. “War Signals: A Theory of Trade, Trust, and Conflict.” Review of Economic Studies 80 (3): 1114–47, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdt003.Suche in Google Scholar
Supplementary Material
The online version of this article offers supplementary material (https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2020-0043).
© 2020 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston
Artikel in diesem Heft
- Editorial
- Introduction to the special issue ‘Reflections on the post COVID-19 World’
- Research Articles
- Bioeconomic Peace Research and Policy
- COVID-19 and Collective Action
- Capitalism and COVID-19: Crisis at the Crossroads
- COVID-19, Security Threats and Public Opinions
- Pandemic Police States
- Guidelines for Revitalizing International Organizations for the Post-Covid-19 Era
- Peacekeeping after Covid-19
- COVID-19 as a Potential Accelerator. A Euro-Centric Perspective
- The Decline of US Power and the Future of Conflict Management after Covid
- Will COVID-19 Cause a War? Understanding the Case of the U.S. and China
- Rethinking U.S. National Security after Covid19
- COVID-19 and Conflict: Major Risks and Policy Responses
- A Pandemic of Violence? The Impact of COVID-19 on Conflict
- COVID-19 and the Potential Consequences for Social Stability
- The other virus: Covid-19 and violence against civilians
- COVID-19 in Africa: Turning a Health Crisis into a Human Security Threat?
- Economics and the Covid Pandemic in the UK
- Conflict in the Time of (Post-) Corona: Some Assessments from Behavioral Economics
- The Data Science of COVID-19 Spread: Some Troubling Current and Future Trends
Artikel in diesem Heft
- Editorial
- Introduction to the special issue ‘Reflections on the post COVID-19 World’
- Research Articles
- Bioeconomic Peace Research and Policy
- COVID-19 and Collective Action
- Capitalism and COVID-19: Crisis at the Crossroads
- COVID-19, Security Threats and Public Opinions
- Pandemic Police States
- Guidelines for Revitalizing International Organizations for the Post-Covid-19 Era
- Peacekeeping after Covid-19
- COVID-19 as a Potential Accelerator. A Euro-Centric Perspective
- The Decline of US Power and the Future of Conflict Management after Covid
- Will COVID-19 Cause a War? Understanding the Case of the U.S. and China
- Rethinking U.S. National Security after Covid19
- COVID-19 and Conflict: Major Risks and Policy Responses
- A Pandemic of Violence? The Impact of COVID-19 on Conflict
- COVID-19 and the Potential Consequences for Social Stability
- The other virus: Covid-19 and violence against civilians
- COVID-19 in Africa: Turning a Health Crisis into a Human Security Threat?
- Economics and the Covid Pandemic in the UK
- Conflict in the Time of (Post-) Corona: Some Assessments from Behavioral Economics
- The Data Science of COVID-19 Spread: Some Troubling Current and Future Trends