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Prediction of LOCA break sizes using LSTM architecture for pressurized water reactors

  • Youssef Badr , May Abdellatief , Ahmed Nazef ORCID logo , Ibrahim Mohsen , Alaa El-Gendy , Mohamed Y. M. Mohsen , Wassim I. Shalaby , Tarek F. Nagla and Mohamed A. E. Abdel-Rahman ORCID logo EMAIL logo
Published/Copyright: October 14, 2025
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Abstract

Neural networks (NNs) and deep learning have revolutionized several fields, and nuclear safety analysis is no exception. The proper operation of nuclear reactor safety systems is crucial and is designed to meet strict safety requirements. Such systems are expected to withstand certain postulated accidents known as design basis accidents (DBAs), which include the loss of coolant accident (LOCA). As the LOCA involves complex fluid mechanics and heat transfer, the pattern recognition abilities of NNs allow for excellent prediction capabilities and the bypassing of otherwise tedious conventional analysis methods. This work investigates the deep learning techniques through long short-term memory (LSTM) architecture, for its ability to deal with time-series problems which include LOCAs. The utilized model is taught to estimate the size of pipe breaks within the cooling system based off of the corresponding pressure drops. A range of 0.5 %–100 % break-size-time-variant parameters were collected using the WSC Inc. 1,400 MWe generic pressurized water reactor (GPWR) simulator, using two circulation loops. Neural networks were trained on parameters such as loop temperature, pressure, containment pressure and Boron concentration. The performance of the LSTM model showed a mean absolute error (MAE) of 5.185, mean squared error (MSE) of 76.50, root mean squared error (RMSE) of 7.953, R2 of 0.888 and Accuracy of 80.684 % within a tolerance of 15 % across 100 runs.


Corresponding author: Mohamed A. E. Abdel-Rahman, Nuclear Engineering Department, Military Technical College, Kobry El-kobbah, Cairo, Egypt; and Arab Academy of Science, Technology and Maritime Transport, College of Engineering and Technology, Smart Village, Giza, Egypt, E-mail:

  1. Research ethics: Not applicable.

  2. Informed consent: Not applicable.

  3. Author contributions: All authors have accepted responsibility for the entire content of this manuscript and approved its submission.

  4. Use of Large Language Models, AI and Machine Learning Tools: None declared.

  5. Conflict of interest: The authors state no conflict of interest.

  6. Research funding: None declared.

  7. Data availability: Not applicable.

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Received: 2025-03-15
Accepted: 2025-09-29
Published Online: 2025-10-14
Published in Print: 2025-12-17

© 2025 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

Downloaded on 11.12.2025 from https://www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi/10.1515/kern-2025-0027/pdf
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