Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis with respect to the hydrogen production determined by MELCOR 1.8.4 code during a severe accident

J. Kronenberg

doi:10.1515/kern-2001-0075

Enjoy 40% off

academic books on De Gruyter Brill *

Article

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis with respect to the hydrogen production determined by MELCOR 1.8.4 code during a severe accident

J. Kronenberg

Published/Copyright: March 14, 2022

Published by

Become an author with De Gruyter Brill

Submit Manuscript Author Information

From the journal Kerntechnik Volume 66 Issue 4

Abstract

For the selection and design of measures to scope with the hydrogen which will be produced in the course of a severe accident in LWRs a simple postulate – e. g. 75 % zircaloy oxidation of all fuel rod claddings – is not appropriate. In our opinion, realistic (best estimate) analyses with indication of the uncertainties are substantially more suitable. However, the problem thereby lies in the determination of these uncertainties. The current work presents a method, which determines the uncertainty band for the in-vessel hydrogen production calculated with the MELCOR program using a mathematical-statistic method (SUSA). For the exercise a “Total loss of the alternating current supply” for the planned European Pressurised Water Reactor (EPR) has been chosen as a representative scenario. Besides the actual uncertainties of the computational program concerned with such an analysis also the sensitive parameters can be identified.

Abstract

Für die Auswahl und Auslegung von Maßnahmen zur Beherrschung des bei schweren Störfällen in LWR produzierten Wasserstoffs ist ein einfaches Postulat – z. B 75 %ige Oxidation aller Zircaloy Brennstab-Hüllrohre – nicht zielföhrend. Realistische (best-estimate) Analysen mit Angaben der Unsicherheiten sind unseres Erachtens wesentlich geeigneter. Die Problematik dabei liegt in der Ermittlung dieser Unsicherheiten. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird eine Methode vorgestellt, die am Beispiel einer Analyse eines „Vollständigen Ausfalls der Wechselstromversorgung“ beim geplanten Europäischen Druckwasserreaktor (EPR) mit dem Programm MELCOR das Unsicherheitsband bezüglich der in-vessel Wasserstofferzeugung unter Verwendung einer mathematisch-statistischen Methode (SUSA) ermittelt. Neben den eigentlichen Unsicherheiten des betreffenden Rechenprogramms können mit einer derartigen Analyse auch die sensitiven Einflussgrößen (Parameter) ermittelt werden.

References

1 Kloos, M.; Hofer, E.: The PC version of the software system for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of results from computer models. User’s guide and tutorial, GRS mbH, Feb. 1998Search in Google Scholar

2 Glaeser, H.; Hofer, E.; Kloos, M.; Skorek, T.: Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a postexperimental calculation in thermal hydraulics. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 45 (1994) 19010.1016/0951-8320(94)90073-6Search in Google Scholar

3 Weber, G.; Hofer, E; Krzykacz, B.: Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of fog formation rates calculated with the containment code FIPLOC-M. J. Aerosol Science 23 Suppl. 1 (1992) 26910.1016/0021-8502(92)90401-GSearch in Google Scholar

4 Kolev, N. I.; Hofer, E.: Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a postexperiment simulation of nonexplosive melt-water interaction. Experimental Thermal and Fluid Science (1996) 9810.1016/0894-1777(96)00034-9Search in Google Scholar

5 Hofmann, P.; Hagen, S.; Schanz, G.; Skokan, A.: Chemical interactions of reactor core materials up to very high temperatures. KfK 4485, Jan. 1989, Karlsruhe10.13182/NT-TMI2-146Search in Google Scholar

6 Urbanic, V. F.; Heidrick, T. R.: High-temperature oxidation of zircaloy-2 and zircaloy-4 in steam. J. of Nuclear Materials 75 (1978) 25110.1016/0022-3115(78)90006-5Search in Google Scholar

Received: 2001-01-22

Published Online: 2022-03-14

You are currently not able to access this content.

Articles in the same Issue

https://doi.org/10.1515/kern-2001-0075