Home Trade Boomers: Evidence from the Commodities-for-Manufactures Boom in Brazil
Article
Licensed
Unlicensed Requires Authentication

Trade Boomers: Evidence from the Commodities-for-Manufactures Boom in Brazil

  • Ridwan Karim EMAIL logo
Published/Copyright: November 13, 2023

Abstract

China’s growing prominence as a trade superpower has placed competitive pressure on manufacturing industries in Brazil, while simultaneously bolstering demand for its commodities. I investigate the effects of this so-called manufactures-for-commodities boom on Brazilian birth outcomes from 2000 to 2010. Exploiting exogenous variation in patterns of trade growth with China across different regions within Brazil, I find that both import and export growth led to higher birth weights for babies, and lower infant mortality rates. I also find that negative import shocks reduced fertility rates across all age groups for women, suggesting that selectivity in births induced by negative income shocks, combined with concentration of household resources on the children that are born led to better infant health outcomes. Additional evidence is consistent with income effects playing a role in explaining the results, while ruling out better provision of healthcare and changes to household composition as mechanisms. I also explore changes in trade-induced pollution levels and social assistance programs as a potential mechanism. The findings indicate that increased import and export growth can improve infant health, highlighting another potential benefit from trade liberalization.

JEL Classification: O24; F61; F63

Corresponding author: Ridwan Karim, Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Lazaridis School of Business & Economics, Wilfrid Laurier University, 75 University Avenue W., Office: LH3084, Waterloo, ON N2L 3C5, Canada, E-mail:

References

Alam, Shamma Adeeb, and Claus C. Pörtner. 2018. “Income Shocks, Contraceptive Use, and Timing of Fertility.” Journal of Development Economics 131: 96–103. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2017.10.007.Search in Google Scholar

Almond, Douglas, Janet Currie, and Valentina Duque. 2018. “Childhood Circumstances and Adult Outcomes: Act II.” Journal of Economic Literature 56 (4): 1360–446. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.20171164.Search in Google Scholar

Altemus, Margaret, Nilofar Sarvaiya, and C. Neill Epperson. 2014. “Sex Differences in Anxiety and Depression Clinical Perspectives.” Frontiers in Neuroendocrinology 35 (3): 320–30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.yfrne.2014.05.004.Search in Google Scholar

Autor, David, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson. 2013. “The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States.” American Economic Review 103 (6): 2121–68.10.1257/aer.103.6.2121Search in Google Scholar

Autor, David H., David Dorn, and Gordon H. Hanson. 2016. “The China Shock: Learning from Labor-Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade.” Annual Review of Economics 8: 205–40. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-080315-015041.Search in Google Scholar

Autor, David H., D. Dorn, G. H. Hanson, and J. Song. 2014. “Trade Adjustment: Worker-Level Evidence.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 129 (4): 1799–860. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qju026.Search in Google Scholar

Autor, David, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson. 2019. “When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage Market Value of Young Men.” American Economic Review: Insights 1 (2): 161–78. https://doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20180010.Search in Google Scholar

Becker, Gary S. 1973. “A Theory of Marriage: Part I.” Journal of Political Economy 81 (4): 813–46. https://doi.org/10.1086/260084.Search in Google Scholar

Bombardini, Matilde, and Bingjing Li. 2020. “Trade, Pollution and Mortality in china.” Journal of International Economics 125: 103321, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103321.Search in Google Scholar

CEPII, BACI. 2018. Dataset. http://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/welcome.asp (accessed on October 18, 2018).Search in Google Scholar

Chege, Christine G. K., Camilla I. M. Andersson, and Matin Qaim. 2015. “Impacts of Supermarkets on Farm Household Nutrition in Kenya.” World Development 72: 394–407. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.03.016.Search in Google Scholar

Cherniwchan, Jevan. 2017. “Trade Liberalization and the Environment: Evidence from NAFTA and US Manufacturing.” Journal of International Economics 105: 130–49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.01.005.Search in Google Scholar

Cornia, Giovanni Andrea, Stefano Rosignoli, and Luca Tiberti. 2008. Globalization and Health: Impact Pathways and Recent Evidence. No. 2008/74. WIDER Research Paper.Search in Google Scholar

Costa, Francisco, Jason Garred, and Joao Paulo Pessoa. 2016. “Winners and Losers from a Commodities-For-Manufactures Trade Boom.” Journal of International Economics 102: 50–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2016.04.005.Search in Google Scholar

Coussons-Read, Mary E. 2013. “Effects of Prenatal Stress on Pregnancy and Human Development: Mechanisms and Pathways.” Obstetric Medicine 6 (2): 52–7. https://doi.org/10.1177/1753495x12473751.Search in Google Scholar

Currie, Janet, and Tom Vogl. 2013. “Early-life Health and Adult Circumstance in Developing Countries.” Annual Review of Economics 5 (1): 1–36. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-081412-103704.Search in Google Scholar

Deaton, A. 2004. “Health in an Age of Globalization, Brookings Trade Forum 2004.” Globalization, Poverty, and Inequality 2004: 83–130, https://doi.org/10.1353/btf.2005.0004.Search in Google Scholar

Dix-Carneiro, Rafael, and Brian K. Kovak. 2017. “Trade Liberalization and Regional Dynamics.” American Economic Review 107 (10): 2908–46. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20161214.Search in Google Scholar

Dix-Carneiro, Rafael, Rodrigo R. Soares, and Gabriel Ulyssea. 2018. “Economic Shocks and Crime: Evidence from the Brazilian Trade Liberalization.” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 10 (4): 158–95. https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20170080.Search in Google Scholar

Feler, Leo, and Mine Z. Senses. 2017. “Trade Shocks and the Provision of Local Public Goods.” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 9 (4): 101–43. https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20150578.Search in Google Scholar

Felisbino-Mendes, M., and B. Barrozo Siqueira. 2020. “Changes in Contraception Use Among Brazilian Women after Childbirth, 2006-2013.” European Journal of Public Health 30 (Supplement 5): ckaa166-981.10.1093/eurpub/ckaa166.981Search in Google Scholar

Fledderjohann, J., S. Vellakkal, Z. Khan, S. Ebrahim, and D. Stuckler. 2016. “Quantifying the Impact of Rising Food Prices on Child Mortality in India: A Cross-District Statistical Analysis of the District Level Household Survey.” International Journal of Epidemiology 45 (2): 554–64. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyv359.Search in Google Scholar

Fujiwara, Thomas. 2015. “Voting Technology, Political Responsiveness, and Infant Health: Evidence from Brazil.” Econometrica 83 (2): 423–64. https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta11520.Search in Google Scholar

Glover, Vivette. 2015. “Prenatal Stress and its Effects on the Fetus and the Child: Possible Underlying Biological Mechanisms.” Perinatal Programming of Neurodevelopment: 269–83. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-1372-5_13.Search in Google Scholar

Harrison, Ann, John McLaren, and Margaret S. McMillan. 2011. “Recent Perspectives on Trade and Inequality.” Annual Review of Economics 3: 261–80, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.economics.102308.124451.Search in Google Scholar

Headey, Derek D. 2014. Food Prices and Poverty Reduction in the Long Run, Vol. 1331. Washington D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).10.2139/ssrn.2414036Search in Google Scholar

Herzer, Dierk. 2017. “The Long-Run Relationship between Trade and Population Health: Evidence from Five Decades.” The World Economy 40 (2): 462–87. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12419.Search in Google Scholar

Hummels, David, R. Jørgensen, J. Munch, and C. Xiang. 2014. “The Wage Effects of Offshoring: Evidence from Danish Matched Worker-Firm Data.” American Economic Review 104 (6): 1597–629. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.6.1597.Search in Google Scholar

Hummels, David, Jakob Munch, and Xiang Chong. 2016. No Pain, No Gain: The Effects of Exports on Effort, Injury, and Illness. No. w22365. Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research.10.2139/ssrn.2810427Search in Google Scholar

Karim, Ridwan. 2023. “Voter-Buying, Politician Selection, and Public Good Provision in Brazil.” Working Paper.10.2139/ssrn.4621562Search in Google Scholar

Kivimäki, Mika, and Ichiro Kawachi. 2015. “Work Stress as a Risk Factor for Cardiovascular Disease.” Current Cardiology Reports 17: 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11886-015-0630-8.Search in Google Scholar

Kochar, Anjini. 1999. “Smoothing Consumption by Smoothing Income: Hours-Of-Work Responses to Idiosyncratic Agricultural Shocks in Rural India.” Review of Economics and Statistics 81 (1): 50–61. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465399767923818.Search in Google Scholar

Lai, Tat-kei, Yi Lu, and Travis Ng. 2022. “Import Competition and Workplace Safety in the US Manufacturing Sector.” Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 203: 24–42.10.1016/j.jebo.2022.08.033Search in Google Scholar

Lindo, Jason M., Jessamyn Schaller, and Benjamin Hansen. 2018. “Caution! Men Not at Work: Gender-specific Labor Market Conditions and Child Maltreatment.” Journal of Public Economics 163: 77–98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2018.04.007.Search in Google Scholar

Lindstrom, David P., and Betemariam Berhanu. 1999. “The Impact of War, Famine, and Economic Decline on Marital Fertility in Ethiopia.” Demography 36 (2): 247–61. https://doi.org/10.2307/2648112.Search in Google Scholar

McCaig, Brian. 2011. “Exporting Out of Poverty: Provincial Poverty in Vietnam and US Market Access.” Journal of International Economics 85 (1): 102–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2011.05.007.Search in Google Scholar

Oberlander, Lisa, Anne-Célia Disdier, and Fabrice Etilé. 2017. “Globalisation and National Trends in Nutrition and Health: A Grouped Fixed-Effects Approach to Intercountry Heterogeneity.” Health Economics 26 (9): 1146–61. https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.3521.Search in Google Scholar

Olper, Alessandro, Daniele Curzi, and Johan Swinnen. 2018. “Trade Liberalization and Child Mortality: A Synthetic Control Method.” World Development 110: 394–410. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.05.034.Search in Google Scholar

O’reilly, Dermot, and Michael Rosato. 2013. “Worked to Death? A Census-Based Longitudinal Study of the Relationship between the Numbers of Hours Spent Working and Mortality Risk.” International Journal of Epidemiology 42 (6): 1820–30. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyt211.Search in Google Scholar

Owen, Ann L., and Stephen Wu. 2007. “Is Trade Good for Your Health?” Review of International Economics 15 (4): 660–82. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2007.00677.x.Search in Google Scholar

Page, Marianne, Jessamyn Schaller, and David Simon. 2019. “The Effects of Aggregate and Gender-Specific Labor Demand Shocks on Child Health.” Journal of Human Resources 54 (1): 37–78. https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.54.1.0716.8045r.Search in Google Scholar

Pierce, Justin R., and Peter K. Schott. 2020. “Trade Liberalization and Mortality: Evidence from US Counties.” American Economic Review: Insights 2 (1): 47–64. https://doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20180396.Search in Google Scholar

Pitt, Mark M., and Wendy Sigle. 1998. Seasonality, Weather Shocks and the Timing of Births and Child Mortality in Senegal. Providence: Brown University, Population Studies and Training Center.Search in Google Scholar

Pörtner, Claus C. 2008. “Gone with the Wind? Hurricane Risk, Fertility and Education.” In: Working Paper. Seattle: University of Washington.10.2139/ssrn.936034Search in Google Scholar

Pörtner, Claus C. 2010. “Natural Hazards and Child Health.” Available at SSRN 1599432.10.2139/ssrn.1599432Search in Google Scholar

Pörtner, Claus. 2016. “Effects of Parental Absence on Child labor and School Attendance in the Philippines.” Review of Economics of the Household 14 (1): 103–30.10.1007/s11150-014-9266-5Search in Google Scholar

Shenhav, Na’ama. 2018. “Lowering Standards to Wed? Spouse Quality, Marriage, and Labor Market Responses to the Gender Wage Gap.” Review of Economics and Statistics 103 (2): 1–45.10.1162/rest_a_00919Search in Google Scholar

Tanaka, Shinsuke, Kensuke Teshima, and Eric Verhoogen. 2022. “North-South Displacement Effects of Environmental Regulation: The Case of Battery Recycling.” American Economic Review: Insights 4 (3): 271–88. https://doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20210201.Search in Google Scholar

van Soest, Arthur, and Unnati Rani Saha. 2018. “Relationships between Infant Mortality, Birth Spacing and Fertility in Matlab, Bangladesh.” PLoS One 13 (4): e0195940. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0195940.Search in Google Scholar

Verhoogen, Eric A. 2008. “Trade, Quality Upgrading, and Wage Inequality in the Mexican Manufacturing Sector.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 123 (2): 489–530. https://doi.org/10.1162/qjec.2008.123.2.489.Search in Google Scholar


Supplementary Material

This article contains supplementary material (https://doi.org/10.1515/jgd-2023-0013).


Received: 2023-02-02
Accepted: 2023-09-20
Published Online: 2023-11-13

© 2023 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

Downloaded on 24.9.2025 from https://www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi/10.1515/jgd-2023-0013/html?lang=en
Scroll to top button