Abstract
China’s growing prominence as a trade superpower has placed competitive pressure on manufacturing industries in Brazil, while simultaneously bolstering demand for its commodities. I investigate the effects of this so-called manufactures-for-commodities boom on Brazilian birth outcomes from 2000 to 2010. Exploiting exogenous variation in patterns of trade growth with China across different regions within Brazil, I find that both import and export growth led to higher birth weights for babies, and lower infant mortality rates. I also find that negative import shocks reduced fertility rates across all age groups for women, suggesting that selectivity in births induced by negative income shocks, combined with concentration of household resources on the children that are born led to better infant health outcomes. Additional evidence is consistent with income effects playing a role in explaining the results, while ruling out better provision of healthcare and changes to household composition as mechanisms. I also explore changes in trade-induced pollution levels and social assistance programs as a potential mechanism. The findings indicate that increased import and export growth can improve infant health, highlighting another potential benefit from trade liberalization.
References
Alam, Shamma Adeeb, and Claus C. Pörtner. 2018. “Income Shocks, Contraceptive Use, and Timing of Fertility.” Journal of Development Economics 131: 96–103. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2017.10.007.Search in Google Scholar
Almond, Douglas, Janet Currie, and Valentina Duque. 2018. “Childhood Circumstances and Adult Outcomes: Act II.” Journal of Economic Literature 56 (4): 1360–446. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.20171164.Search in Google Scholar
Altemus, Margaret, Nilofar Sarvaiya, and C. Neill Epperson. 2014. “Sex Differences in Anxiety and Depression Clinical Perspectives.” Frontiers in Neuroendocrinology 35 (3): 320–30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.yfrne.2014.05.004.Search in Google Scholar
Autor, David, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson. 2013. “The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States.” American Economic Review 103 (6): 2121–68.10.1257/aer.103.6.2121Search in Google Scholar
Autor, David H., David Dorn, and Gordon H. Hanson. 2016. “The China Shock: Learning from Labor-Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade.” Annual Review of Economics 8: 205–40. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-080315-015041.Search in Google Scholar
Autor, David H., D. Dorn, G. H. Hanson, and J. Song. 2014. “Trade Adjustment: Worker-Level Evidence.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 129 (4): 1799–860. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qju026.Search in Google Scholar
Autor, David, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson. 2019. “When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage Market Value of Young Men.” American Economic Review: Insights 1 (2): 161–78. https://doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20180010.Search in Google Scholar
Becker, Gary S. 1973. “A Theory of Marriage: Part I.” Journal of Political Economy 81 (4): 813–46. https://doi.org/10.1086/260084.Search in Google Scholar
Bombardini, Matilde, and Bingjing Li. 2020. “Trade, Pollution and Mortality in china.” Journal of International Economics 125: 103321, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103321.Search in Google Scholar
CEPII, BACI. 2018. Dataset. http://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/welcome.asp (accessed on October 18, 2018).Search in Google Scholar
Chege, Christine G. K., Camilla I. M. Andersson, and Matin Qaim. 2015. “Impacts of Supermarkets on Farm Household Nutrition in Kenya.” World Development 72: 394–407. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.03.016.Search in Google Scholar
Cherniwchan, Jevan. 2017. “Trade Liberalization and the Environment: Evidence from NAFTA and US Manufacturing.” Journal of International Economics 105: 130–49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.01.005.Search in Google Scholar
Cornia, Giovanni Andrea, Stefano Rosignoli, and Luca Tiberti. 2008. Globalization and Health: Impact Pathways and Recent Evidence. No. 2008/74. WIDER Research Paper.Search in Google Scholar
Costa, Francisco, Jason Garred, and Joao Paulo Pessoa. 2016. “Winners and Losers from a Commodities-For-Manufactures Trade Boom.” Journal of International Economics 102: 50–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2016.04.005.Search in Google Scholar
Coussons-Read, Mary E. 2013. “Effects of Prenatal Stress on Pregnancy and Human Development: Mechanisms and Pathways.” Obstetric Medicine 6 (2): 52–7. https://doi.org/10.1177/1753495x12473751.Search in Google Scholar
Currie, Janet, and Tom Vogl. 2013. “Early-life Health and Adult Circumstance in Developing Countries.” Annual Review of Economics 5 (1): 1–36. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-081412-103704.Search in Google Scholar
Deaton, A. 2004. “Health in an Age of Globalization, Brookings Trade Forum 2004.” Globalization, Poverty, and Inequality 2004: 83–130, https://doi.org/10.1353/btf.2005.0004.Search in Google Scholar
Dix-Carneiro, Rafael, and Brian K. Kovak. 2017. “Trade Liberalization and Regional Dynamics.” American Economic Review 107 (10): 2908–46. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20161214.Search in Google Scholar
Dix-Carneiro, Rafael, Rodrigo R. Soares, and Gabriel Ulyssea. 2018. “Economic Shocks and Crime: Evidence from the Brazilian Trade Liberalization.” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 10 (4): 158–95. https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20170080.Search in Google Scholar
Feler, Leo, and Mine Z. Senses. 2017. “Trade Shocks and the Provision of Local Public Goods.” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 9 (4): 101–43. https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20150578.Search in Google Scholar
Felisbino-Mendes, M., and B. Barrozo Siqueira. 2020. “Changes in Contraception Use Among Brazilian Women after Childbirth, 2006-2013.” European Journal of Public Health 30 (Supplement 5): ckaa166-981.10.1093/eurpub/ckaa166.981Search in Google Scholar
Fledderjohann, J., S. Vellakkal, Z. Khan, S. Ebrahim, and D. Stuckler. 2016. “Quantifying the Impact of Rising Food Prices on Child Mortality in India: A Cross-District Statistical Analysis of the District Level Household Survey.” International Journal of Epidemiology 45 (2): 554–64. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyv359.Search in Google Scholar
Fujiwara, Thomas. 2015. “Voting Technology, Political Responsiveness, and Infant Health: Evidence from Brazil.” Econometrica 83 (2): 423–64. https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta11520.Search in Google Scholar
Glover, Vivette. 2015. “Prenatal Stress and its Effects on the Fetus and the Child: Possible Underlying Biological Mechanisms.” Perinatal Programming of Neurodevelopment: 269–83. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-1372-5_13.Search in Google Scholar
Harrison, Ann, John McLaren, and Margaret S. McMillan. 2011. “Recent Perspectives on Trade and Inequality.” Annual Review of Economics 3: 261–80, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.economics.102308.124451.Search in Google Scholar
Headey, Derek D. 2014. Food Prices and Poverty Reduction in the Long Run, Vol. 1331. Washington D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).10.2139/ssrn.2414036Search in Google Scholar
Herzer, Dierk. 2017. “The Long-Run Relationship between Trade and Population Health: Evidence from Five Decades.” The World Economy 40 (2): 462–87. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12419.Search in Google Scholar
Hummels, David, R. Jørgensen, J. Munch, and C. Xiang. 2014. “The Wage Effects of Offshoring: Evidence from Danish Matched Worker-Firm Data.” American Economic Review 104 (6): 1597–629. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.6.1597.Search in Google Scholar
Hummels, David, Jakob Munch, and Xiang Chong. 2016. No Pain, No Gain: The Effects of Exports on Effort, Injury, and Illness. No. w22365. Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research.10.2139/ssrn.2810427Search in Google Scholar
Karim, Ridwan. 2023. “Voter-Buying, Politician Selection, and Public Good Provision in Brazil.” Working Paper.10.2139/ssrn.4621562Search in Google Scholar
Kivimäki, Mika, and Ichiro Kawachi. 2015. “Work Stress as a Risk Factor for Cardiovascular Disease.” Current Cardiology Reports 17: 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11886-015-0630-8.Search in Google Scholar
Kochar, Anjini. 1999. “Smoothing Consumption by Smoothing Income: Hours-Of-Work Responses to Idiosyncratic Agricultural Shocks in Rural India.” Review of Economics and Statistics 81 (1): 50–61. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465399767923818.Search in Google Scholar
Lai, Tat-kei, Yi Lu, and Travis Ng. 2022. “Import Competition and Workplace Safety in the US Manufacturing Sector.” Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 203: 24–42.10.1016/j.jebo.2022.08.033Search in Google Scholar
Lindo, Jason M., Jessamyn Schaller, and Benjamin Hansen. 2018. “Caution! Men Not at Work: Gender-specific Labor Market Conditions and Child Maltreatment.” Journal of Public Economics 163: 77–98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2018.04.007.Search in Google Scholar
Lindstrom, David P., and Betemariam Berhanu. 1999. “The Impact of War, Famine, and Economic Decline on Marital Fertility in Ethiopia.” Demography 36 (2): 247–61. https://doi.org/10.2307/2648112.Search in Google Scholar
McCaig, Brian. 2011. “Exporting Out of Poverty: Provincial Poverty in Vietnam and US Market Access.” Journal of International Economics 85 (1): 102–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2011.05.007.Search in Google Scholar
Oberlander, Lisa, Anne-Célia Disdier, and Fabrice Etilé. 2017. “Globalisation and National Trends in Nutrition and Health: A Grouped Fixed-Effects Approach to Intercountry Heterogeneity.” Health Economics 26 (9): 1146–61. https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.3521.Search in Google Scholar
Olper, Alessandro, Daniele Curzi, and Johan Swinnen. 2018. “Trade Liberalization and Child Mortality: A Synthetic Control Method.” World Development 110: 394–410. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.05.034.Search in Google Scholar
O’reilly, Dermot, and Michael Rosato. 2013. “Worked to Death? A Census-Based Longitudinal Study of the Relationship between the Numbers of Hours Spent Working and Mortality Risk.” International Journal of Epidemiology 42 (6): 1820–30. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyt211.Search in Google Scholar
Owen, Ann L., and Stephen Wu. 2007. “Is Trade Good for Your Health?” Review of International Economics 15 (4): 660–82. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2007.00677.x.Search in Google Scholar
Page, Marianne, Jessamyn Schaller, and David Simon. 2019. “The Effects of Aggregate and Gender-Specific Labor Demand Shocks on Child Health.” Journal of Human Resources 54 (1): 37–78. https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.54.1.0716.8045r.Search in Google Scholar
Pierce, Justin R., and Peter K. Schott. 2020. “Trade Liberalization and Mortality: Evidence from US Counties.” American Economic Review: Insights 2 (1): 47–64. https://doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20180396.Search in Google Scholar
Pitt, Mark M., and Wendy Sigle. 1998. Seasonality, Weather Shocks and the Timing of Births and Child Mortality in Senegal. Providence: Brown University, Population Studies and Training Center.Search in Google Scholar
Pörtner, Claus C. 2008. “Gone with the Wind? Hurricane Risk, Fertility and Education.” In: Working Paper. Seattle: University of Washington.10.2139/ssrn.936034Search in Google Scholar
Pörtner, Claus C. 2010. “Natural Hazards and Child Health.” Available at SSRN 1599432.10.2139/ssrn.1599432Search in Google Scholar
Pörtner, Claus. 2016. “Effects of Parental Absence on Child labor and School Attendance in the Philippines.” Review of Economics of the Household 14 (1): 103–30.10.1007/s11150-014-9266-5Search in Google Scholar
Shenhav, Na’ama. 2018. “Lowering Standards to Wed? Spouse Quality, Marriage, and Labor Market Responses to the Gender Wage Gap.” Review of Economics and Statistics 103 (2): 1–45.10.1162/rest_a_00919Search in Google Scholar
Tanaka, Shinsuke, Kensuke Teshima, and Eric Verhoogen. 2022. “North-South Displacement Effects of Environmental Regulation: The Case of Battery Recycling.” American Economic Review: Insights 4 (3): 271–88. https://doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20210201.Search in Google Scholar
van Soest, Arthur, and Unnati Rani Saha. 2018. “Relationships between Infant Mortality, Birth Spacing and Fertility in Matlab, Bangladesh.” PLoS One 13 (4): e0195940. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0195940.Search in Google Scholar
Verhoogen, Eric A. 2008. “Trade, Quality Upgrading, and Wage Inequality in the Mexican Manufacturing Sector.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 123 (2): 489–530. https://doi.org/10.1162/qjec.2008.123.2.489.Search in Google Scholar
Supplementary Material
This article contains supplementary material (https://doi.org/10.1515/jgd-2023-0013).
© 2023 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston
Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- Editorial
- The Gendered Effects of Globalization: Recent Evidence from Developing Countries
- Research Foundation
- Protectionism and Gender Inequality in Developing Countries
- Capital Account Liberalization, Structural Change, and Female Employment
- Symposia Articles
- What Predicts the Growth of Small Firms? Evidence from Tanzanian Commercial Loan Data
- Trade Liberalization and Gender Inequality in India: A Task Content of Occupations Approach
- Can Online Platforms Promote Women-Led Exporting Firms?
- When Women’s Work Disappears: Marriage and Fertility Decisions in Peru
- Trade Boomers: Evidence from the Commodities-for-Manufactures Boom in Brazil
Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- Editorial
- The Gendered Effects of Globalization: Recent Evidence from Developing Countries
- Research Foundation
- Protectionism and Gender Inequality in Developing Countries
- Capital Account Liberalization, Structural Change, and Female Employment
- Symposia Articles
- What Predicts the Growth of Small Firms? Evidence from Tanzanian Commercial Loan Data
- Trade Liberalization and Gender Inequality in India: A Task Content of Occupations Approach
- Can Online Platforms Promote Women-Led Exporting Firms?
- When Women’s Work Disappears: Marriage and Fertility Decisions in Peru
- Trade Boomers: Evidence from the Commodities-for-Manufactures Boom in Brazil