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Regional Market Income Inequality and its Impact on Crime in Germany: A Spatial Panel Data Approach with Local Spillovers

  • Philipp Süß EMAIL logo
Published/Copyright: June 13, 2019

Abstract

Economic theory predicts a positive effect of an increase in income inequality on the prevalence of crime, but the international empirical evidence is mixed. For Germany, research on this topic is virtually non-existent. Therefore, I used fixed effect regressions to estimate the effect of a market income inequality proxy on property damages, thefts from motor vehicles, domestic burglaries and assaults in Germany. The models without spatial lags suggest economically small to moderate own-district elasticities between 0.13 and 0.95. The models with spatial lags generally show insignificant own-district estimates, but significant spatial spillovers.

JEL Classification: J39; K14; R12

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Appendix

Table 8:

Base specification: Two-way fixed effects.

AssaultBurglaryProp. DamageTheft fr. MV
Gini coefficient2.89**2.05***3.87**–2.96*
(1.43)(0.54)(1.90)(1.76)
Time lag Gini9.01*–0.88–1.953.82**
(4.86)(0.66)(1.76)(1.74)
Population share men 15–2528.2510.02*30.51*–41.21**
(21.32)(5.72)(18.22)(16.57)
Population share foreign men 15–25–218.31*–57.16–79.12463.11***
(114.11)(40.86)(108.13)(131.87)
Gender gap0.98–1.890.8811.76*
(6.50)(1.61)(5.71)(6.49)
Graduates without degree4.640.296.13*–6.29*
(3.19)(0.89)(3.69)(3.60)
Unemployment rate6.32–1.864.595.83
(5.77)(2.00)(6.23)(7.80)
GDP per capita in 1000 EUR0.660.042.993.50
(2.10)(0.62)(2.31)(4.28)
Residential mobility–1.91**1.72***–2.42**2.37*
(0.88)(0.65)(1.01)(1.41)
Net inflow of residents18.20–3.8610.80–41.31**
(15.51)(5.34)(15.86)(20.52)
Common time effect 2004–21.992.10–17.47210.61***
(27.00)(5.68)(21.42)(22.80)
Common time effect 2007–8.95***82.18***110.39***
(2.87)(9.99)(10.65)
Fixed EffectsYesYesYesYes
Clustered Standard ErrorsYesYesYesYes
Observations6881,0381,0841,084
R20.970.940.950.91
  1. Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01

Received: 2018-07-31
Revised: 2019-02-09
Accepted: 2019-04-30
Published Online: 2019-06-13
Published in Print: 2020-03-26

© 2020 Oldenbourg Wissenschaftsverlag GmbH, Published by De Gruyter Oldenbourg, Berlin/Boston

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