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Gravity Meets Pricing to Market: What a Combined-Method Approach Tells Us on German Beer Exports and Pricing

  • Heiko Dreyer , Svetlana Fedoseeva EMAIL logo and Roland Herrmann
Published/Copyright: August 5, 2017

Abstract

Gravity and pricing to market (PTM) models have been used to elaborate determinants of bilateral trade and export pricing for different countries and branches. Typically, only one of the two methods was chosen. We show in a stepwise approach how a combination of both methods can reveal novel results on the determinants of exports and export pricing behaviour. For the case of German beer exports, we show that structural differences exist between markets on which exporters apply either PTM or non-PTM strategies. German beer exporters apply PTM strategies, in particular local-currency stabilization, on those markets where imports are very sensitive to exchange-rate changes. Non-PTM strategies, i. e. full exchange-rate transmission, occur on export markets with insensitive reactions. Apart from PTM strategies, German beer exports are strongly dependent on policy variables such as the introduction of the Euro and the partner country’s membership in the EU.

JEL Classification: F10; F14; L66

Article Note

Work on this paper is based on the project “What Explains Agricultural Trade of the EU and Germany? Theoretical and Econometric Analyses on Liberalization, Macro Effects and Hysteresis” (HE 1419/12-1) financed by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft.


Annex 1:

Descriptive statistics for the gravity variables.

meanMedianminmaxstd. dev.missing obs.
GDPd1.69E+118.59E+097.51E+061.14E+137.58E+11308
GDPG2.07E+122.10E+121.46E+122.48E+122.75E+110
DistGdkm6274618716618,588399620
Opend0.63050.54860.00523.68220.40661171
Remd8023.27899.00.313,950.02286.5163
TR%29.120.00.01200.084.82896
ERGdLCU/Euro2.69E+0611.2086.44E-089.85E+091.63E+08336
Export Value4.81E+061.74E+055082.44E+082.00E+071174
Export quantitykg7.57E+062.29E+051004.07E+083.02E+071174
Annex 2:

Gravity results for an annual panel of German beer exports, 1991–2010. Zero trade flows included.

PPML (incl. zeros)Panel least squares (+1)
12345678
c33.9***21.9***2.522.4226.032.5*–14.6**–17.4**
(6.41)(5.81)(4.46)(4.05)(17.74)(17.91)(7.18)(7.09)
lnGDPd0.92***0.97***0.68***0.74***1.39***1.43***1.02***1.15***
(0.02)(0.02)(0.15)(0.13)(0.03)(0.03)(0.28)(0.27)
lnGDPG–1.10***–0.65**–1.11*–1.38**
(0.24)(0.21)(0.62)(0.62)
lnDistGd–0.39***–0.45***–1.69***–1.65***
(0.05)(0.05)(0.11)(0.11)
lnOpend0.010.050.170.38*0.230.37**–0.26–0.06
(0.08)(0.07)(0.20)(0.21)(0.17)(0.16)(0.29)(0.28)
lnRemd–1.06***–1.26***–0.35–0.27–0.42–0.430.630.65
(0.21)(0.22)(0.27)(0.23)(0.39)(0.39)(0.40)(0.40)
ln(TR+1)–0.22***–0.22***–0.08**–0.08**0.49***0.49***0.14**0.14**
(0.03)(0.03)(0.03)(0.03)(0.05)(0.05)(0.05)(0.05)
EUGd0.35**0.14*0.090.070.85***0.87***0.130.11
(0.11)(0.08)(0.08)(0.08)(0.18)(0.18)(0.17)(0.17)
EuroGd0.70***0.35***0.54***0.51***0.42**0.40***0.48**0.39**
(0.10)(0.09)(0.09)(0.09)(0.20)(0.21)(0.35)(0.22)
Contiguityd–0.91***–0.73***–1.87***–1.85***
(0.10)(0.09)(0.19)(0.19)
Religiond1.01***1.21***–0.09
(0.14)(0.15)(0.18)
lnERGd0.10***–0.39***–0.060.020.03
(0.01)(0.10)(0.18)(0.03)(0.12)
Country F.E.NNYYNNYY
Time F.E.NNYYNNYY
N26882641270826612688264127082661
R2 adj.0.970.980.990.990.560.560.800.80
  1. Notes: All variables are explained in the text or in Table 1. Robust standard errors are reported in parentheses. *, **, *** denotes significance at 10, 5 and 1 % error term level.

Annex 3:

PTM results without marginal cost proxy included.

AUCACHDKJPSEUKUS
C1.53‒0.390.36‒0.04‒0.65‒0.81‒0.50‒0.43*
1.080.460.420.041.290.450.850.23
lnPd,t1‒0.76***‒0.43***‒0.85***0.00‒1.01***‒0.26***‒0.41***‒0.16***
0.080.090.080.000.080.060.090.05
lnEd,t10.15‒0.30***‒0.23**0.010.030.32**‒0.17*‒0.14***
0.100.070.100.010.080.150.090.05
lnGDPd,t10.29**‒0.31***‒0.35***0.00‒0.19‒0.25***‒0.20‒0.18***
0.140.100.100.010.270.090.190.07
lnGDPG,t1‒0.66*0.36**0.180.010.33***0.39**0.270.27***
0.360.180.130.010.070.170.360.11
ΔlnEd,t‒0.09‒0.05‒0.54*0.97***‒0.120.38‒0.200.00
0.270.180.270.040.340.550.350.09
ΔlnGDPd,t0.410.33‒0.530.012.630.05‒2.08‒0.62
1.190.620.960.021.650.281.520.47
ΔlnGDPG,t0.03‒0.69‒0.190.00‒1.33‒0.612.95**1.10***
1.930.860.660.032.001.211.280.41
ΔlnEd,t10.370.480.41‒0.34***
0.250.440.330.11
ΔlnGDPd,t1‒0.01‒0.50*2.690.34
0.010.251.800.35
ΔlnGDPG,t1‒0.03‒1.13‒2.44‒0.35
0.031.471.580.38
ΔlnPd,t1‒0.38***‒0.07‒0.41***‒0.46***‒0.29***
0.080.040.060.100.07
ΔlnEd,t20.27
0.41
ΔlnGDPd,t22.03
1.58
ΔlnGDPG,t2‒1.06
1.38
ΔlnPd,t2‒0.26***‒0.31***
0.060.08
R2 adj.0.370.410.410.850.490.340.460.26
LR(12)0.240.480.190.240.190.490.000.07
Reset0.110.200.420.820.320.000.220.82
CusumYYYNYYYY
Bounds25.47***6.33***32.37***0.5143.04***4.56**5.19***2.47
Banerjee‒10.05***‒4.65***‒11.21***‒0.99‒12.76***‒4.21**‒4.37**‒3.00
LR0.20‒0.70***‒0.27**11.190.031.23**‒0.40*‒0.90***
  1. Notes: Robust standard errors are reported in parentheses. *, **, *** denote significance at 10, 5 and 1 % error term level. LM=Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation test, p-value. RESET=Ramsey RESET test, p-value. J.-B.=Jarque-Bera test, p-value; CUSUM=stability test, Y marks stable results and N marks results leaving 5 % band. Bounds=F-stat. referring to Bounds testing approach, critical values are tabulated in Pesaran et al. (2001), Table CI (iii), k=5, asympt. 10%: 3.52, 5 %: 4.01, 1 %: 5.06. Banerjee: Critical values are tabulated in Banerjee et al (1998), Table 1 (A), k=5, T=100, 10%: ‒3.67, 5 %: ‒4.03, 1 %: ‒4.74. LR: long-run elasticity of exchange rate (eq. 9). AU: Australia, CA: Canada; CH: Switzerland; DK: Denmark; JP: Japan; SE: Sweden; UK: United Kingdom; US: United States.

Annex 4:

Gravity results from a monthly panel for German beer exports to 8 non-Euro countries, 1991–2011.

PPMLPanel least squares
Value (TGj,t)Quantity (qGj,t)ln Value (ln TGj,t)ln Quantity (ln qGj,t)
c19.40***18.49***‒34.2***‒34.92***
1.241.34.985.41
lnGDPd0.91***0.99***3.70***3.44***
0.060.060.340.37
lnGDPG‒0.55***‒0.92***
0.130.13
lnDistGd‒0.30***‒0.36***
0.050.05
lnOpend0.110.48***0.32*0.15
0.130.120.150.17
lnRemd‒0.79***‒0.63***0.38*0.28
0.150.140.20.21
ln(TRGj+1)0.040.07*‒0.19***‒0.21***
0.030.030.030.03
EUGd0.27*0.38**‒0.41***‒0.09
0.120.120.100.12
Contiguitd0.50***0.56***
0.150.16
lnERGd‒0.45***‒0.39***‒1.19***‒0.86***
0.010.020.170.19
Country F.E.NNYY
Time F.E.NNYY
Std. ErrorsPML (Huber/White) standard errors & covarianceWhite cross-section standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected)
N1884188418841884
R2 adj.0.800.780.870.86
  1. Notes: All variables are explained in the text. Robust standard errors are reported in parentheses. *, **, *** denotes significance at 10, 5 and 1 % error term level.

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Code and Datasets

The author(s) published code and data associated with this article in the ZBW Journal Data Archive, a storage platform for datasets. See: https://doi.org/10.15456/jbnst.2017177.083355.


Received: 2016-07-25
Revised: 2017-02-16
Accepted: 2017-06-18
Published Online: 2017-08-05
Published in Print: 2017-10-26

© 2017 Oldenbourg Wissenschaftsverlag GmbH, Published by De Gruyter Oldenbourg, Berlin/Boston

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