Augmented future: tracing the trajectory of location-based augmented reality gaming for the next ten years

2.1 Trends in geographical information systems and map services

Geographic information systems (GIS) and map services such Google Maps (launched in 2005) and OpenStreetMaps (launched in 2004) have already provided navigation services and geographical information for roughly two decades. These map services make use of satellite navigation (such as the Global Positioning System (GPS) or Globaluaya Navigatsionnaya Sputnikovaya Sistema (GLONASS) ¹¹ ) to position the user in a real-world map. These systems are widely used by laypeople for activities such as travel and tourism. All these services also increasingly contain information about the places and spaces that they describe. For example, Google Maps contains descriptive information (e.g. coordinates, contact details and opening hours) as well as perceived information (e.g. customer reviews) concerning real-world points of interest such as cafés, restaurants, tourist attractions, places of worship and libraries. ^{19 , 20} In other words, these map services now make use of user-generated content to bring meaning, information and understanding of places and spaces. ²¹ Therefore, we summarise the following trend.

1. (GIS) Trend #1: Spatial data providers and map data services are increasingly augmented with user-generated content including objective descriptive data as well as subjective individual perceptions of environments and services.

   Further, spatial data acquisition and visualisation have seen a steady increase in fidelity. In Figure 1, we display four views of the same location in Google Maps, each a separate layer in the system affording different interactions and allowing the user to tailor their experiences to their needs. Over the past two decades, (online) mapping services have transitioned from using raster image tiles, to vector tiles, with the latest development introducing high-fidelity photorealistic 3D map tiles^[1] (top right in Figure 1). This trend towards higher fidelity 3D spatial information has been accelerated by the advances in image-stitching techniques ²² in combination with the emergence of affordable unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) featuring high-quality cameras, allowing for large geographic extents to be mapped in three dimensions at relatively low costs. ²³ However, we should also note that high-fidelity photorealistic spatial data is not available globally and areas of low spatial data quality still exist in large quantities, ^{24 – 26} which is in line with findings showing underrepresented digital content in certain geographic areas in LBGs. ^{27 – 30} Nonetheless, we can see a clear trend towards higher fidelity map data and we accordingly summarise the following trend.

2. (GIS) Trend #2: Spatial data providers and map data services are offering spatial information with increasing fidelity resulting in real-world places being depicted on maps with increasing precision, levels of detail and real-world information.

   Together with user-generated content such as customer reviews being embedded in map services, ²¹ and the map data becoming available in higher fidelity, information about a specific geospatial entity is being recorded with increasing levels of detail. Instead of defining a spatially situated entity as a building, a park or a road, information with varying levels of granularity is being recorded and attached to these entities. This allows us to identify, for example, the type of building (e.g. castle, school, hospital), the recreational facilities available in a park (e.g. playground, outdoor gym, running track) and specific mobility-related information (e.g. material, width, curb height) of roads, effectively moving from broader categories of spatial entities to highly-detailed machine readable information. This trend has been supported by emergent modern machine vision techniques as well as user-generated content leading to the identification of map content with higher accuracy. ³¹ Increasingly detailed and available meta-data on real-world entities has far-reaching implications in various domains such as urban planning, ^{32 , 33} ecosystem services research ^{34 , 35} as well as in the generation and accurate positioning of fictional game content in location-based games. ¹ Thus, we propose a third trend in the area of GIS.

3. (GIS) Trend #3: Information about real-world spatially situated entities is being recorded and made available with increasing levels of granularity in machine-readable formats, in particular in terms of the categories an entity belongs to.

   A unique requirement for globally available and enjoyable LBGs is the global availability of game-relevant content, and spatial information that serves as the seed for generating the digital game content. Such spatial data commonly comes from map data providers as mentioned above, or from LBG-specific databases such as Niantic Wayfarer. ³⁶ Another approach is to integrate Spatial Data Infrastructures (SDIs) provided by the public sector. An SDI can be defined as “an enabling platform for data sharing [including] people, data, access networks, institutional policy, technical standards, and human-resources dimensions […], supporting ready access to spatial information” [ ³⁷ , p. 727]. The popularity of SDIs and their potential to support various institutions and initiatives has grown over recent years, especially with the rise of concepts such as building information modelling ³⁸ and digital twins. ³³ Many countries (e.g. Switzerland, ³⁹ Germany, ⁴⁰ and Finland ⁴¹ ) support a national SDI, however, LBGs require SDIs with global coverage which remain rare. A transnational SDI covering a larger geographic regain is the INSPIRE geoportal, ⁴² which is an endeavour of the European Union based on the directive 2007/2/EC of the European Parliament ⁴³ requiring member states of the EU to provide framework-specific data. Initiatives such as the Global Fundamental Geospatial Data Themes defined by the United Nations Committee of Experts on Global Geospatial Information Management, ⁴⁴ advocate for the importance of spatial information and attempt to formalise categories of fundamental geospatial data. Further, the voluntary organisation Open Geospatial Consortium ⁴⁵ defines standards and software frameworks that support the interoperability of data sources. Although such initiatives do not directly provide data, they highlight the importance of ever-detailed spatial data as well as a trend towards increasingly accessible and available open data. Finally, we propose a fourth and last trend in the domain of GIS.

4. (GIS) Trend #4: Growing data repositories with available and accessible open data curated by institutions and the public sector allow for the generation of increasingly diverse LBG content

Figure 1:

Four screenshots taken by the authors from Google Maps. The photos showcase the Neuschwanstein Castle from a top-down satellite view (top left), an angled composite view (top right), a traditional abstract map view (bottom left) and Google street view (bottom right).

2.2 Trends in LBG technical infrastructure and hardware

In addition to GIS and map data, LBGs rely on sensors and computing to augment real-world places with fictional content. More precisely, popular LBGs such as Pokémon GO and Dragonquest Walk ⁷ may rely on satellite navigation, pedometers, gyroscopes, mobile hardware and software. An interesting trend here is that new hardware that may be relevant for AR and LBG experiences has been added to the latest phone models. One example comes from Apple, as since iPhone 12 Pro (up until iPhone 15 at minimum), the phones have now been equipped with LiDAR sensors, enabling the creation of point cloud scans of physical objects. ⁴⁶ LiDAR also enables the detection of surfaces, which can be useful for locative and AR gaming where this can be harnessed to more precisely and accurately position AR content in the real world. ⁴⁷ The technology also has potential in generating holograms of physical objects normally invisible to the user, ⁴⁸ a functionality that may be relevant in certain AR game designs. We predict that these advances in AR-related hardware technology help position AR content more precisely in the real world, creating a stronger and more immersive illusion for the user. Thus, we formulate the following trend.

1. (Technical) Trend #1: Hardware for AR is moving to a direction that enables more seamless, precise and immersive positioning of AR content within the physical world.

   In order to afford immersive AR experiences, there is a need to have interfaces and interaction affordances that feel immersive and easy to use. An area of particular focus in this endeavour have been wearable technologies, which utilise a combination of sensors and computing to support AR and gaming experiences. ^{49 , 50} Games for smart watches ^{51 , 52} can be regarded as one example of the potential of wearables. There are also wearables such as tangible spatially aware objects (e.g., Apple air tags), that are so-far not yet used extensively in the game context, but have the potential to be useful there. With wearables, we have recently seen significant leaps originating from both research (e.g., in the field of medical sciences ^{53 , 54} ) and the industry. For example, in 2023 Apple launched their Vision Pro headset, ⁵⁵ which is a type of mixed-reality headset that has a see-through functionality, enabling the display of AR content. ⁶ Since head-mounted displays, AR glasses, smart watches, and other wearables are becoming more commonplace, shortcomings related to these devices are being resolved, ⁵⁶ and major industry players such as Apple and Meta are investing heavily into them, ⁶ we expect the trend of the wearable gaming devices improving only to continue and enable better AR gaming experiences in the future. ⁵⁰

2. (Technical) Trend #2: Wearable gaming devices will keep getting better, enabling more intuitive interactions and movement in the real world.

   As outlined in (GIS) Trend #4, we are seeing the enhancement of SDIs, which apart from the aspect of expanding GIS data, also has an infrastructure perspective. Notably, the trend is driven by the concept of Digital Earth and interwoven with the Metaverse notion. ^{57 , 58} An SDI includes physical servers, the creation of metadata sets and provision as open data. Masser ⁵⁹ identifies the keys of this trajectory as suitable governance structures, facilitating access, building capacity and interoperable data. These deficits might account for why there is currently little access to public sector SDI. However, it is likely that these current deficits will be eliminated, while SDIs will continue to be enabled for increasingly complex data types (see also (GIS) Trend #2). Consequently, we formulate a trend.

3. (Technical) Trend #3: Spatial data infrastructures are becoming more efficient and will be correspondingly more widely used in LBGs.

   Last but not least, we have the trend of mobile devices getting better and mobile data connections getting faster and cheaper. These trends are rather self-evident, as we see mobile networks being upgraded first from 3G to 4G, and now from 5G to 6G, and we also see newer models for popular brands such as Samsung, Apple and One Plus getting released on a steady pace, each new phone carrying more sensors and computing power than the previous. In addition to devices themselves getting more powerful, we have things such as cloud computing and with a fast mobile connection, more and more of e.g., graphics computing can be offloaded to servers. Such a design has already been introduced e.g., in the Nvidia Shield Tablet, ⁶⁰ and these developments are likely to continue as we move to the future. As such, we propose our final two technical trends.

4. (Technical) Trend #4: Mobile data connectivity will become better and cheaper.

5. (Technical) Trend #5: Mobile devices will have better capabilities for information processing and computing.

2.3 Trends in design

LBG design has evolved over the years hand in hand with technology. However, there are also certain technology-agnostic design elements that we discuss here.

First, as discussed in the Introduction section, the most popular LBGs such as Pokémon GO or Dragonquest Walk are multiplayer online games. ⁷ The social dimension of LBGs has become an integral part of their success, as the games now scaffold social interaction both online and in-person. ^{15 , 17} LBGs such as Pokémon GO also strongly feature user-generated content in the form of players submitting and reviewing points of interests (PoIs) for the game, ²⁹ and since the summer of 2023, now also having the possibility to create walkable paths for others, called Routes. Social playing is emphasised on various levels: there are social in-person gatherings, ¹⁷ online discussions about the game, ⁶¹ coincidental meetups with strangers and motivation to leave one’s house with follow-up potential for meeting and interacting with others. ¹⁴ The social dimensions only appears to have become more important with latest updates and developments in Pokémon GO and other LBGs, ^{16 , 62} and thus, we can expect the trend of social playing to continue moving to the future.

1. Design Trend #1: In-person social playing is a powerful dynamic that LBG designers will likely know to better harness as the genre moves forward.

   Second, accelerated by opportunities in map data and hardware, we may see new ways to make use of map data in LBG design. Already today, we notice a few key differences in how LBGs make use of available map data. ^{1 , 4 , 29} One such difference is in how contemporary popular LBGs connect in-game points of interests (PoIs) to real-world locations or not. ¹ For example, games such as Jurassic World: Alive and Dragonquest walk contain generic PoIs that are pseudo-randomly distributed across a real-world map, whereas games such as Pokémon GO and Ingress (see Figure 2) have most of the in-game interactable PoIs connected to real-world objects and locations. ¹ One challenge of LBGs is the uneven distribution of POIs, which differs for urban and rural areas, for example. ³⁰ Algorithms remedying this challenge are being expected. ⁶³

2. Design Trend #2: LBGs design will look to better combine and integrate the games with real-world landscapes, objects and characteristics.

   Third, we have seen contemporary LBGs add mechanisms that support the games as being part of the players’ daily lives. Mechanisms such as daily first catches in Pokémon GO, daily hacks and hack streaks in Ingress and daily quests in Monster Hunter Now are good examples of popular multiplayer online game mechanics that aim to make playing a routine for the players, a part of their daily schedule. During the COVID-19 pandemic when government measures led LBG designers to alter their game design, we saw a practical example of how the developers aimed to adopt the design of their game in a way that corresponds with players’ lives. ⁶⁴ To accommodate the changes in e.g., recommendations to self-isolate, games such as Harry Potter: Wizards Unite and Pokémon GO were changed to include more opportunities for remote and solo play. ⁶⁴ When we look at evidence from studies on locative crowdsourcing, we also see that participants contribute mostly after work when commuting, ⁶⁵ suggesting that LBGs have become a genre of games specifically serving a purpose of offering “something to do” while carrying out daily locative tasks such as walking the dog, commuting to work or walking to a nearby store for grocery shopping. It makes sense from a financial perspective for LBG developers to draw from this unique position of their games and to increasingly make the games more in-line with players’ daily lives. Further, novel wearables and sensors also enable novel game mechanics which are shaped by the dynamics of movement and location rather than a mobile device such as a smartphone being operated by hand. Game inputs may be generated by movement behaviour, such as entering a building using a specific entrance or crossing the road at certain traffic lights. Smartglasses or projections to the ground may be used for game feedback. In terms of data, dynamic data layers, i.e. data that changes over time, may be integrated into the game, e.g. POIs become those locations where the temperature is most appropriate or the air is cleanest – derived from SmartCity-based sensor networks outside the game. ⁶⁶ This concept might also be used to support socially desirable goals, e.g., the temporal or spatial avoidance of substances that are harmful to health, such as nitrogen oxides or fine dust. Thus, we propose our final trend:

3. Design Trend #3: Towards designs that integrate with players’ daily lives and societal goals.

Figure 2:

Two screenshots of the Neuschwanstein Castle taken by the authors. On the left we display a screenshot from Niantic Campfire, displaying the Pokémon GO view of the castle. On the right we have a screenshot from the game Ingress, taken by the publicly available Ingress Intel Map service.

3.1 Previously proposed and envisioned paths for the future of location-based gaming

While there are multiple academic studies that contain some perspectives on the future of LBGs as a side outcome (see e.g., ^{1 , 14 , 67} ), to the best of our knowledge, there is much less work explicitly on the future of LBGs. One of the few studies is the work of Mangnus et al., ⁶⁸ who proposes an interesting LBG experience taking place in Utrecht, Netherlands in the year 2040 called “Utrecht2040”. The goal of this app is for players to envision the most sustainable experience of their city in the year 2040, and the authors demonstrated that through playing the LBG, players were prompted to reimagine what their city could be like, particularly from the perspectives of inclusivity and mobility. ⁶⁸ This study demonstrates that as LBGs are connected to the real world, they are in a prime position to scaffold meaningful relationships with the physical world around us, and LBGs themselves can act as vehicles for urban design.

In August 2021, John Hanke, the CEO of the major LBG developer Niantic, released an essay where he argued that the metaverse, envisioned as a virtual reality, is a dystopian nightmare. ⁵⁸ Hanke argues that abandoning physical life for a virtual one would have grave consequences on society as a whole. His proposed alternative is a location-based augmented reality (AR) metaverse that would aim to support and scaffold people’s everyday lives and experiences as opposed to replacing them. Hanke’s vision ⁵⁸ is supported by the work of Mangnus et al. ⁶⁸ in the sense that both demonstrate that the inherent connections that LBGs have with the real world help keep players grounded in the physical world and can sustain a desire to care for it. The sustainability perspective is also present in research on smart cities ⁶⁶ and playable cities. ⁶⁹ In this study, we had less focus on the element of sustainability, but none of the trends or trajectories conflict with it either. Returning to Hanke, ⁵⁸ we postulate that simply though scaffolding a deeper connection with our world, LBGs can better sensitize people for real-world problems and issues and empower them to care for our world.

3.2 Connections between location-based games and the physical world

A key overarching theme in several identified trends are the increasingly strong connections between real-world entities and their digital representations in location-based games. In other words, the connections between the real world and the fictive game worlds in LBGs are becoming stronger. This can be seen as a function of increasing data availability, increasing data quality and increasing number of users contributing to LBGs. We argue that LBGs offer a unique positive feedback loop in (geospatial) data generation and curation in that LBGs use user contributions to generate game content, in return increasing overall motivation to play LBGs, in the long run leading to increased user numbers and as such more potential contributors. We have seen this happen already in the case of Niantic’s Ingress (launched in 2012), which was used to create the backbone geo data for the much more successful Pokémon GO (launched in 2016) later on. ¹ In light of this, we see LBGs, in combination with advances in mobile device sensor capabilities, becoming valuable crowdsourcing platforms, motivating the collection and curation of real-world entities with ever-increasing quality and fidelity. ⁷⁰ Technologies such as LiDAR sensors can help here in creating point clouds from the environments where players play. This trend in crowdsourcing will, in our opinion, further support the broader adoption of the technology in the entertainment and education sectors as well as potentially provide data for other contexts such as policy and decision-making in urban and land use planning.

Relating to the growing strength of connections between the real world and virtual worlds, we see LBGs transitioning from a 2.5 dimensional experience (e.g. virtual 3D objects being placed on a 2D representation of the world in map form) with some AR gimmicks, ⁴⁷ to a fully immersive 3D experience including elevation information, digital twins of real-world objects as well as integrating indoor environments and AR content. Seeing the emergence of 3D map tiles, we argue that LBGs will not only adopt but be integral in the creation of the third dimension. This is already hinted at in the popular location-based game developer Niantic adding object scanning features in their games Pokémon GO and Ingress ²⁹ where users take a series of images of points of interest, which are then used to create 3D models of said objects. We believe true 3D experiences (including indoor gameplay) hold great potential in LBGs and will emerge more broadly as the technology evolves.

Among wearables, as discussed in the (technical) trend #2, tangible spatially aware objects are becoming increasingly popular. Devices such as the Apple Airtag and Samsung SmartTag as well as wearables such as smartwatches and smart glasses situate people and objects at specific locations and have seen widespread adoption. This in return suggests an increasing amount of machine-readable data of spatially situated tangible objects which may be exploited in LBGs. We see that in the future, LBGs are going to capitalise on these technologies by integrating spatially situated devices into the gameplay. For example, spatially aware temperature sensors may situate a player in a respective LBG world as well as manipulate the game world according to the real-world temperature of the respective player. Spatially situated (autonomous) smart devices may become integral to the gameplay (e.g. tangible game characters that are passed on from location to location), further increasing the real-world to virtual-world connections.

3.3 Moving away from staring at the smartphone screen

A major consideration in LBGs is the inevitable divided attention between the real-world users are moving through and the virtual game world depicted on their device screen. Users must carefully split their focus between real-world phenomena (e.g. traffic, restricted areas, local laws and regulations, terrain traversability), whilst simultaneously trying to immerse themselves in the fictional world provided by the location-based game. We argue this restricts LBGs from becoming fully immersive experiences. However, through the identified trends, we see LBGs becoming increasingly hybrid in terms of interacting with the game world. In particular, we see two overarching and complementary directions for location-based games in 10 years: (1) the incorporation of alternative interaction possibilities such as LBG specific sensors and wearables; and, (2) a mixed approach to game world exploration through smart devices as well as more computationally powerful devices such as desktops and consoles.

When sticking to the aspect of outdoor locomotion in LBGs, the first trend seems paramount and is supported by wearable devices, ⁵⁰ and head-mounted displays such as AR glasses that will shift our focus away from the mobile device to the real world. ⁶ When focusing on the second aspect, we notice that LBGs are commonly played on mobile devices with limited computational power compared to other gaming platforms. It is thus possible that a new wave of LBGs will emerge, incorporating a mixed approach to interacting with the game world. We expect to see game worlds based on real-world data, augmented with fictional content. With increasingly immersive capabilities such as VR headsets for exploring virtual landscapes, this form of play may become a significant part of gaming in the near future. There is also a third option, a type of hybrid play where some users may be mobile players in the real world and others explore a digital twin of the real world that dynamically updates according to mobile LBG players’ behaviours.

These new forms of LBG play would greatly increase the exploration of, and interactions with the virtual hybrid digital twin game world, opening up various interesting new avenues in terms of education (e.g. exploring new areas of the world and interacting with educational content outside of one’s area of daily mobility), participatory planning (e.g. allowing users to create 3D suggestions for potential infrastructure as has shown potential with Minecraft ⁷¹ ) as well as offer an abundance of new gameplay possibilities (e.g. massively multiplayer online role-playing games set in real-world locations or fantastic interpretations of real-world entities). As such, we believe LBGs may address the issue of split attention and limited immersion by moving towards a multi-faceted approach to interacting with the underlying data and by extension, the virtual game worlds.

3.4 Proposed theses for the future of LBGs

Based on the trends outlined in Table 2, as well as the above presented follow-up analysis, we propose the following theses that could represent the outcomes of the trajectories (mediated by other factors discussed in our analysis) in 10 years. The theses do not necessarily have to apply to all LBGs, but describe characteristics that may be realised in particular LBGs. The theses are displayed in Table 3.

The first thesis links to advances in technology and design, where we will have fun activities that subtly nudge players to do things that promote their health. We already see this thesis in action in games such as Pokémon GO where players move and get fresh air as a collateral outcome of their playing. ¹⁴ The second thesis links to advances in both GIS and hardware and is the outcome of the trend of LBGs utilising more elements of the real world as part of the games. ¹ The third thesis links to hardware. As we obtain new and better head-mounted displays ⁶ and wearables ⁵⁰ we get new opportunities for LBG design where the focus shifts away from the smartphone screen and more towards the real world. The fourth thesis is connected to design opportunities arising from advances in GIS and technology, whereby we are able to explore digital twins of real-world cities and landscapes from the comfort of our home in a more immersive and gamified setting. The fifth thesis is the outcome of advances in GIS, hardware and design to some degree, and suggests that instead of relying solely on elements that already exist in the physical realm, LBGs might start harnessing sensor networks and other internet-of-things structures that seem to be becoming more and more popular in urban environments and smart cities. The sixth thesis links to a trend in GIS where open map resources such as OSM are becoming more widespread and of higher quality. We have government bodies and organisations providing a large variety of open data, and it appears to be only a matter of time before LBGs make better use of the available resources. The seventh thesis links to trends in crowdsourcing ^{29 , 70 , 72} where LBGs have recently been harnessed to collect real-world data. This is an important potential benefit of playing LBGs, and we see it likely that this element will be leveraged more in upcoming years. Thesis number 8 relates to design and GIS trends, as well as the previous thesis, and suggests that through LBGs and crowdsourcing people can be empowered to participate in shaping their cities, both in the physical and digital spheres. We have already seen examples that hint towards this direction, such as e.g., the work of Morschheuser et al. ⁷² who created a prototype game for letting people know about free parking spots. The ninth thesis links back to the beneficial collateral outcomes of playing LBGs, and how through LBGs we might reward and subsequently encourage people to perform tasks and activities that are good for society. Finally, the tenth thesis is related to advances in GIS, and how these may be operationalized in LBG design. We argue that more information of the physical world could be used to create more immersive LBG gameplay.

3.5 Three examples of future LBGs

With ten theses now laid out, next we wish to elaborate on how these may be put into practice with concrete examples. Thus, in this section we ideate and present three possible future designs following the speculative design approach. ^{73 – 75} These designs illustrate the mechanisms and dynamics in practice and offers a lens to a possible future of the LBG genre. We base two of these designs on the Pokémon franchise ⁷⁶ since Pokémon GO is a major reference point in the LBG genre ¹ and the Pokémon franchise is well-known and documented. We argue that for many, Pokémon offers a shared starting point for understanding how the dynamics and ideas presented in this paper could be brought to life. In the third idea we depart from the Pokémon franchise to bring an alternative perspective on these issues through a fictive example game.