Pocketbook Voting in a Polarized Era: Economic Vulnerability and Anti-incumbent Voting in Presidential Elections
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Brian F. Schaffner
Brian F. Schaffner is a Newhouse Professor of Civic Studies in the Department of Political Science and Tisch College at Tufts University. He is also co-principal investigator of the Cooperative Election Study and the author of several books, including most recently
Hometown Inequality: Race, Class, and Representation in American Local Politics (Cambridge University Press, 2020).
and
Caroline Soler
Caroline Soler is a research associate at Tufts University with the Cooperative Election Study. She graduated from Tufts University with a degree in Political Science and Mathematics in 2024.
Abstract
Economic circumstances and vote choice have long been shown to be closely linked, but increasing partisan polarization may be weakening this traditional relationship. We examine whether pocketbook voting – the tendency to vote based on personal economic circumstances – still influences presidential vote choice in this polarized era. Using the Cooperative Election Study’s data from 2020 to 2024, we explore how different indicators of economic vulnerability affect support for incumbent presidential candidates. We find that while partisans remain largely loyal except when suffering the most difficult economic hardships, independent voters show strong anti-incumbent voting when they experience financial strains. Our findings suggest that personal economic circumstances remain influential in American elections, but primarily among voters without strong partisan attachments.
About the authors
Brian F. Schaffner is a Newhouse Professor of Civic Studies in the Department of Political Science and Tisch College at Tufts University. He is also co-principal investigator of the Cooperative Election Study and the author of several books, including most recently Hometown Inequality: Race, Class, and Representation in American Local Politics (Cambridge University Press, 2020).
Caroline Soler is a research associate at Tufts University with the Cooperative Election Study. She graduated from Tufts University with a degree in Political Science and Mathematics in 2024.
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Research funding: This research was sponsored by the National Science Foundation, Award #2342506.
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Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- Articles
- Prologue to 2024
- Electability and Party Power Across Party Lines
- Understanding the Message(s): Spending and Content of Political Advertising on Television in 2024
- Election Advertising on Meta, Google, and Snapchat in 2024
- From the Podium to the Press: Coverage of Kamala Harris’s 2024 Convention Address
- Pocketbook Voting in a Polarized Era: Economic Vulnerability and Anti-incumbent Voting in Presidential Elections
- The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election: Public Opinion on the Economy and Immigration Helped Return Trump to the White House, but with No Clear Policy Mandate
- The 2024 Presidential Election Through Latino Lenses: Priorities and Vote Choice
- Less White than Ever? Using Ecological Inference to Probe the Trump Coalition’s Diversity in Louisiana
- The Trump Effect: Nationalized Narratives and Congressional Outcomes in the 2024 Elections
