The Hardest Path to Reelection: Dueling Incumbent House Primaries in 2022
-
M.V. Hood
and
Seth C. McKee
Abstract
In this article, we examine the six dueling incumbent U.S. House primaries in the 2022 midterm elections. Our principal aim is to answer the question: Who wins these rare but consequential contests that ensure one incumbent does not return to Congress? Contrary to the intuition that retaining more of one’s previous constituents is a considerable electoral advantage, district- and precinct-level data suggest this was not pivotal. Instead, in these four Democrat versus Democrat and two Republican versus Republican dueling incumbent primaries, explanations for winning or losing appear to hinge on other factors. For the Republican races, former President Trump’s endorsement appears to have gone a long way in influencing the outcome. In the Democratic contests, descriptive representation, ideological fit, and intra-party meddling and a scandal, played a part in determining the victor.
Democratic primary model for Georgia CD 7 in 2022.
| Variable | Coefficient | Standard error |
|---|---|---|
| McBath retained precincts | 0.233* | 0.015 |
| Bourdeaux retained precincts | −0.131* | 0.008 |
| % Black turnout | 0.357* | 0.027 |
| % Asian turnout | 0.009 | 0.109 |
| % Hispanic turnout | 0.202 | 0.163 |
| % Other turnout | −0.148 | 0.160 |
| Constant | 0.489* | 0.027 |
| R 2 | 0.89 | |
| n | 141 |
-
OLS coefficients weighted by Democratic primary turnout. DV: percent McBath vote out of all primary votes cast. For precinct type, redrawn precincts are the omitted comparison group. White turnout is the omitted comparison group for turnout percent by race/ethnicity. *p < 0.001.
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