Obama’s Party? An Examination of Whether a Reluctant Party Leader Transformed the Democratic Party in his Favor
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Julia R. Azari
Julia R. Azari is Associate Professor of Political Science at Marquette University. She is the author of
Delivering the People’s Message: The Changing Politics of the Presidential Mandate (Cornell) and a regular contributor atFiveThirtyEight.com .
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Seth Masket
Seth Masket is Professor of Political Science and director of the Center on American Politics at the University of Denver. He is the author, most recently, of
Learning from Loss: The Democrats 2016–2020 (Cambridge) andPolitical Parties (W. W. Norton).
Abstract
We examine Barack Obama’s influence over the Democratic Party as an ex-president from three vantage points: his popularity among partisans, his control over party nominations, and his rhetorical influence over party platform stances. The findings are somewhat mixed. Compared with other contemporary presidents, Obama is far more popular among co-partisan voters. However, he has had only modest influence in presidential nominations, and, unlike other modern presidents, a waning influence on party platform stances. The findings are suggestive not only about Obama’s own interests but also about institutional constraints of modern presidents.
About the authors
Julia R. Azari is Associate Professor of Political Science at Marquette University. She is the author of Delivering the People’s Message: The Changing Politics of the Presidential Mandate (Cornell) and a regular contributor at FiveThirtyEight.com.
Seth Masket is Professor of Political Science and director of the Center on American Politics at the University of Denver. He is the author, most recently, of Learning from Loss: The Democrats 2016–2020 (Cambridge) and Political Parties (W. W. Norton).
Table A1 shows the predicted values for feeling thermometer scores for recent presidents. Unsurprisingly, presidents typically inspire warmer feelings among their co-partisans than among members of the opposite party. Again, we see larger differences between strong and weak partisans for Bush and Obama, and Obama’s ratings were much more polarized.
Predicted values of feeling thermometer scores for past presidents, by partisan identification.
| Reagan | Clinton | W. Bush | Obama | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Democrat | 35.01 | 85.9 | 20.17 | 96.3 |
| Weak Democrat | 43.4 | 77.03 | 29.14 | 84 |
| Ind.-Lean Dem. | 51.2 | 68.99 | 35.8 | 75.4 |
| Independent | 59.13 | 61.08 | 45.79 | 60.6 |
| Ind.-Lean Rep. | 64.4 | 48.1 | 57.3 | 44.07 |
| Weak Republican | 71.72 | 37.5 | 63.7 | 35.39 |
| Strong Republican | 78.02 | 27.1 | 75.2 | 20.58 |
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Model controlled for race, gender, age, education and ideological self-placement.
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© 2022 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston
Artikel in diesem Heft
- Frontmatter
- Introduction
- Introduction: Volume 20 No. 2
- Articles
- The Rural-Urban Continuum and the 2020 U. S. Presidential Election
- Obama’s Party? An Examination of Whether a Reluctant Party Leader Transformed the Democratic Party in his Favor
- Public Opinion and the Candidate Spouses in the 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary
- Writing “Home” in a Pandemic: The Prevalence of Gendered Topics in Congressional COVID-19 Communications
- Attitudes and Perceptions about the 2020 Presidential Election and Turnout Intentions in the 2022 Midterms
- Embracing Donald Trump’s Big Lie and Making Voting Harder Are Republicans Sure They Know What They are Doing?
- Surge and Decline in 2022
Artikel in diesem Heft
- Frontmatter
- Introduction
- Introduction: Volume 20 No. 2
- Articles
- The Rural-Urban Continuum and the 2020 U. S. Presidential Election
- Obama’s Party? An Examination of Whether a Reluctant Party Leader Transformed the Democratic Party in his Favor
- Public Opinion and the Candidate Spouses in the 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary
- Writing “Home” in a Pandemic: The Prevalence of Gendered Topics in Congressional COVID-19 Communications
- Attitudes and Perceptions about the 2020 Presidential Election and Turnout Intentions in the 2022 Midterms
- Embracing Donald Trump’s Big Lie and Making Voting Harder Are Republicans Sure They Know What They are Doing?
- Surge and Decline in 2022
