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The Muslim Ban and Preventive Care for Children of Middle Eastern Ancestry

  • Shooshan Danagoulian , Owen Fleming , Daniel Grossman and David Slusky
Published/Copyright: May 26, 2025

Abstract

Individuals of Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) ancestry in the US have been the targets of anti-immigrant policies, counterterrorism operations, and vitriolic political rhetoric. Yet, lack of data identifying MENA individuals has prevented systematic evaluation of the impact of these policies and rhetoric on MENA communities’ wellbeing, including investment in health capital. We begin to address this gap in knowledge by focusing on the travel ban from majority Muslim countries implemented at the start of the first Trump administration. Using a large, longitudinal medical records database we evaluate the impact of this policy on preventive care use among MENA children in the US, finding decreased well-visits, and associated vaccinations among MENA children. Documenting MENA health outcomes following changes in official US policy is paramount for understanding the full consequences of policies that target underrepresented groups.

JEL Classification: I14; I18; H12; J15

Corresponding author: Shooshan Danagoulian, Wayne State University, Detroit, MI, USA, E-mail:

Appendix A: Data

A.1 Racial and Ethnic Composition of Patients

Figure A1: 
Individual counts and composition over time. (a) Count. (b) Share. Source: COVID-19 Research Database, 2013–2019. Notes: Each bar/point represents the number or share of unique patients with an encounter within each year by race and ethnicity. Asian, Hispanic, and MENA individual patient counts are based on the secondary y-axis, while all patient and White patient counts are based on the primary y-axis.
Figure A1:

Individual counts and composition over time. (a) Count. (b) Share. Source: COVID-19 Research Database, 2013–2019. Notes: Each bar/point represents the number or share of unique patients with an encounter within each year by race and ethnicity. Asian, Hispanic, and MENA individual patient counts are based on the secondary y-axis, while all patient and White patient counts are based on the primary y-axis.

A.2 State Composition

The data does not represent a balanced panel of either individuals nor states. This raises the concern that as states enter and exit the panel, the composition of individuals tracked over time changes, creating omitted variable bias. In this appendix, we explore the impact of the changing composition of states.

Figure A1 shows the share of sample by state over the years of panel. We see that the early years of the panel (2004–2008) are dominated by Washington and Massachusetts. By 2009, these states have a smaller share, though they continue to have an outsize share relative to others. In 2013–2014 observations from Ohio begin to dominate the sample, remaining a steady 20%–23 % of the sample through the end of the panel period.

Therefore, recognizing significant compositional changes attributable to states drifting in and out of the sample, we limit our sample to 2012–2019 so that the composition of states is constant over time, as described above.

Figure A2: 
State shares in samples across years. Source: COVID-19 Research Database, HealthJump and AnalyticIQ 2004–2019.
Figure A2:

State shares in samples across years. Source: COVID-19 Research Database, HealthJump and AnalyticIQ 2004–2019.

Figure A3: 
Length in range of birth year by race and ethnicity of patient. (a) White. (b) Asian. (c) Hispanic. (d) MENA. Source: COVID-19 Research Database, 2013–2019. Notes: Each bar/point represents the share of unique patients whose age range has the length specified on the horizontal axis.
Figure A3:

Length in range of birth year by race and ethnicity of patient. (a) White. (b) Asian. (c) Hispanic. (d) MENA. Source: COVID-19 Research Database, 2013–2019. Notes: Each bar/point represents the share of unique patients whose age range has the length specified on the horizontal axis.

Appendix B: Adjusted Time Trends, all Groups

Figure B1: 
Adjusted time trend by race/ethnicity. (a) On schedule on vaccines. (b) Total count of vaccines. (c) Total count of lead tests. Source: COVID-19 Research Database, 2013–2019. Notes: Outcomes are well-visits (monthly occurrence and total), vaccines (whether on schedule and total), and lead tests (total) in each month. Annual trends adjusted with fixed effects for years in panel, state, year by month, state by year, and birth year. Averages have been added to adjusted trends for ease of interpretation.
Figure B1:

Adjusted time trend by race/ethnicity. (a) On schedule on vaccines. (b) Total count of vaccines. (c) Total count of lead tests. Source: COVID-19 Research Database, 2013–2019. Notes: Outcomes are well-visits (monthly occurrence and total), vaccines (whether on schedule and total), and lead tests (total) in each month. Annual trends adjusted with fixed effects for years in panel, state, year by month, state by year, and birth year. Averages have been added to adjusted trends for ease of interpretation.

Figure B2: 
Quarterly and monthly event studies for well-visits. (a) Quarterly frequency. (b) Monthly frequency. Source: COVID-19 Research Database, 2013–2019. Notes: Each point is estimate of difference between MENA and non-Hispanic White child relative to 2016. Outcomes are well-visits (monthly occurrence and total) in each month and each quarter. Annual trends adjusted with fixed effects for years in panel, state, year by month, state by year, and birth year. Standard errors clustered at birth year level. 95 % confidence intervals around estimate.
Figure B2:

Quarterly and monthly event studies for well-visits. (a) Quarterly frequency. (b) Monthly frequency. Source: COVID-19 Research Database, 2013–2019. Notes: Each point is estimate of difference between MENA and non-Hispanic White child relative to 2016. Outcomes are well-visits (monthly occurrence and total) in each month and each quarter. Annual trends adjusted with fixed effects for years in panel, state, year by month, state by year, and birth year. Standard errors clustered at birth year level. 95 % confidence intervals around estimate.

Figure B3: 
Event study without de-trending of data with MENA pre-trend indicated. (a) Any well-visits in month. (b) Total count of well-visits. (c) On schedule on vaccines. (d) Total count of vaccines. (e) Total count of lead tests. Source: COVID-19 Research Database, 2013–2019. Notes: Each point is estimate of difference between MENA and non-Hispanic White child relative to 2016. Outcomes are well-visits (monthly occurrence and total), vaccines (whether on schedule and total), and lead tests (total) in each month. Annual trends adjusted with fixed effects for years in panel, state, year by month, state by year, and birth year. Standard errors clustered at birth year level. 95 % confidence intervals around estimate.
Figure B3:

Event study without de-trending of data with MENA pre-trend indicated. (a) Any well-visits in month. (b) Total count of well-visits. (c) On schedule on vaccines. (d) Total count of vaccines. (e) Total count of lead tests. Source: COVID-19 Research Database, 2013–2019. Notes: Each point is estimate of difference between MENA and non-Hispanic White child relative to 2016. Outcomes are well-visits (monthly occurrence and total), vaccines (whether on schedule and total), and lead tests (total) in each month. Annual trends adjusted with fixed effects for years in panel, state, year by month, state by year, and birth year. Standard errors clustered at birth year level. 95 % confidence intervals around estimate.

Appendix C: Additional Regression Results, all Groups

Table C1:

Summary statistics.

(1) (2)
Before After
Panel A: Well visits

% with any in month

 MENA 0.0891 0.0582
 Hispanic 0.0943 0.0525
 Asian 0.1041 0.0726
 Non-Hispanic White 0.0804 0.0536

Total count

 MENA 2.6974 3.4809
 Hispanic 2.1172 2.6776
 Asian 2.4374 3.1139
 Non-Hispanic White 2.4606 2.8253

Panel B: Vaccines

% on schedule

 MENA 0.2080 0.2952
 Hispanic 0.3625 0.4390
 Asian 0.2553 0.3289
 Non-Hispanic White 0.2215 0.2893

Total count

 MENA 13.4856 17.7584
 Hispanic 13.3218 16.3998
 Asian 14.2955 18.0316
 Non-Hispanic White 19.5097 24.9682

Panel C: Blood lead testing

Total count

 MENA 0.0076 0.0048
 Hispanic 0.0021 0.0024
 Asian 0.0037 0.0035
 Non-Hispanic White 0.0204 0.0227

Panel D: Demographics

Female

 MENA 0.4493 0.4904
 Hispanic 0.5448 0.5646
 Asian 0.5102 0.5329
 Non-Hispanic White 0.5120 0.5347

Medicaid

 MENA 0.2368 0.2036
 Hispanic 0.5834 0.5451
 Asian 0.1832 0.1395
 Non-Hispanic White 0.1726 0.1405

Panel E: Age (% of individuals)

Age 0–7

 MENA 0.0045 0.0024
 Hispanic 0.0153 0.0133
 Asian 0.0130 0.0061
 Non-Hispanic White 0.0140 0.0078

Age 8–12

 MENA 0.3707 0.0287
 Hispanic 0.3129 0.0479
 Asian 0.4028 0.0421
 Non-Hispanic White 0.3850 0.0581

Age 13–17

 MENA 0.9592 0.9928
 Hispanic 0.9504 0.9790
 Asian 0.9476 0.9921
 Non-Hispanic White 0.9430 0.9873
n (Children) 65,182 43,493
N (Tracked Months) 2,050,337 948,907
  1. Source: COVID-19 Research Database, 2013–2019. Notes: In Panels A and B the total count of well-visits and vaccines is calculated based on the cumulative number of these at the end of the pre- and post-period respectively. In Panel E, each category of age reflect the share of individual children in each. As children age they are present in more than one category. This motivates the large proportion of children in the 13–17 age group, and that the age do not sum to 1. For vaccines, the monthly indicator is whether child is compliant with AAP recommended schedule.

Table C2:

Two-way fixed effects, all groups.

(1) (2) (3)
Well-visits Vaccines Lead test
Any in month Total count On schedule Total count Total count
ASIAN −0.00001 0.0002 −0.0004 −0.0225 0.0001
(0.0013) (0.0373) (0.0126) (0.4320) (0.0021)
MENA 0.0002 −0.0036 −0.0006 −0.0361 0.0001
(0.0013) (0.0533) (0.0154) (0.3675) (0.0046)
HISPANIC 0.0001 −0.0184 0.0005 0.0303 −0.0001
(0.0007) (0.0232) (0.0060) (0.4288) (0.0023)
ASIAN * POST 0.0009 −0.0159 −0.1054*** −4.1374*** −0.0011
(0.0014) (0.0390) (0.0192) (0.7825) (0.0013)
MENA * POST −0.0083*** −0.0964 −0.0283 −1.6976** −0.0041
(0.0028) (0.0661) (0.0204) (0.7276) (0.0039)
HISPANIC * POST −0.0021 0.0754*** 0.001 0.171 0.0037
(0.0013) (0.0267) (0.0056) (1.2153) (0.0022)
Dep. var. mean 0.041 2.025 0.2808 14.6871 0.0055
State FE YES YES YES YES YES
Month * year FE YES YES YES YES YES
State * year FE YES YES YES YES YES
Demographics YES YES YES YES YES
N 2,999,244 2,999,245 2,999,244 2,999,244 2,999,246
  1. Source: COVID-19 Research Database, 2013–2019. Notes: Outcomes are well-visits (monthly occurrence and total), vaccines (whether on schedule and total), and lead tests (total) in each month. Annual trends adjusted with fixed effects for years in panel, state, year by month, state by year, and birth year. Standard errors clustered at birth year level. ***p < 0.01 **p < 0.05 *p < 0.1.

Table C3:

Two-way fixed effects estimates stratified by gender.

(1) (2) (3)
Well-visits Vaccines Lead test
Any in month Total count On schedule Total count Total count
Panel A: Female

MENA −0.0007 0.0373 0.0082 −0.2927 −0.0025
(0.0011) (0.0609) (0.0234) (0.6020) (0.0047)
MENA * POST −0.0059 −0.0809 −0.0489 −2.2960** −0.0047
(0.0040) (0.0669) (0.0307) (1.0832) (0.0049)
Dep. var. mean 0.0425 2.061 0.2653 13.9532 0.0051
N 1,402,068 1,402,068 1,402,068 1,402,068 1,402,068

Panel B: Male

MENA 0.0012 −0.056 −0.0099 0.2177 0.0038
(0.0018) (0.0855) (0.0262) (0.6543) (0.0073)
MENA * POST −0.0110*** −0.116 −0.0097 −1.1858 −0.0041
(0.0027) (0.1063) (0.0236) (1.9627) (0.0067)
Dep. var. mean 0.0398 1.9935 0.2943 15.3312 0.0059
N 1,597,176 1,597,176 1,597,176 1,597,176 1,597,176
State FE YES YES YES YES YES
Month * year FE YES YES YES YES YES
State * year FE YES YES YES YES YES
Demographics YES YES YES YES YES
  1. Source: COVID-19 Research Database, 2013–2019. Notes: Outcomes are well-visits (monthly occurrence and total), vaccines (whether on schedule and total), and lead tests (total) in each month. Annual trends adjusted with fixed effects for years in panel, state, year by month, state by year, and birth year. Standard errors clustered at birth year level. ***p < 0.01 **p < 0.05 *p < 0.1.

Appendix D: Travel to Middle Eastern Countries

Figure D1: 
Travel to Middle Eastern Countries from the United States. Source: US Department of Homeland Security Advanced Passenger Information System (APIS – formerly DHS I-92) 2013–2019. Notes: Obtained from US Department of Commerce National Travel and Tourism Office report “Market Profile: US Travelers to: Middle East”. All airlines are required to electronically submit passenger data on flights arriving and departing from the US. Leisure includes passenger counts who report primary trip purpose as leisure/vacation/holiday or visiting friends/relatives.
Figure D1:

Travel to Middle Eastern Countries from the United States. Source: US Department of Homeland Security Advanced Passenger Information System (APIS – formerly DHS I-92) 2013–2019. Notes: Obtained from US Department of Commerce National Travel and Tourism Office report “Market Profile: US Travelers to: Middle East”. All airlines are required to electronically submit passenger data on flights arriving and departing from the US. Leisure includes passenger counts who report primary trip purpose as leisure/vacation/holiday or visiting friends/relatives.

Appendix E: Sensitivity of Main Results to State Inclusion

Figure E1: 
Leave-one-out analysis of states (main estimate in black; estimate excluding New York in red; estimate excluding Ohio in blue). (a) On schedule on vaccines. (b) Total count of vaccines. (c) Any well-visits in month. (d) Total count of well-visits. (e) Total count of lead tests. Source: COVID-19 Research Database, 2013–2019. Notes: Each point is estimate of difference between MENA and non-Hispanic White child relative to 2016. Outcomes are vaccines (whether on schedule and total), well-visits (monthly occurrence and total), and lead tests (total) in each month. Annual trends adjusted with fixed effects for years in panel, state, year by month, state by year, and birth year. The following estimates are highlighted: main estimate in black; estimate excluding New York in red; estimate excluding Ohio in blue. Standard errors clustered at birth year level. 95 % confidence intervals around estimate.
Figure E1:

Leave-one-out analysis of states (main estimate in black; estimate excluding New York in red; estimate excluding Ohio in blue). (a) On schedule on vaccines. (b) Total count of vaccines. (c) Any well-visits in month. (d) Total count of well-visits. (e) Total count of lead tests. Source: COVID-19 Research Database, 2013–2019. Notes: Each point is estimate of difference between MENA and non-Hispanic White child relative to 2016. Outcomes are vaccines (whether on schedule and total), well-visits (monthly occurrence and total), and lead tests (total) in each month. Annual trends adjusted with fixed effects for years in panel, state, year by month, state by year, and birth year. The following estimates are highlighted: main estimate in black; estimate excluding New York in red; estimate excluding Ohio in blue. Standard errors clustered at birth year level. 95 % confidence intervals around estimate.

Appendix F: Alternative Sample Definitions

Table F1:

Alternative assumptions about child age.

(1) (2) (3)
Well-visits Vaccines Lead test
Any in month Total count On schedule Total count Total count
Panel A: Highest possible birth year

MENA 0.0004 −0.0091 −0.0009 −0.0825 0.0001
(0.0013) (0.0878) (0.0207) (1.0052) (0.0045)
MENA * POST −0.0070*** −0.0125 −0.0196 −1.5635 −0.0018
(0.0018) (0.0783) (0.0271) (1.3327) (0.0030)
Dep. var. mean 0.0471 2.2854 0.198 10.9652 0.0081
N 3,511,811 3,511,811 3,511,811 3,511,811 3,511,811

Panel B: Lowest possible birth year

MENA 0.0004 0.0061 −0.0007 −0.0331 0.0001
(0.0013) (0.0469) (0.0188) (0.5622) (0.0039)
MENA * POST −0.0041* 0.0593 −0.0395* −2.3932** −0.0006
(0.0021) (0.0775) (0.0228) (0.9622) (0.0023)
Dep. var. mean 0.0638 2.5022 0.2161 12.0289 0.0069
N 2,259,576 2,259,576 2,259,576 2,259,576 2,259,576

Panel C: All births after 1996

MENA 0.0009 −0.0218 −0.0011 −0.0683 0.00003
(0.0017) (0.0661) (0.0174) (0.5610) (0.0031)
MENA * POST −0.0053** −0.2012*** −0.0241 −2.0880*** 0.0005
(0.0021) (0.0633) (0.0142) (0.6544) (0.0027)
Dep. var. mean 0.0369 1.6534 0.1872 9.953 0.0056
N 6,472,755 6,472,755 6,472,755 6,472,755 6,472,755
State FE YES YES YES YES YES
Month * year FE YES YES YES YES YES
State * year FE YES YES YES YES YES
Demographics YES YES YES YES YES
  1. Source: COVID-19 Research Database, 2013–2019. Notes: Outcomes are well-visits (monthly occurrence and total), vaccines (whether on schedule and total), and lead tests (total) in each month. In Panel A, the birth year is set at the maximum of the range; Panel B, the birth year is set at the minimum of the range; Panel C includes all births, whether or not the age range can be narrowed down further. Annual trends adjusted with fixed effects for years in panel, state, year by month, state by year, and birth year. Standard errors clustered at birth year level. ***p < 0.01 **p < 0.05 *p < 0.1.

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Received: 2024-12-17
Accepted: 2025-03-27
Published Online: 2025-05-26

© 2025 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

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