Abstract
After four decades of unprecedented growth, the Chinese economy faces a plethora of structural problems: The bursting of the world’s largest real estate bubble, the demographic decline and the turn to a preference for autarky are resulting in a potent mix. Solving the above-named problems will results in a prolonged phase of slow growth or even stagnation. Not tackling the issues will be even worse, for the adjustment process will eventually be even more painful. Real estate is probably the biggest issue. Too many apartments were built for too few people. The second key problem is the demography. The United Nations are suggesting that China’s population may shrink to about half its current level by 2100. Since China does not consider immigration, the aging population will be a drag on economic development and, of course, real estate. The Chinese Communist Party has engineered an economic mirage: That soufflé will only rise once.
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© 2023 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston
Artikel in diesem Heft
- Frontmatter
- Editorial
- The Economists’ Voice, December Issue 2023, Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Policy Making
- Policy Papers
- European Public Policies and Sovereign Risk in the Eurozone: How State-Contingent Governance Hampers Fiscal Discipline
- The Reform of the European Fiscal Rules: In Search of Mechanisms Ensuring Sustainable Debt Levels
- How Brexit Damaged the United Kingdom and the City of London
- Understanding Economic Sanctions on Iran: A Survey
- A Soufflé only Rises Once: China’s Grim Economic Prospects
- Policy Forum: Geopolitical Tensions and Deglobalization
- Deglobalization: Reasons and Effects
- Geopolitical Tensions and Global Monetary (Dis)Order
- From BRICS to BRICS+: Sheer More Members is not a Challenge to G7
- The Rise and Fall of the Eurasian Regionalism
- Caught up by Geopolitics: Sanctions and the EU’s Response to Russia’s War Against Ukraine
- China’s Central Role in the Globalization and Slowbalization Trends
- German Chinese Economic Relations: Necessary Reassessment
- China’s Economy as Xi’s Means of Power Or Why the Chinese Economy is Not yet Bigger than That of the USA
- Systemic Rivalry of China and the West in Climate Policy
Artikel in diesem Heft
- Frontmatter
- Editorial
- The Economists’ Voice, December Issue 2023, Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Policy Making
- Policy Papers
- European Public Policies and Sovereign Risk in the Eurozone: How State-Contingent Governance Hampers Fiscal Discipline
- The Reform of the European Fiscal Rules: In Search of Mechanisms Ensuring Sustainable Debt Levels
- How Brexit Damaged the United Kingdom and the City of London
- Understanding Economic Sanctions on Iran: A Survey
- A Soufflé only Rises Once: China’s Grim Economic Prospects
- Policy Forum: Geopolitical Tensions and Deglobalization
- Deglobalization: Reasons and Effects
- Geopolitical Tensions and Global Monetary (Dis)Order
- From BRICS to BRICS+: Sheer More Members is not a Challenge to G7
- The Rise and Fall of the Eurasian Regionalism
- Caught up by Geopolitics: Sanctions and the EU’s Response to Russia’s War Against Ukraine
- China’s Central Role in the Globalization and Slowbalization Trends
- German Chinese Economic Relations: Necessary Reassessment
- China’s Economy as Xi’s Means of Power Or Why the Chinese Economy is Not yet Bigger than That of the USA
- Systemic Rivalry of China and the West in Climate Policy