Home European Public Policies and Sovereign Risk in the Eurozone: How State-Contingent Governance Hampers Fiscal Discipline
Article
Licensed
Unlicensed Requires Authentication

European Public Policies and Sovereign Risk in the Eurozone: How State-Contingent Governance Hampers Fiscal Discipline

  • Ad van Riet ORCID logo EMAIL logo
Published/Copyright: June 21, 2023

Abstract

The 30 years old Maastricht Treaty on European Union (EU) is based on the political vision that a stable euro requires sound budgetary policies and sustainable public finances in all the participating countries. This article reviews how the European framework for managing sovereign risk in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has evolved in challenging times. The main finding is that over the years European policymakers have applied a range of special provisions contingent on the state of national economies, the demand for public investment, the need for a sound financial system, the effectiveness of monetary transmission, or on general concerns with the integrity of the eurozone, in a way which hampers fiscal discipline. The growing prominence of this state-contingent governance could mark the political transition from the Maastricht Treaty’s focus on public risk reduction to a ‘Next Generation EMU’ which favours public risk sharing. The challenge in designing the future EMU architecture will be to balance the need to preserve the integrity of eurozone with the need for fiscal discipline.

JEL Classification: E5; F36; F45; G28; H6

Corresponding author: Ad van Riet, United Nations University-Institute on Comparative Regional Integration Studies, 8000, Bruges, Belgium, E-mail:
Associate Research Fellow at the United Nations University-Institute on Comparative Regional Integration Studies (UNU-CRIS), Bruges, Belgium. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and should not be reported as representing an official position of UNU-CRIS.

Acknowledgements

An earlier version of this article was presented at the 11th Biennial Conference of the ECPR Standing Group on the European Union, LUISS University, Rome, 8–10 June 2022, and at the Conference on the 30th Anniversary of the Maastricht Treaty, Maastricht University and Studio Europa Maastricht, 28–29 September 2022. Comments from Lukas Spielberger, conference participants and two anonymous reviewers are gratefully acknowledged.

References

Afonso, A., M. G. Arghyrou, M. D. Gadea, and A. Kontonikas. 2018. ““Whatever it Takes” to Resolve the European Sovereign Debt Crisis? Bond Pricing Regime Switches and Monetary Policy Effects.” Journal of International Money and Finance 86: 1–30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2018.04.005.Search in Google Scholar

Alberola, E., G. Cheng, A. Consiglio, and S. A. Zenios. 2022. “Debt Sustainability and Monetary Policy: The Case of ECB Asset Purchases.” BIS Working Paper, No. 1034, July.10.2139/ssrn.4254184Search in Google Scholar

Armingeon, K., C. de la Porte, E. Heins, and S. Sacchi. 2022. “Voices From the Past: Economic and Political Vulnerabilities in the Making of Next Generation EU.” Comparative European Politics 20 (2): 144–65. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41295-022-00277-6.Search in Google Scholar

Artis, M., and B. Winkler. 1998. “The Stability Pact: Safeguarding the Credibility of the European Central Bank.” National Institute Economic Review 163 (1): 87–98. https://doi.org/10.1177/002795019816300110.Search in Google Scholar

Assenmacher, K. 2023. “The ECB’s Transmission Protection Instrument and Fiscal Stability.” The Economists’ Voice 20 (1): 89–95. https://doi.org/10.1515/ev-2023-0016.Search in Google Scholar

Bindseil, U., M. Corsi, B. Sahel, and A. Visser. 2017. “The Eurosystem Collateral Framework Explained.” ECB Occasional Paper, No. 189, May.Search in Google Scholar

Bindseil, U., and F. Papadia. 2006. “Credit Risk Mitigation in Central Bank Operations and its Effects on Financial Markets: The Case of the Eurosystem.” ECB Occasional Paper, No. 49, August.10.2139/ssrn.807426Search in Google Scholar

Blanchard, O. J., Á. Leandro, and J. Zettelmeyer. 2021. “Redesigning EU Fiscal Rules: From Rules to Standards.” Economic Policy 36 (106): 195–236. https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiab003.Search in Google Scholar

Borger, V. 2020. The Currency of Solidarity: Constitutional Transformation During the Euro Crisis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/9781108864633Search in Google Scholar

Breton, T., and P. Gentiloni. 2022. “Germany’s Latest Response to Energy Crisis Raises Questions. Only a Common and United European Response Can Preserve Our Industry and Protect Our Citizens.” Irish Times. 3 October. https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2022/10/03/germanys-latest-response-to-energy-crisis-raises-questions/ (accessed March 16, 2023).Search in Google Scholar

Buiter, W. H., and A. Sibert. 2005. “How the Eurosystem’s Treatment of Collateral in its Open Market Operations Weakens Fiscal Discipline in the Eurozone (and What to Do About it).” CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 5387, December.Search in Google Scholar

Buti, M., and S. Fabbrini. 2023. “Next Generation EU and the Future of Economic Governance: Towards a Paradigm Change or Just a Big One-Off?” Journal of European Public Policy 30 (4): 676–95. https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2022.2141303.Search in Google Scholar

Buti, M., and L. R. Pench. 2012. “Fiscal Austerity and Policy Credibility.” Column on VoxEU, CEPR’s Policy Portal. 20 April. https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/fiscal-austerity-and-policy-credibility (accessed March 16, 2023).Search in Google Scholar

Carnazza, G., and P. Liberati. 2021. “The Asymmetric Impact of the Pandemic Crisis on Interest Rates on Public Debt in the Eurozone.” Journal of Policy Modeling 43 (3): 521–42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2021.04.001.Search in Google Scholar

Cœuré, B. 2016. Sovereign Debt in the Euro Area: Too Safe or Too Risky? Keynote address at Harvard University’s Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies in Cambridge, MA, 3 November.Search in Google Scholar

Corradin, S., N. Grimm, and B. Schwaab. 2021. “Euro Area Sovereign Bond Risk Premia During the COVID-19 Pandemic.” ECB Working Paper, No. 2561, May.10.2139/ssrn.3857400Search in Google Scholar

Cour-Thimann, P., and B. Winkler. 2016. “Central Banks as Balance Sheets of Last Resort: The ECB’s Monetary Policy in a Flow-of-Funds Perspective.” In Monetary Analysis at Central Banks, edited by D. Cobham, 53–92. London: Palgrave Macmillan.10.1057/978-1-137-59335-1_3Search in Google Scholar

da Costa Cabral, N. 2021. “Borrowing in the European Union: From a Pure National Model to the Antechamber of a European Fiscal Federal Solution.” Journal of European Integration 43 (8): 939–54. https://doi.org/10.1080/07036337.2021.1881499.Search in Google Scholar

Draghi, M. 2012. “Remarks Made at the Global Investment Conference.” London. 26 July.Search in Google Scholar

Draghi, M. 2022. “Address to the European Parliament.” Strasbourg. 3 May.Search in Google Scholar

Eijffinger, S. C. W., and M. Pieterse-Bloem. 2022. “Eurozone Government Bond Spreads: A Tale of Different ECB Policy Regimes.” CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 17533.10.1016/j.jimonfin.2023.102965Search in Google Scholar

European Central Bank. 2015. “The Role of the Central Bank Balance Sheet in Monetary Policy.” Economic Bulletin 4: 61–77.Search in Google Scholar

European Commission. 2018. “Communication on the Review of the Flexibility under the Stability and Growth Pact.” COM(2018) 335. Brussels. 23 May. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52018DC0335 (accessed March 16, 2023).Search in Google Scholar

European Commission. 2022. “Communication on Orientations for a Reform of the EU Economic Governance Framework.” COM(2022) 583. Brussels. 9 November. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52022DC0583&qid=1669888504282 (accessed March 16, 2023).Search in Google Scholar

European Commission. 2023. “Commission Proposes New Economic Governance Rules Fit for the Future.” Press release. Brussels. 26 April. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_2393 (accessed May 22, 2023).Search in Google Scholar

European Systemic Risk Board. 2022. “Recommendation of 2 December 2021 on Reform of Money Market Funds.” ESRB/2021/9, 25 January. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32022Y0322%2801%29 (accessed March 16, 2023).Search in Google Scholar

Fabbrini, F. 2022. “The Legal Architecture of the Economic Responses to COVID-19: EMU Beyond the Pandemic.” Journal of Common Market Studies 60 (1): 186–203. https://doi.org/10.1111/jcms.13271.Search in Google Scholar

Fendel, R., and F. Neugebauer. 2019. “Country-Specific Euro Area Government Bond Yield Reactions to ECB’s Non-standard Monetary Policy Program Announcements.” German Economic Review 21 (4): 417–74. https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2018-0094.Search in Google Scholar

Fuest, C. 2021. “The NGEU Economic Recovery Fund.” CESifo Forum 22 (1): 3–8.Search in Google Scholar

Gabor, D., and C. Ban. 2016. “Banking on Bonds: The New Links between States and Markets.” Journal of Common Market Studies 54 (3): 617–35. https://doi.org/10.1111/jcms.12309.Search in Google Scholar

General Secretariat of the EU Council. 2015. “Commonly Agreed Position on Flexibility in the Stability and Growth Pact.” Note 14345/15. Brussels. 30 November. https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-14345-2015-INIT/en/pdf (accessed March 16, 2023).Search in Google Scholar

Guter-Sandu, A., and S. Murau. 2022. “The Eurozone’s Evolving Fiscal Ecosystem: Mitigating Fiscal Discipline by Governing Through Off-Balance-Sheet Fiscal Agencies.” New Political Economy 27 (1): 62–80. https://doi.org/10.1080/13563467.2021.1910648.Search in Google Scholar

Hauptmeier, S., F. Holm-Hadulla, and T. Renault. 2022. “Risk Sharing and Monetary Policy Transmission.” ECB Working Paper, No. 2746, November.10.2139/ssrn.4275322Search in Google Scholar

Hauser, P. 2020. “Critical Analysis of the Zero Risk Weight Privilege for European Sovereign Debt in Light of Art. 124 TFEU.” The Economists’ Voice 17 (1): 22. https://doi.org/10.1515/ev-2019-0022.Search in Google Scholar

Heipertz, M., and A. Verdun. 2010. Ruling Europe: The Politics of the Stability and Growth Pact. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9780511750380Search in Google Scholar

Hondroyiannis, G., and D. Papaoikonomou. 2022. “The Effect of Eurosystem Asset Purchase Programmes on Euro Area Sovereign Bond Yields During the COVID-19 Pandemic.” Empirical Economics 63 (6): 2997–3026. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-022-02225-5.Search in Google Scholar

Jaillet, P., and C. Pfister. 2022. “Better Fiscal Rules for a More Integrated EMU.” Intereconomics 57 (6): 377–83. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10272-022-1091-0.Search in Google Scholar

James, H. 2012. Making the European Monetary Union: The Role of the Committee of Central Bank Governors and the Origins of the European Central Bank. Cambridge: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.Search in Google Scholar

Kamps, C., and N. Leiner-Killinger. 2019. “Taking Stock of the EU Fiscal Rules over the Past 20 Years and Options for Reform.” Journal of Economics and Statistics / Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 239 (5–6): 861–94, https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2018-0090.Search in Google Scholar

Laffan, B. 2023. “Collective Power Europe?” Government and Opposition. in press https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2022.52.Search in Google Scholar

Lagarde, C. 2022. Monetary Policy in an Uncertain World. Speech at the ‘ECB and its Watchers Conference XXII’, Frankfurt am Main, 17 March.Search in Google Scholar

Lagarde, C., and L. de Guindos. 2020. Transcript of the Questions and Answers at the Press Conference After the Governing Council Meeting on 12 March 2020.Search in Google Scholar

Lane, P. R. 2020. The ECB’s Monetary Policy Response to the Pandemic: Liquidity, Stabilisation and Supporting the Recovery. Speech At the Financial Center Breakfast Webinar Organised by Frankfurt Main Finance, 24 June.Search in Google Scholar

Lane, P. R. 2021. “The Resilience of the Euro.” The Journal of Economic Perspectives 35 (2): 3–22. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.35.2.3.Search in Google Scholar

Lane, P. R. 2022. Monetary Policy During the Pandemic: The Role of the PEPP. Speech at the International Macroeconomics Chair Banque de France – Paris School of Economics, Paris, 31 March.Search in Google Scholar

Lane, T. D. 1993. “Market Discipline.” IMF Staff Papers 40 (1): 53–88. https://doi.org/10.2307/3867377.Search in Google Scholar

Larch, M., M. Busse, M. Gabrijelcic, L. Jankovics, and J. Malzubris. 2022. “Assessment of the EU’s Fiscal Framework and the Way Forward: Persisting Tensions between Risk Reduction and Risk Sharing.” Bruges European Economic Research Papers, No. 42.Search in Google Scholar

Larch, M., J. Malzubris, and S. Santacroce. 2023. “Numerical Compliance with EU Fiscal Rules: Facts and Figures from a New Database.” Intereconomics 58 (1): 32–42.10.2478/ie-2023-0008Search in Google Scholar

Marimon, R., and A. Wicht. 2021. “Euro Area Fiscal Policies and Capacity in Post-pandemic Times. Study Requested by the ECON Committee of the European Parliament, PE 651.392, June.” https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2021/651392/IPOL_STU(2021)651392_EN.pdf (accessed March 16, 2023).Search in Google Scholar

Mertens, D., and M. Thiemann. 2019. “Building a Hidden Investment State? The European Investment Bank, National Development Banks and European Economic Governance.” Journal of European Public Policy 26 (1): 23–43. https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2017.1382556.Search in Google Scholar

Mosley, L. 2004. “Government–Financial Market Relations after EMU: New Currency, New Constraints?” European Union Politics 5 (2): 181–209. https://doi.org/10.1177/1465116504042443.Search in Google Scholar

Ojala, M. 2021. “Doing Away With the Sovereign: Neoliberalism and the Promotion of Market Discipline in European Economic Governance.” New Political Economy 26 (1): 203–15. https://doi.org/10.1080/13563467.2020.1729714.Search in Google Scholar

Orphanides, A. 2017. “ECB Monetary Policy and Euro Area Governance: Collateral Eligibility Criteria for Sovereign Debt.” In New Challenges in Central Banking: Monetary Policy Governance And Macroprudential Issues, edited by E. Gnan, and D. Masciandaro, 13–28. Vienna: SUERF and BAFFI CAREFIN Centre.10.2139/ssrn.3076184Search in Google Scholar

Praet, P. 2015. “Public Sector Security Purchases and Monetary Dominance in a Monetary Union Without a Fiscal Union.” In Speech at the Conference ‘The ECB and its Watchers XVI’, Frankfurt am Main, 11 March.Search in Google Scholar

Preunkert, J. 2017. “Financialization of Government Debt? European Government Debt Management Approaches 1980–2007.” Competition and Change 21 (1): 27–44. https://doi.org/10.1177/1024529416678072.Search in Google Scholar

Rostagno, M., C. Altavilla, G. Carboni, W. Lemke, R. Motto, and A. Saint-Guilhem. 2021. Monetary Policy in Times of Crisis: A Tale of Two Decades of the European Central Bank. Oxford: Oxford University Press.10.1093/oso/9780192895912.001.0001Search in Google Scholar

Rother, P. 2010. “The Flexibility Provisions of the Stability and Growth Pact in Times of Crisis.” In Euro Area Fiscal Policies and the Crisis, edited by A. van Riet, 63–5. ECB Occasional Paper, No. 109, April.Search in Google Scholar

Schelkle, W. 2017. The Political Economy of Monetary Solidarity – Understanding the Euro Experiment. Oxford: Oxford University Press.10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198717935.001.0001Search in Google Scholar

van der Veer, R. A. 2022. “Walking the Tightrope: Politicization and the Commission’s Enforcement of the SGP.” Journal of Common Market Studies 60 (1): 81–100. https://doi.org/10.1111/jcms.13272.Search in Google Scholar

van Riet, A. 2019. “Twenty Years of European Central Bank Monetary Policy: A Keynesian and Austrian Perspective.” Journal of Economics and Statistics / Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 239 (5–6): 797–840, https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2018-0078.Search in Google Scholar

van Riet, A. 2021. “Safe and Risky Sovereigns in the Euro Area Capital Market: Financial Drivers of Fiscal Policies in Germany and Italy.” German Politics 30 (3): 441–61. https://doi.org/10.1080/09644008.2021.1881956.Search in Google Scholar

van Riet, A. 2023. “European Financial Law and the State-Finance Nexus: Sovereign Privileges or Market Discipline for Safe Public Debt?” Finance and Society 9 (2): 39–57, https://doi.org/10.2218/finsoc.8799.Search in Google Scholar

von der Leyen, U. 2022. Speech at the College of Europe. Bruges, 4 December.Search in Google Scholar

Wieser, T. 2018. “Fiscal Rules and the Role of the Commission.” Column on VoxEU, CEPR’s Policy Portal, 21 May https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/fiscal-rules-and-role-commission (accessed May 22, 2023).Search in Google Scholar

Received: 2023-03-16
Accepted: 2023-06-02
Published Online: 2023-06-21

© 2023 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

Downloaded on 19.9.2025 from https://www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi/10.1515/ev-2023-0013/html
Scroll to top button