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Chapter 6: Decline Has Multiple Causes

© 2019 Academic Studies Press, Boston, USA

© 2019 Academic Studies Press, Boston, USA

Chapters in this book

  1. Frontmatter i
  2. Table of Contents vii
  3. Acknowledgements xi
  4. Foreword xiii
  5. INTRODUCTION A Thought Experiment xv
  6. Part I. QUESTIONS OF DEFINITION AND METHODOLOGY
  7. Introduction 3
  8. Chapter 1: Civilization or Culture? 4
  9. Chapter 2: At the Crossroads: The Trouble with “Rising,” “Thriving,” and “Declining” 8
  10. Chapter 3: A Selection of Historians: Three Categories 13
  11. Chapter 4: On Philosophy of History 16
  12. Chapter 5: Obstacles to Foresight 20
  13. Part II. HISTORIANS ON RISE AND DECLINE
  14. Introduction 27
  15. Chapter 1: Thucydides, Greece, ca. 460-400 BCE 29
  16. Chapter 2: Sima Qian, China, ca. 145-90 BCE 35
  17. Chapter 3: Ibn Khaldun, Tunisia, 1332-1406 CE 43
  18. Chapter 4: Edward Gibbon, UK, 1737-1794 50
  19. Chapter 5: Jacob Burckhardt, Switzerland, 1818-1897 57
  20. Chapter 6: Max Weber, Germany, 1864-1920 64
  21. Chapter 7: Oswald Spengler, Germany, 1880-1936 68
  22. Chapter 8: Johan Huizinga, Netherlands, 1872-1945 72
  23. Chapter 9: Arnold Toynbee, UK, 1889-1975 77
  24. Chapter 10: Pitirim Sorokin, USA, 1889-1968 83
  25. Chapter 11: Fernand Braudel, France, 1902-1985 87
  26. Chapter 12: Marshall G.S. Hodgson, USA, 1922-1968 92
  27. Chapter 13: Bernard Lewis, USA, 1916— 97
  28. Chapter 14: Jonathan I. Israel, USA, 1946— 101
  29. Chapter 15: Paul Kennedy , USA, 1945— 106
  30. Chapter 16: Jared Diamond, USA, 1937— 108
  31. Chapter 17: Bryan Ward-Perkins, UK, 1952— 110
  32. Chapter 18: Mancur Olson, USA, 1932-1998 113
  33. Chapter 19: Peter Turchin, USA, 1957— 114
  34. Chapter 20: Christopher Chase-Dunn, USA, 1944— and Thomas D. Hall, USA, 1946— 115
  35. Chapter 21: Joseph A. Tainter, USA, 1949— 117
  36. Chapter 22: Arthur Herman, USA, 1956— 118
  37. Part III. MACRO-HISTORICAL CONDITIONS OF RISE, GOLDEN AGE, AND DECLINE
  38. Introduction 123
  39. Chapter 1: “Challenge-and-Response” 124
  40. Chapter 2: Windows of Opportunity 130
  41. Chapter 3: Global Up- and Downturns 133
  42. Chapter 4: Thriving Civilizations, or the Myth of a Golden Age 135
  43. Chapter 5: Cultural Accomplishments of Thriving Civilizations 139
  44. Chapter 6: Decline Has Multiple Causes 148
  45. Chapter 7: Global Futures: “End of Civilization” or “Decline of the West”? 153
  46. Part IV. DRIVERS OF RISE AND DECLINE OF CIVILIZATIONS: GENERAL OBSERVATIONS AND JEWISH HISTORY
  47. Introduction 161
  48. Chapter 1: Religion: Identity Safeguards and their Downsides 162
  49. Chapter 2: Extra-Rational Bonds: Tacit Consensus or Group Cohesion 180
  50. Chapter 3: Education, Science and Technology: Drivers of the Future 193
  51. Chapter 4: Language: A Factor in Rise and Decline 211
  52. Chapter 5: Creative Leadership and Political Elites 220
  53. Chapter 6: Numbers and Critical Mass 242
  54. Chapter 7: Economic Foundations of Long-Lasting Civilizations 253
  55. Chapter 8: War: A Double-Edged Sword 278
  56. Chapter 9: Geopolitics and Civilizational Affinities 301
  57. Chapter 10: Internal Dissent 315
  58. Chapter 11: “Fortune” or Chance Events 329
  59. Chapter 12: Natural and Health Disasters 342
  60. Part V. DRIVERS OF TRANSFORMATION: TWO CASE STUDIES
  61. Introduction 353
  62. Chapter 1: Transforming a Small Country into a Great Power: The Dutch Republic 354
  63. Chapter 2: Transforming Great-Power Decline into New Power Rise: Turkey 358
  64. Outlook and Conclusions 362
  65. Afterword 366
  66. APPENDIX
  67. Appendix A: A Framework for Policy-Makers 373
  68. Appendix B: JPPI Brainstorming Participants 380
  69. Selected Bibliography 382
  70. Notes 403
  71. Index 439
Rise and Decline of Civilizations
This chapter is in the book Rise and Decline of Civilizations
https://doi.org/10.1515/9781618112774-039

Chapters in this book

  1. Frontmatter i
  2. Table of Contents vii
  3. Acknowledgements xi
  4. Foreword xiii
  5. INTRODUCTION A Thought Experiment xv
  6. Part I. QUESTIONS OF DEFINITION AND METHODOLOGY
  7. Introduction 3
  8. Chapter 1: Civilization or Culture? 4
  9. Chapter 2: At the Crossroads: The Trouble with “Rising,” “Thriving,” and “Declining” 8
  10. Chapter 3: A Selection of Historians: Three Categories 13
  11. Chapter 4: On Philosophy of History 16
  12. Chapter 5: Obstacles to Foresight 20
  13. Part II. HISTORIANS ON RISE AND DECLINE
  14. Introduction 27
  15. Chapter 1: Thucydides, Greece, ca. 460-400 BCE 29
  16. Chapter 2: Sima Qian, China, ca. 145-90 BCE 35
  17. Chapter 3: Ibn Khaldun, Tunisia, 1332-1406 CE 43
  18. Chapter 4: Edward Gibbon, UK, 1737-1794 50
  19. Chapter 5: Jacob Burckhardt, Switzerland, 1818-1897 57
  20. Chapter 6: Max Weber, Germany, 1864-1920 64
  21. Chapter 7: Oswald Spengler, Germany, 1880-1936 68
  22. Chapter 8: Johan Huizinga, Netherlands, 1872-1945 72
  23. Chapter 9: Arnold Toynbee, UK, 1889-1975 77
  24. Chapter 10: Pitirim Sorokin, USA, 1889-1968 83
  25. Chapter 11: Fernand Braudel, France, 1902-1985 87
  26. Chapter 12: Marshall G.S. Hodgson, USA, 1922-1968 92
  27. Chapter 13: Bernard Lewis, USA, 1916— 97
  28. Chapter 14: Jonathan I. Israel, USA, 1946— 101
  29. Chapter 15: Paul Kennedy , USA, 1945— 106
  30. Chapter 16: Jared Diamond, USA, 1937— 108
  31. Chapter 17: Bryan Ward-Perkins, UK, 1952— 110
  32. Chapter 18: Mancur Olson, USA, 1932-1998 113
  33. Chapter 19: Peter Turchin, USA, 1957— 114
  34. Chapter 20: Christopher Chase-Dunn, USA, 1944— and Thomas D. Hall, USA, 1946— 115
  35. Chapter 21: Joseph A. Tainter, USA, 1949— 117
  36. Chapter 22: Arthur Herman, USA, 1956— 118
  37. Part III. MACRO-HISTORICAL CONDITIONS OF RISE, GOLDEN AGE, AND DECLINE
  38. Introduction 123
  39. Chapter 1: “Challenge-and-Response” 124
  40. Chapter 2: Windows of Opportunity 130
  41. Chapter 3: Global Up- and Downturns 133
  42. Chapter 4: Thriving Civilizations, or the Myth of a Golden Age 135
  43. Chapter 5: Cultural Accomplishments of Thriving Civilizations 139
  44. Chapter 6: Decline Has Multiple Causes 148
  45. Chapter 7: Global Futures: “End of Civilization” or “Decline of the West”? 153
  46. Part IV. DRIVERS OF RISE AND DECLINE OF CIVILIZATIONS: GENERAL OBSERVATIONS AND JEWISH HISTORY
  47. Introduction 161
  48. Chapter 1: Religion: Identity Safeguards and their Downsides 162
  49. Chapter 2: Extra-Rational Bonds: Tacit Consensus or Group Cohesion 180
  50. Chapter 3: Education, Science and Technology: Drivers of the Future 193
  51. Chapter 4: Language: A Factor in Rise and Decline 211
  52. Chapter 5: Creative Leadership and Political Elites 220
  53. Chapter 6: Numbers and Critical Mass 242
  54. Chapter 7: Economic Foundations of Long-Lasting Civilizations 253
  55. Chapter 8: War: A Double-Edged Sword 278
  56. Chapter 9: Geopolitics and Civilizational Affinities 301
  57. Chapter 10: Internal Dissent 315
  58. Chapter 11: “Fortune” or Chance Events 329
  59. Chapter 12: Natural and Health Disasters 342
  60. Part V. DRIVERS OF TRANSFORMATION: TWO CASE STUDIES
  61. Introduction 353
  62. Chapter 1: Transforming a Small Country into a Great Power: The Dutch Republic 354
  63. Chapter 2: Transforming Great-Power Decline into New Power Rise: Turkey 358
  64. Outlook and Conclusions 362
  65. Afterword 366
  66. APPENDIX
  67. Appendix A: A Framework for Policy-Makers 373
  68. Appendix B: JPPI Brainstorming Participants 380
  69. Selected Bibliography 382
  70. Notes 403
  71. Index 439
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