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Predictable Winners
A Handbook for Developing, Forecasting, and Launching New Products and Services
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Language:
English
Published/Copyright:
2025
About this book
A USA Today Bestseller
A leading global consulting firm on how to achieve new product launch success rates far above industry averages.
New product launches are risky. But disciplined innovation practices lead to success rates well above industry benchmarks. Predictable Winners is a comprehensive handbook of best practices for improving the odds of success at every step of the innovation journey—from concept development through commercial launch and beyond. Product leaders, innovation teams, and senior executives will find practical insights to reduce product risk and improve R&D effectiveness and ROI, while delighting customers with a pipeline of compelling new products and services.
The authors' systematic approach is covered step-by-step in twenty-five chapters on topics like assembling the right team, identifying innovation opportunities, conducting a disciplined, data-driven assessment of a new product's revenue potential, making wise investment decisions, and more. Predictable Winners also details how to use quantitative tools to disaggregate and reduce the distinct risks around competing product concepts, customer segments, channels, pricing, and launch planning. Finally, because not all breakthrough innovation comes from internal teams, the authors also explain advanced strategies for improving the odds of success: balancing organic innovation with external acquisitions or licensing.
Author / Editor information
Stuart Jackson led L.E.K. Consulting as Global Managing Partner and now serves as Vice Chair. He has worked with hundreds of clients who have enjoyed higher growth, increased their profit margins in existing businesses, added scores of new services and products, and completed more than 100 merger and acquisition transactions. He is a past recipient of Consulting Magazine's Top 25 Consultants award. He is the author of the highly acclaimed book Where Value Hides: A New Way to Uncover Profitable Growth for Your Business (Wiley, 2006) and has contributed to The Wall Street Journal, The Journal of Business Strategy and Harvard Business Review.
Ilya Trakhtenberg is a Managing Director with L.E.K. Consulting and a leading partner in its healthcare practice. In his 15 years with L.E.K., he has led hundreds of engagements with a wide range of corporate and private equity clients to develop and launch innovative new products, accelerate business growth, and deliver superior investment returns. He has published more than a dozen journal articles, serves as a regular speaker at industry conferences, and founded L.E.K.'s MedTech Launch Center of Excellence. Ilya is also a past recipient of M&A Advisor's Emerging Leaders Award and a board member of L.E.K.'s global Sustainability Centre of Excellence.
Reviews
"Provides a great framework for those of us involved in early-stage product platform development as we make the tough calls on where to place our investment bets."
—Paul K. Wooton, Adjunct Professor, Rice Bioengineering & Exec Director Rice Biotech Launch Pad
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"One thing I really like about this book is its strategic approach to both internal product development and acquisition of innovative new platforms. Few organizations combine both effectively."
—Kevin Mayer, CEO Candle Media, Former CEO TikTok
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"This is how investors want their CEOs to think. When does a team seek input into product/market fit? Not just at the outset, but every day along the way. When does a team stop pressure-testing the product concept against the market need? Never. When does a product owner stop listening? Never. The lessons provided by the authors are practical, applicable, and invaluable."
—Paul LaViolette, Managing Partner, SV Health Investors, former COO Boston Scientific
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"...a menu of options to optimize your chances of winning with new innovations. The framework in this book will help you move faster, be smarter in defining the market and the potential upside, and execute with confidence to increase your chances of success."
—Ania Smith, CEO, TaskRabbit
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"Success today is often about which teams can change and innovate the fastest. This book will help organizations get new products right the first time. It should be a cornerstone of management development programs."
—Paul Walsh, Chairman McLaren Group
Topics
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Frontmatter
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Contents
v -
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Acknowledgments
xiii - PART I Configuring for Success
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ONE Use a Systematic Approach to Beat the Odds
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TWO Manage Risks by Evaluating Multiple Indicators of Success
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THREE Avoid the Seven Behaviors that Reduce the Odds for Many Innovators
19 - PART II Developing Product and Service Concepts
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FOUR Look for What’s Broken, Who’s Not Being Served, and How to Leverage Your Strengths
29 -
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FIVE Take Advantage of Direct Market Feedback and Rapid Prototypes
38 -
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SIX Embrace Continuous Upgrades and Lean Development for Digital-Led Businesses
47 -
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SEVEN Move Up the Detect-Analyze-Act Pyramid to Enrich Products Using Digital
55 -
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EIGHT Use a Start-Up Mindset for Breakthrough Innovation in Large Companies
67 - PART III Forecasting Revenue
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NINE Build a Business Case to Avoid the Product Graveyard
81 -
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TEN Size the Prize and Identify the Customers You Will Win
87 -
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ELEVEN Gather Customer Insights, Not “Voice of Customer”
101 -
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TWELVE Never Take Market Research at Face Value
117 -
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THIRTEEN Assume Your Competitors Are at Least as Smart as You Are
124 -
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FOURTEEN Price to Unlock the Full Value of Your Innovation
133 -
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FIFTEEN Build a High-Confidence Revenue Forecast
153 -
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SIXTEEN Create a Bulletproof Business Case
170 - PART IV Ensuring Commercial Success
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SEVENTEEN Identify and Lower the Biggest Barriers to Adoption
181 -
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EIGHTEEN Plan Enough but Not Too Much
193 -
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NINETEEN Take the Shortest Path to Value, Not to Market
201 -
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TWENTY Prime the Organization for a Successful Launch
213 - PART V Creating Long-Term Value
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TWENTY-ONE Turn a Single Success into an Enduring Franchise
223 -
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TWENTY-TWO Make Use of Acquisitions and Partnerships to Accelerate Innovation Value
231 -
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TWENTY-THREE Embrace Proven Pathways for Long Lead-Time Innovation
239 -
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TWENTY-FOUR Use Incremental Developments to Complement Breakthrough Innovation
246 -
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TWENTY-FIVE Turn Gaps into Strengths for Start-Ups and Entrepreneurs
255 - Appendices
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APPENDIX 1 Tools for Market Research
263 -
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APPENDIX 2 Real-World Data Resources to Complement Market Research
277 -
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APPENDIX 3 Estimating Purchase Intent
279 -
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APPENDIX 4 Revenue Modeling Best Practices
283 -
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Notes
287 -
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Index
295
Publishing information
Pages and Images/Illustrations in book
eBook published on:
March 25, 2025
eBook ISBN:
9781503642126
Pages and Images/Illustrations in book
Main content:
318
eBook ISBN:
9781503642126
Keywords for this book
Product innovation; service innovation; new product development; innovation; product pipeline; product launch; product team; product leader; revenue modeling; forecasting; pricing strategy
Audience(s) for this book
For an expert adult audience, including professional development and academic research
