The Justice Dilemma

Abusive leaders are now held accountable for their crimes in a way that was unimaginable just a few decades ago. What are the consequences of this recent push for international justice? In The Justice Dilemma, Daniel Krcmaric explains why the "golden parachute" of exile is no longer an attractive retirement option for oppressive rulers. He argues that this is both a blessing and a curse: leaders culpable for atrocity crimes fight longer civil wars because they lack good exit options, but the threat of international prosecution deters some leaders from committing atrocities in the first place. The Justice Dilemma therefore diagnoses an inherent tension between conflict resolution and atrocity prevention, two of the signature goals of the international community.

Krcmaric also sheds light on several important puzzles in world politics. Why do some rulers choose to fight until they are killed or captured? Why not simply save oneself by going into exile? Why do some civil conflicts last so much longer than others? Why has state-sponsored violence against civilians fallen in recent years?

While exploring these questions, Krcmaric marshals statistical evidence on patterns of exile, civil war duration, and mass atrocity onset. He also reconstructs the decision-making processes of embattled leaders—including Muammar Gaddafi of Libya, Charles Taylor of Liberia, and Blaise Compaoré of Burkina Faso—to show how contemporary international justice both deters atrocities and prolongs conflicts.

Daniel Krcmaric is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Northwestern University. Follow him on X @DanKrcmaric.

This compelling book tackles a big question about world leaders: Why do some unpopular dictators go into exile abroad while others stay at home and fight to the death? In answering this question, Daniel Krcmaric provides new and important insights about international institutions, civil war, and the role of individual leaders in world politics. The Justice Dilemma is a go-to source for understanding the sources and consequences of leader exile and should be widely read in classrooms, government offices, and secretariats of international organizations around the world. Highly recommended!

Elizabeth Saunders, Georgetown University:

The Justice Dilemma is a very important contribution to the debate over holding leaders accountable for atrocities. Krcmaric argues that the globalization of international justice generates two competing forces. Leaders are deterred from committing atrocities because they fear international accountability, but those who perpetrate violence against their own people will fight to the bitter end—prolonging some civil wars—because a safe exile is no longer possible. Clear-eyed, tightly argued, and backed by strong statistical and qualitative evidence, The Justice Dilemma shows both the promise and challenges of international accountability.

Michael C. Horowitz, University of Pennsylvania:

The Justice Dilemma, makes tremendous contributions to the study of international relations. Weaving together quantitative and qualitative evidence, Krcmaric demonstrates that, due to the incentives facing leaders, a crucial dilemma can sometimes exist between the pursuit of international justice and the goal of ending civil wars. I highly recommend this book to all interested in international politics, and particularly for the insights on leadership, international law, and human rights.

Jack Snyder, Columbia University, co-author of Electing to Fight:

Krcmaric tackles an unresolved old chestnut debate: whether legal accountability deters future atrocities or drags out violence that harms civilians by increasing perpetrators' incentives to fight to the death. Drawing on impeccable logic, statistical analysis, and readable, well-executed case studies, he convincingly shows that both effects are significantly in play. While other authors have written about this conundrum, no one has posed the logic of the situation so clearly, nor illuminated the answer with evidence that is so precisely targeted. The Justice Dilemma is the kind of work that will have a big impact on the debate.