The Myth of the Nuclear Revolution

Leading analysts have predicted for decades that nuclear weapons would help pacify international politics. The core notion is that countries protected by these fearsome weapons can stop competing so intensely with their adversaries: they can end their arms races, scale back their alliances, and stop jockeying for strategic territory. But rarely have theory and practice been so opposed. Why do international relations in the nuclear age remain so competitive? Indeed, why are today's major geopolitical rivalries intensifying?

In The Myth of the Nuclear Revolution, Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press tackle the central puzzle of the nuclear age: the persistence of intense geopolitical competition in the shadow of nuclear weapons. They explain why the Cold War superpowers raced so feverishly against each other; why the creation of "mutual assured destruction" does not ensure peace; and why the rapid technological changes of the 21st century will weaken deterrence in critical hotspots around the world.

By explaining how the nuclear revolution falls short, Lieber and Press discover answers to the most pressing questions about deterrence in the coming decades: how much capability is required for a reliable nuclear deterrent, how conventional conflicts may become nuclear wars, and how great care is required now to prevent new technology from ushering in an age of nuclear instability.

Keir A. Lieber is Director of the Center for Security Studies and Security Studies Program and Associate Professor in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and Department of Government at Georgetown University. He is the author of War and the Engineers.

Daryl G. Press is Associate Professor in the Department of Government at Dartmouth College. He is the author of Calculating Credibility.

Deterring nuclear attack and coercion remains our top defense priority; but deterrence credibility demands updated concepts, tailored strategies, and integrated application of all instruments of national power. Lieber and Press's thoughtful analysis challenges us to reconsider the historic assumptions at the heart of this credibility.

Brad Roberts, Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense:

Albert Einstein famously quipped that the atomic bomb 'has changed everything except our way of thinking.' Seven decades later, Lieber and Press invite us to consider how little has changed in the behavior of states. With fresh and compelling analysis, they argue that the persistence of strategic competition among states armed with the ultimate means of self defense calls into question the purported nuclear revolution in world politics.

John J. Mearsheimer, University of Chicago, author of The Great Delusion:

This is the most important book written about nuclear strategy since the Cold War. Lieber and Press offer a powerful and compelling challenge to the widely held belief that nuclear weapons have revolutionized world politics. It is a must read for students of international security.

Nuno Monteiro, Yale University:

With a provocative argument and careful evidence, The Myth of the Nuclear Revolution questions decades of received wisdom on the role of nuclear weapons. A must-read.