Chapters in this book

1. Frontmatter i
2. CONTENTS vii
3. Preface xi
4. Acknowledgments xiii
5. List of Abbreviations xv
6. PART I. BASEBALL
7. 1. Baseball’s Pythagorean Theorem 3
8. 2. Who Had a Better Year, Nomar Garciaparra or Ichiro Suzuki? 11
9. 3. Evaluating Hitters by Linear Weights 17
10. 4. Evaluating Hitters by Monte Carlo Simulation 30
11. 5. Evaluating Baseball Pitchers and Forecasting Future Pitcher Performance 41
12. 6. Baseball Decision- Making 52
13. 7. Evaluating Fielders 64
14. 8. Player Win Averages 71
15. 9. The Value of Replacement Players 79
16. 10. Park Factors 84
17. 11. Streakiness in Sports 87
18. 12. The Platoon Effect 102
19. 13. Was Tony Perez a Great Clutch Hitter? 106
20. 14. Pitch Count and Pitcher Effectiveness 110
21. 15. Would Ted Williams Hit .406 Today? 113
22. 16. Was Joe DiMaggio’s 56- Game Hitting Streak the Greatest Sports Record of All Time? 116
23. 17. Major League Equivalents 123
24. PART II. FOOTBALL
25. 18. What Makes NFL Teams Win? 127
26. 19. Who’s Better, Tom Brady or Peyton Manning? 132
27. 20. Football States and Values 138
28. 21. Football Decision- Making 101 143
29. 22. A State and Value Analysis of the 2006 Super Bowl Champion Colts 151
30. 23. If Passing Is Better Than Running, Why Don’t Teams Always Pass? 158
31. 24. Should We Go for a One- Point or Two- Point Conversion 165
32. 25. To Give Up the Ball Is Better Than to Receive 172
33. 26. Why Is the NFL’s Overtime System Fatally Flawed? 175
34. 27. How Valuable Are High Draft Picks in the NFL? 180
35. PART III. BASKETBALL
36. 28. Basketball Statistics 101 187
37. 29. Linear Weights for Evaluating NBA Players 195
38. 30. Adjusted+/-Player Ratings 202
39. 31. NBA Lineup Analysis 224
40. 32. Analyzing Team and Individual Matchups 228
41. 33. NBA Players’ Salaries and the Draft 233
42. 34. Are NBA Officials Prejudiced? 237
43. 35. Are College Basketball Games Fixed? 242
44. 36. Did Tim Donaghy Fix NBA Games? 244
45. 37. End- Game Basketball Strategy 248
46. PART IV. PLAYING WITH MONEY, AND OTHER TOPICS FOR SERIOUS SPORTS FANS
47. 38. Sports Gambling 101 255
48. 39. Freakonomics Meets the Bookmaker 262
49. 40. Rating Sports Teams 266
50. 41. Which League Has Greater Parity, The NFL or the NBA? 283
51. 42. The Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) 287
52. 43. From Point Ratings to Probabilities 290
53. 44. Optimal Money Management 298
54. 45. Ranking Great Sports Collapses 303
55. 46. Can Money Buy Success? 311
56. 47. Does Joey Crawford Hate the Spurs? 319
57. 48. Does Fatigue Make Cowards of Us All? 321
58. 49. Can the Bowl Championship Series Be Saved? 324
59. 50. Comparing Players from Different Eras 331
60. 51. Conclusions 335
61. Epilogue to the Paperback Edition 341
62. Index of Databases 355
63. Annotated Bibliography 357
64. Index 367