1. Expectations from Estimative Intelligence and Anticipatory Foreign Policy: A Realistic Appraisal

Chapters in this book

1. Frontmatter i
2. Intelligence, Surveillance and Secret Warfare ii
3. Contents v
4. List of Contributors vii
5. Acknowledgements xi
6. Introduction: Estimative Intelligence and Anticipatory Foreign Policy 1
7. 1. Expectations from Estimative Intelligence and Anticipatory Foreign Policy: A Realistic Appraisal 27
8. 2. Surprise, Revisited: An EU Performance Evaluation of the Arab Uprisings 69
9. 3. How Germany and the UK Anticipated ISIS’s Rise to Power in Syria and Iraq 96
10. 4. The Case of the Ukraine–Russia Undeclared War 2013/2014: Lessons for the EU’s Estimative Intelligence 129
11. 5. The Case of the UK: Intelligence Assessment, Priorities and Knowing that you are Being Warned 160
12. 6. ‘We Never Plan for the Worst Case’: Considering the Case of Germany 190
13. 7. Lessons Learned and Still to be Learned: The Case of the European Union 220
14. 8. Which Lessons to Learn from an Era of Surprise? Key Findings and Implications from the Dual Comparison 248
15. References 291
16. Index 329