Chapters in this book

1. Frontmatter i
2. Contents vii
3. Acknowledgments ix
4. 1. Reducing uncertainty 1
5. 2. Myths, fears, and expectations 19
6. 3. Spies collect data, analysts provide insight 33
7. 4. Using intelligence to anticipate opportunities and shape the future 50
8. 5. Estimative analysis: what it is, what it isn’t, and how to read it 67
9. 6. A tale of two estimates 89
10. 7. Epilogue: lessons and challenges 126
11. Notes 141
12. Index 171