Chapters in this book

1. Frontmatter i
2. Contents v
3. List of Contributors vii
4. Acknowledgments ix
5. PART ONE: Counterfactual Inference: Form and Function
6. 1. Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives 3
7. 2. Causes and Counterfactuals in Social Science: Exploring an Analogy between Cellular Automata and Historical Processes 39
8. PART TWO: Counterfactual Analysis of Particular Events
9. 3. Counterfactual Reasoning in Western Studies of Soviet Politics and Foreign Relations 71
10. 4. Confronting Hitler and Its Consequences 95
11. 5. Back to the Past: Counterfactuals and the Cuban Missile Crisis 119
12. 6. Counterfactual Reasoning in Motivational Analysis: U.S. Policy toward Iran 149
13. PART THREE: Counterfactual Analysis of Classes of Events
14. 7. Counterfactuals about War and Its Absence 171
15. 8. Using Counterfactuals in Historical Analysis: Theories of Revolution 187
16. PART FOUR: Counterfactuals and Game Theory
17. 9. Counterfactuals and International Affairs: Some Insights from Game Theory 211
18. 10. Off-the-Path Behavior: A Game-Theoretic Approach to Counterfactuals and Its Implications for Political and Historical Analysis 230
19. PART FIVE: Computer and Mental Simulations of Possible Worlds
20. 11. Rerunning History: Counterfactual Simulation in World Politics 247
21. 12. Counterfactuals, Past and Future 268
22. PART SIX: Commentaries
23. 1. Conceptual Blending and Counterfactual Argument in the Social and Behavioral Sciences 291
24. 2. Psychological Biases in Counterfactual Thought Experiments 296
25. 3. Counterfactual Inferences as Instances of Statistical Inferences 301
26. 4. Counterfactuals, Causation, and Complexity 309