Chapters in this book

1. Frontmatter i
2. CONTENTS vii
3. PREFACE xiii
4. Introduction 1
5. 1. Clinical Guidelines and Clinical Judgment 8
6. 2. Wishful Extrapolation from Research to Patient Care 27
7. 3. Credible Use of Evidence to Inform Patient Care 47
8. 4. Reasonable Care under Uncertainty 74
9. 5. Reasonable Care with Sample Data 87
10. 6. A Population Health Perspective on Reasonable Care 100
11. 7. Managing Uncertainty in Drug Approval 108
12. Conclusion 117
13. Complement 1A. Overview of Research on Lymph Node Dissection 120
14. Complement 1B. Formalization of Optimal Choice between Surveillance and Aggressive Treatment 129
15. Complement 2A. Odds Ratios and Health Risks 132
16. Complement 3A. The Ecological Inference Problem in Personalized Risk Assessment 134
17. Complement 3B. Bounds on Success Probabilities with No Knowledge of Counterfactual Outcomes 136
18. Complement 4A. Formalization of Reasonable Choice between Surveillance and Aggressive Treatment 138
19. Complement 5A. Treatment Choice as a Statistical Decision Problem 140
20. Complement 6A. Minimax-Regret Allocation of Patients to Two Treatments 144
21. Complement 6B. Derivations for Criteria to Treat X-Pox 146
22. References 149
23. Index 159