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An Analysis of Curling Strategy
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David Clement
Veröffentlicht/Copyright:
9. Oktober 2012
Abstract
This paper addresses two important strategic questions in the sport of curling, namely (i) when it is best to blank rather than take one point, and (ii) when entering the final end, is it preferable to be winning by one point without last rock advantage or be losing by one point with last rock advantage. A multinomial logistic regression for end score probabilities and a Markov model for game win probabilities are introduced to answer both of the questions of interest. An asymptotic sampling procedure is used for statistical inference. The paper also updates and expands the data used in the previously published empirical curling analyses to take account of an important rule change.
Published Online: 2012-10-9
©2012 Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co. KG, Berlin/Boston
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Artikel in diesem Heft
- Article
- Models for Third Down Conversion in the National Football League
- A Comparison of the Autocorrelation and Variance of NFL Team Strengths Over Time using a Bayesian State-Space Model
- The Sensitivity of College Football Rankings to Several Modeling Choices
- The Individual Factors of Successful Free Throw Shooting
- New Insights on the Tendency of NCAA Basketball Officials to Even Out Foul Calls
- Was There a Structural Break in Barry Bonds's Bat?
- Estimating Fielding Ability in Baseball Players Over Time
- Adjusted Plus-Minus for NHL Players using Ridge Regression with Goals, Shots, Fenwick, and Corsi
- An Analysis of Curling Strategy
