Home Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Fiscal Policy Shocks in China
Article
Licensed
Unlicensed Requires Authentication

Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Fiscal Policy Shocks in China

Published/Copyright: October 28, 2021
Become an author with De Gruyter Brill

Abstract

The central issues concerning fiscal policy makers include macroeconomic stability and growth stimulation. The policy decision process is facilitated by investigation on the effects of fiscal policy, such as a change in government spending or taxes on macroeconomic variables comprising inflation, aggregate output, and interest rates. Build on the Blanchard-Perotti identification approach, this paper empirically analyses the influence of fiscal policy to aggregate economic activities in China, and the estimated results are compared between China and the advanced economies. The findings demonstrate that the impulse responses incurred by tax shocks are generally stimulative, although government spending shocks tend to be neutral, revealing meaningful implications for the fiscal space and policy design.

JEL Classification: E62; H30

Corresponding author: Jia Ji, Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, Beijing, China, E-mail:

References

Baum, A., C. Checherita-Westphal, and P. Rother. 2013. “Debt and Growth: New Evidence from the Euro Area.” Journal of International Money and Finance 32: 809–21, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.07.004.Search in Google Scholar

Blanchard, O., and R. Perotti. 2002. “An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 117 (4): 1329–68, https://doi.org/10.1162/003355302320935043.Search in Google Scholar

Caldara, D., and C. Kamps. 2008. “What are the Effects of Fiscal Shocks? A VAR-Based Comparative Analysis.” Working Paper Series 877, European Central Bank.10.2139/ssrn.1102338Search in Google Scholar

Chen, S., and J. S. Kang. 2018. “Credit Booms – Is China Different?” IMF Working Paper No. 18/2.10.5089/9781484336762.001Search in Google Scholar

Claus, I., A. Gill, B. Lee, and N. McLellan. 2006. “An Empirical Investigation of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand.” New Zealand Treasury Working Paper.Search in Google Scholar

DeLong, J. B., and L. H. Summers. 2012. “Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 43 (1): 233–97, https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2012.0000.Search in Google Scholar

Fatas, A., and I. Mihov. 2001. “The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence.” CEPR discussion paper.Search in Google Scholar

Gaspar, V., M. Obstfeld, and R. Sahay. 2016. “Macroeconomic Management When Policy Space is Constrained: A Comprehensive, Consistent and Coordinated Approach to Economic Policy.” IMF Staff Discussion Note.10.5089/9781475537543.006Search in Google Scholar

Giordano, R., S. Momigliano, S. Neri, and R. Perotti. 2007. “The Effects of Fiscal Policy in Italy: Evidence from a VAR Model.” European Journal of Political Economy 23 (3): 707–33, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2006.10.005.Search in Google Scholar

Holston, K., T. Laubach, and J. C. William. 2016. “Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants.” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2016-11.10.17016/FEDS.2016.073Search in Google Scholar

IMF. 2010. Navigating the Fiscal Challenges Ahead. Washington: International Monetary Fund Fiscal Monitor.Search in Google Scholar

Jeong, M., J. Kang, and S. Kim. 2017. “Effects of Government Consumption Shocks in China, Japan, and Korea.” China Economic Journal 10: 94–225, https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2017.1321880.Search in Google Scholar

Li, M. 2012. The Effects of Elasticity on Government Revenue of China, 44. Lexington: University of Kentucky, MPA/MPP Capstone Projects.Search in Google Scholar

Li, R., and G. Ma. 2017. “Personal-Income-Tax Reforms and Effective-Tax Functions in China.” FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis 73 (3): 317–40, https://doi.org/10.1628/001522117x14932991128976.Search in Google Scholar

Lütkepohl, H. 2017. “Estimation of Structural Vector Autoregressive Models.” Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods 24: 421–41, https://doi.org/10.5351/csam.2017.24.5.421.Search in Google Scholar

Mountford, A., and H. Uhlig. 2009. “What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?” Journal of Applied Econometrics 24: 960–92, https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.1079.Search in Google Scholar

OECD. 2016. Interim Economic Outlook: Global Growth Warning: Weak Trade, Financial Distortions. Paris: OECD Publishing.Search in Google Scholar

Perotti, R. 2005. “Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries.” CEPR Discussion Paper No. 4842.10.2139/ssrn.637189Search in Google Scholar

Ricciuti, R. 2003. “Assessing Ricardian Equivalence.” Journal of Economic Surveys 17 (1): 57–78, https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-6419.00188.Search in Google Scholar

Shambaugh, J. C. 2012. “The Euro’s Three Crises.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 43 (1): 157–231, https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2012.0006.Search in Google Scholar

Summers, L. H. 2014. “U.S. Economic Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis, and the Zero Lower Bound.” Business Economics 49 (2): 65–73, https://doi.org/10.1057/be.2014.13.Search in Google Scholar

Wang, X., and Y. Wen. 2017. “Macroeconomic Effects of Government Spending in China.” Pacific Economic Review 24: 1–31, https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12242.Search in Google Scholar

Wingender, P. 2018. “Intergovernmental Fiscal Reform in China.” IMF Working Papers. 2018/088, International Monetary Fund.10.2139/ssrn.3182516Search in Google Scholar

Woo, J., and M. S. Kumar. 2015. “Public Debt and Growth.” Economica 82: 705–39, https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12138.Search in Google Scholar

Xu, C. 2011. “The Fundamental Institutions of China’s Reforms and Development.” Journal of Economic Literature 49 (4): 1076–151, https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.49.4.1076.Search in Google Scholar

Yu, W. 2009. “The Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Policy Effect on Regional Economy.” Statistics & Decisions 10: 147–8.Search in Google Scholar

Zhang, Y. S., and S. Barnett. 2014. “Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Risks from Local Government Finance in China.” IMF Working Paper 14/4.10.5089/9781484349953.001Search in Google Scholar

Received: 2021-06-19
Accepted: 2021-10-15
Published Online: 2021-10-28
Published in Print: 2021-12-20

© 2021 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

Downloaded on 8.11.2025 from https://www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi/10.1515/spp-2021-0013/html
Scroll to top button