Home The Stopping Power of Sources
Article
Licensed
Unlicensed Requires Authentication

The Stopping Power of Sources

Implied Causal Mechanisms and Historical Interpretations in (Mearsheimer’s) Arguments on the Russo-Ukrainian War
  • Jonas J. Driedger EMAIL logo
Published/Copyright: June 8, 2023
Become an author with De Gruyter Brill

Abstract

The article analyzes arguments, made by John J. Mearsheimer and others, that the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was largely caused by Western policy. It finds that these arguments rely on a partially false and incomplete reading of history. To do so, the article identifies a range of premises that are both foundational to Mearsheimer’s claims and based on implied or explicit historical interpretations. This includes the varying policies of Ukraine toward NATO and the EU as well as the changing Russian perceptions thereof; the political upheavals in Ukraine in early 2014 that were immediately succeeded by the annexation of Crimea and the war in Donbass; and the supposed absence of Russian ‘imperialism’ toward Ukraine prior to 2014. Finding that these interpretations do not hold up in light of relevant and available data, the article qualifies and contextualizes the validity of Mearsheimer’s arguments, points to superior ones, and highlights the need for case-specific expertise when using explanatory theory to make sense of politically salient ongoing events.


Corresponding author: Jonas J. Driedger, Peace Research Institute Frankfurt (PRIF/HSFK) and Regional Research Center ‘Transformations of Political Violence’ (TraCe), Frankfurt, Germany, E-mail:

References

Allison, R. 2014. “Russian ‘Deniable’ Intervention in Ukraine: How and Why Russia Broke the Rules.” International Affairs 90 (6): 1255–97. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2346.12170.Search in Google Scholar

BBC News . 2012. “Ukraine Election ‘Reversed Democracy’, OSCE Says.” October 29, 2012, sec. Europe. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-20120888.Search in Google Scholar

BBC News . 2014. “Ukraine Crisis: Transcript of Leaked Nuland-Pyatt Call.” February 7, 2014, sec. Europe. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957.Search in Google Scholar

Brzezinski, Z. 1994. “The Premature Partnership.” Foreign Affairs 73 (2): 67–82. https://doi.org/10.2307/20045920.Search in Google Scholar

Brzezinski, Z. 2000. “Living with Russia.” The National Interest 61: 5–16.Search in Google Scholar

Brzezinski, Z. 2009. “Opinion|NATO and World Security.” The New York Times, August 19, 2009, sec. Opinion. https://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/20/opinion/20iht-edbrzezinski.html.Search in Google Scholar

Brzezinski, Z. 2012. Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power. New York: Basic Books.Search in Google Scholar

Czuperski, M., J. Herbst, E. Higgins, A. Polyakova, and D. Wilson. 2015. Hiding in Plain Sight: Putin’s War in Ukraine. Washington, DC: Atlantic Council of the United States.Search in Google Scholar

Driedger, J. J. 2018. “Conflict Between Russia and its Neighbors Since 1992: The Cases of Belarus and Ukraine.” Uptake Working Papers, 10.Search in Google Scholar

Driedger, J. J. 2020. “Trump, Merkel, and Putin. Lessons and Legacies for Transatlantic Cooperation Toward Russia.” AICGS. American Institute for Contemporary German Studies. Johns Hopkins University (blog). December 23, 2020. https://www.aicgs.org/publication/trump-merkel-and-putin/.Search in Google Scholar

Driedger, J. J. 2021a. “Bilateral Defence and Security Cooperation Despite Disintegration: Does the Brexit Process Divide the United Kingdom and Germany on Russia?” European Journal of International Security 6 (1): 86–108. https://doi.org/10.1017/eis.2020.18.Search in Google Scholar

Driedger, J. J. 2021b. “Russian Active Measures against Ukraine (2004) and Estonia (2007).” In Russian Active Measures – Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow. Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society 224, edited by O. Bertelsen, 177–213. Stuttgart: Columbia University Press and Ibidem.Search in Google Scholar

Driedger, J. J. 2022a. “Did Germany Contribute to Deterrence Failure against Russia in Early 2022?” Central European Journal of International and Security Studies 16 (3): 152–71. https://doi.org/10.51870/tlxc9266.Search in Google Scholar

Driedger, J. J. 2022b. “Inertia and Reactiveness in Germany’s Russia Policy: From the 2021 Federal Election to the Invasion of Ukraine in 2022.” German Politics and Society 40 (4): 135–51. https://doi.org/10.3167/gps.2022.400407.Search in Google Scholar

Driedger, J. J. 2023a. “Realismus Als Theorie Und Heuristik: Die Ukrainisch-Russisch-Deutsche Dreiecksbeziehung Seit 1992.” Zeitschrift für Internationale Beziehungen 30 (1).10.5771/0946-7165-2023-1-85Search in Google Scholar

Driedger, J. J. 2023b. “Risk Acceptance and Offensive War: The Case of Russia Under the Putin Regime.” Contemporary Security Policy 44 (2): 199–225. https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2023.2164974.Search in Google Scholar

Edinger, H. 2022. “Offensive Ideas: Structural Realism, Classical Realism and Putin’s War on Ukraine.” International Affairs 98 (6): 1873–93. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiac217.Search in Google Scholar

Gallup.Com . 2014. “Ukrainians Approve of New President.” December 18, 2014, sec. World. https://news.gallup.com/poll/180233/ukrainians-approve-new-president.aspx.Search in Google Scholar

Giuliano, E. 2018. “Who Supported Separatism in Donbas? Ethnicity and Popular Opinion at the Start of the Ukraine Crisis.” Post-Soviet Affairs 34 (2–3): 158–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/1060586x.2018.1447769.Search in Google Scholar

Gleditsch, K. S. 2022. “One Without the Other? Prediction and Policy in International Studies.” International Studies Quarterly 66 (3): 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqac036.Search in Google Scholar

Götz, E. 2016. “Neorealism and Russia’s Ukraine Policy, 1991–Present.” Contemporary Politics 22 (3): 301–23. https://doi.org/10.1080/13569775.2016.1201312.Search in Google Scholar

Harding, L. 2014. “Kiev’s Protesters: Ukraine Uprising Was No Neo-Nazi Power-Grab.” The Guardian, March 13, 2014, sec. World News.Search in Google Scholar

Hosaka, S. 2019. “Welcome to Surkov’s Theater: Russian Political Technology in the Donbas War.” Nationalities Papers 47 (5): 750–73. https://doi.org/10.1017/nps.2019.70.Search in Google Scholar

Interfax-Ukraine. 2013. “Poll: Yanukovych to Lose to Opposition Candidates in Second Round of Presidential Elections.” Kyiv Post, December 25, 2013, sec. Ukraine. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/9324.Search in Google Scholar

Interfax-Ukraine. 2014. “Svoboda Party Members in Ukrainian Government Resign.” December 11, 2014.Search in Google Scholar

International Institute for Strategic Studies. 2006. The Military Balance 2006. London: Routledge.Search in Google Scholar

International Institute for Strategic Studies. 2012. The Military Balance 2012. London: Routledge.Search in Google Scholar

Likhachev, V. 2015. “The ‘Right Sector’ and Others: The Behavior and Role of Radical Nationalists in the Ukrainian Political Crisis of Late 2013 — Early 2014.” Communist and Post-Communist Studies 48 (2–3): 257–71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.postcomstud.2015.07.003.Search in Google Scholar

Lustick, I. S. 2022. “Geopolitical Forecasting and Actionable Intelligence.” Survival 64 (1): 51–6. https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2022.2032959.Search in Google Scholar

McFaul, M., S. Sestanovich, and J. J. Mearsheimer. 2014. “Faulty Powers: Who Started the Ukraine Crisis?” Foreign Affairs 93: 167–78.Search in Google Scholar

Mearsheimer, J. J. 1993. “The Case for a Ukrainian Nuclear Deterrent.” Foreign Affairs 72 (3): 50–66. https://doi.org/10.2307/20045622.Search in Google Scholar

Mearsheimer, J. J. 1994. “The False Promise of International Institutions.” International Security 19 (3): 5–49. https://doi.org/10.2307/2539078.Search in Google Scholar

Mearsheimer, J. J. 2001. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, 1st ed. New York: Norton.Search in Google Scholar

Mearsheimer, J. J. 2014. “Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West’s Fault: The Liberal Delusions that Provoked Putin.” Foreign Affairs 93: 1–12.Search in Google Scholar

Mearsheimer, J. J. 2018. Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities. New Haven: Yale University Press.10.2307/j.ctv5cgb1wSearch in Google Scholar

Mearsheimer, J. J. 2019. “Bound to Fail: The Rise and Fall of the Liberal International Order.” International Security 43 (4): 7–50. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00342.Search in Google Scholar

Mearsheimer, J. J. 2021. “The Inevitable Rivalry. America, China, and the Tragedy of Great-Power Politics.” Foreign Affairs.Search in Google Scholar

Mearsheimer, J. J. 2022a. “The Causes and Consequences of the Ukraine Crisis.” The National Interest.Search in Google Scholar

Mearsheimer, J. J. 2022b. “Playing with Fire in Ukraine. The Underappreciated Risks of Catastrophic Escalation.” Foreign Affairs.Search in Google Scholar

Mearsheimer, J. J., and S. M. Walt. 2003. “An Unnecessary War.” Foreign Policy.10.2307/3183521Search in Google Scholar

Mearsheimer, J. J., and S. M. Walt. 2007. The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy, 1st ed. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.10.2139/ssrn.891198Search in Google Scholar

Mearsheimer, J. J., and S. M. Walt. 2013. “Leaving Theory behind: Why Simplistic Hypothesis Testing Is Bad for International Relations.” European Journal of International Relations 19 (3): 427–57. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354066113494320.Search in Google Scholar

Mearsheimer, J. J., and S. M. Walt. 2016. “The Case for Offshore Balancing.” Foreign Affairs 95 (July/August): 70–83.Search in Google Scholar

Parent, J. M., and S. Rosato. 2015. “Balancing in Neorealism.” International Security 40 (2): 51–86. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00216.Search in Google Scholar

Radchenko, S. 2020. “‘Nothing but Humiliation for Russia’: Moscow and NATO’s Eastern Enlargement, 1993–1995.” Journal of Strategic Studies 43 (6–7): 1–47. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2020.1820331.Search in Google Scholar

Reuters . 2012a. “Strasbourg Court Raps Ukraine Over Tymoshenko Ally.” July 3, 2012, sec. World News. https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-france-ukraine-lutsenko-rights-idUKBRE8620PL20120703.Search in Google Scholar

Reuters . 2012b. “Ukraine High Court to Rule on Tymoshenko Appeal.” August 29, 2012, sec. World News. https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-ukraine-tymoshenko-appeal-idUKBRE87S00Q20120829.Search in Google Scholar

Reuters . 2012c. “Ukraine Votes, Yanukovich’s Party Expected to Keep Majority.” October 28, 2012. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-election-idUKBRE89Q0ED20121028.Search in Google Scholar

Reznik, O. 2016. “From the Orange Revolution to the Revolution of Dignity: Dynamics of the Protest Actions in Ukraine.” East European Politics & Societies 30 (4): 750–65. https://doi.org/10.1177/0888325416650255.Search in Google Scholar

Shekhovtsov, A., and A. Umland. 2014. “The Maidan and beyond: Ukraine’s Radical Right.” Journal of Democracy 25 (3): 58–63. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2014.0051.Search in Google Scholar

The Central Election Commission of Ukraine. 2018. “Головна.” August 28, 2018. https://cvk.gov.ua/.Search in Google Scholar

The Telegraph . 2014. “Ukraine’s Defence Chief Resigns as Troops Leave Crimea.” March 25, 2014. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10722676/Ukraines-defence-chief-resigns-as-troops-leave-Crimea.html.Search in Google Scholar

The University of Chicago, dir. Why Is Ukraine the West’s Fault? Featuring John Mearsheimer. 2015. YouTube.Search in Google Scholar

Vanderhill, R. 2013. Promoting Authoritarianism Abroad. Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers.10.1515/9781626370104Search in Google Scholar

Wæver, O. 2009. “Waltz’s Theory of Theory.” International Relations 23 (2): 201–22. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047117809104635.Search in Google Scholar

Walt, S. M. 1987. The Origins of Alliances. Cornell Studies in Security Affairs. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.Search in Google Scholar

Waltz, K. N. 1979. Theory of International Politics. Long Grove: Waveland Press.Search in Google Scholar

Wilson, A. 2011. Belarus: The Last Dictatorship in Europe. New Haven: Yale University Press.Search in Google Scholar

Wilson, A. 2017. “Explaining Ukraine.” In The Routledge Handbook of East European Politics. London: Routledge.10.4324/9781315687681-4Search in Google Scholar

Woronowycz, R. 2003. “Dispute Over Tuzla Changes Ukraine’s Stance Toward Russia.” The Ukrainian Weekly, November 2, 2003.Search in Google Scholar

Published Online: 2023-06-08
Published in Print: 2023-05-27

© 2023 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

Downloaded on 27.9.2025 from https://www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi/10.1515/auk-2023-2006/html
Scroll to top button