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The climate downturns in China caused by volcanic eruptions in 535–40 CE and by Thera (Santorini) at the founding of the Shang dynasty (1562 BCE)

  • David W. Pankenier ORCID logo EMAIL logo
Published/Copyright: April 25, 2023
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Asiatische Studien - Études Asiatiques
From the journal Asiatische Studien - Études Asiatiques Volume 76 Issue 4

Abstract

It is well known that ancient Chinese written records are an invaluable source of historical information on astronomy, technology, economy, and climate, dating back in some cases to the second millennium BCE. Numerous studies have established that the climatic consequences of the ejection of volcanic aerosols into the atmosphere can have a major impact on the climate worldwide. Here, the Chinese evidence of such a severe climatic anomaly during the decade of the 530s is first reviewed. A preponderance of the evidence from ice cores and tree rings worldwide points to more than one large volcanic eruption during the 530s, although which volcano was responsible has not yet been conclusively established. Even more severe than 1815, the “year without a summer,” due to the eruption of Tambora, in 536–537 summer frosts and snowfall occurred in China causing multi-year drought, crop failures, and catastrophic famine. Study of pre-imperial Chinese texts gives reason to believe that in mid-second millennium BCE a massive loading of the atmosphere with volcanic aerosols from the eruption of Thera (Santorini) may have been the cause of dramatic climatic downturn in the sixteenth century BCE. Dating of the events based on verifiable records of astronomical phenomena suggests that the long-remembered ancient calamity could have been caused by the eruption of Thera in the eastern Mediterranean. This benchmark date can be helpful in establishing a secure chronology of eastern Mediterranean kingdoms in the period.

Keywords: chronology; climate anomalies; Early China; Thera; volcanic eruptions; years without summer
Corresponding author: David W. Pankenier, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA, USA, E-mail:

Appendix: Mencius’ 孟子 statements on the early chronology

Mencius (390–305 BCE) was, of course, a dedicated follower of Confucius who lived a century later and came to be denoted the “Second Sage.” In the eponymous text Mengzi, 孟子 he is quoted as having made several generalizations regarding the chronology of the Three Dynasties of the Chinese Bronze Age. In the past, these remarks have occasioned debate about their usefulness in pinning down the founding dates of Shang and Zhou in particular. Mencius’ statements are as follows:

  1. “It is a rule that a true royal sovereign should arise in the course of five-hundred years, and that during that time there should be men illustrious in their generation.” (Mengzi, 2B, 22).

  2. “From Yao and Shun down to T’ang there were 500 years and then some (wu bai you yu 五百有餘). As to Yu and Gao Yao [of the Xia], they saw those earliest sages and so knew their doctrines, while Tang heard their doctrines as transmitted and so knew them.” (Mengzi, 7B, 84).

  3. “From Tang to King Wen [Zhou founder] there were 500 years and then some. As to Yi Yin and Lai Chu, they saw Tang and knew his doctrines, while King Wen heard them as transmitted and so knew them.” (Mengzi. 7B, 84).

  4. “From King Wen to Confucius were 500 years and then some. As to Taigong Wang and San Yishang [of Zhou], they saw Wen and so knew his doctrines, while Confucius heard them as transmitted and so knew them.” (Mengzi. 7B, 84).

  5. “From Confucius down to our own day there have been 100 years and then some.” (Mengzi, 7B, 84).

  6. “From the beginning of the Zhou dynasty until now there have been 700 years and then some. Numerically speaking, the time [for the appearance of a true sovereign] is past.” (Mengzi, 2B, 22).

The debate about the chronological usefulness of the statements hinges of course on the imprecise expression “and then some” that Mencius repeatedly used. Ordinarily, you yu 有餘, which I translate here as “and then some” is generally understood to mean “slightly more than.” In the past, because of the uncertainty about the dating of the Zhou conquest of Shang ranging from 1122 to 1027 BCE, a reliable assessment of the veracity of Mencius’ statements remained elusive. Consequently, the estimates of the numerical value of you yu ranged between a handful of years to more than fifty.[33]

John Knoblock cites Joseph Needham and others who have argued in favor of the conventional understanding of you yu as “a little more than.” But an influential analysis by Chen Mengjia 陳夢家 settled on the inflated value of “not less than fifty.”[34] Until recently, these figures had to be considered speculative because of the uncertainty about the date of the Zhou conquest of Shang, now securely dated to 1046 BCE. With the addition of a more secure date for the founding of the Shang dynasty in 1562, it is now possible to assess the validity of Mencius’ assertions more reliably. Testing each of the chronological statements in turn remains slightly imprecise, since when Mencius refers to the sages of the past, we still don’t know whether he means dates of birth, death, or active years. But as we shall see, this proves not to be a significant problem.

In statement (6), Mencius claims that just over seven hundred years had elapsed from the beginning of Zhou to his own day. If this statement had been made in about 311 BCE on his second visit to Qi, as has been argued, then from the founding of Zhou in 1046 this makes 735 years. But in 311 BCE Mencius would have been 79 years old, which makes it seem improbable that he was still making such journeys. If, on the other hand, the statement were attributed to Mencius’ active years, say between fifty and sixty, “seven hundred and then some” would suggest a span of about 710 years.

In statement (5), Mencius says that Confucius lived more than one hundred years before “our own day.” If one assumes that the statement is authentic and made in middle-age about 40–50, and if one further assumes that Mencius is referring to the date of Confucius’ death in 479, “one hundred and then some” would suggest about 139 years.

In statement (4), Mencius says from King Wen (1099–1050 BCE) to Confucius (551–479 BCE) was just over 500 years. Assuming that he is referring to the span from King Wen’s death ca. 1050 BCE, shortly after the Mandate planetary portent, to Confucius’ birth, “and then some” would mean about seven years (1050 − 551 = 499). If he was referring to King Wen’s declaration of his receipt of the Mandate, the figure would be 507 years.

In statement (3), Mencius asserts that from Cheng Tang to King Wen once again the period of the appearance of a sage ruler was just over 500 years. Given the dating of the founding of Shang to 1562 BCE (and 1557 for Tang’s death), “and then some” would mean seven years if referring to the two ruler’s death dates (1050 for King Wen), or about sixteen years if he is referring to the founding of the two dynasties (1562–1046 = 516).

In statement (2), Mencius says that from Yao and Shun who ruled before the Xia dynasty down to Cheng Tang was again just over 500 years. Here, the very remote dates of Yao and Shun from whom rulership devolved on Yu are very uncertain, and it is not even known whether the pair are truly historical figures. Nevertheless, 1562 + 500 = 2062. If the founding of Xia is tentatively set at about 1953 BCE, the date of the extraordinary planetary conjunction and Yu’s receipt of the Mandate of Heaven, then the result would be 1953 − 1562 = 392 years. Allowing for the reigns of Yao and Shun prior to that, this would suggest a total of some 109 years for the two rulers, rather high for two reigns in the twentieth-first century BCE. However, a date of 1562 + 500 = 2062 BCE is consistent with the archaeological dating of the severe climatic late-Neolithic downturn followed by the flood disaster, leading to the subsequent gradual recovery and establishment of Erlitou during the following century or so.

Excluding statements two and five as the most uncertain, the controversies surrounding the Xia “dynasty’s” founding, and whether Erlitou was the Xia “dynastic” capital, we are left with results for “and then some” of one to three decades at most, which is not unreasonable.

Bernhard Karlgren noted that Mencius “was exceedingly well versed in the lore of the early Chou” and “no Chou-time writer has dwelt so often and so enthusiastically upon the early history of the Royal House as he,” so that Mencius’ grasp of the chronology ought to have been reliable.[35] Mencius’ assertion that a sage ruler must appear every 500 years strongly suggests that he was familiar with the historical record since his dating of the span from Shang to Zhou and Zhou to Confucius are on the mark. Considering that Mencius is talking about historical events more than a millennium before his own lifetime this is impressive. In the end, our conclusion is that Mencius’ statements are well informed and agree with the dating of the Shang founding to 1562 and Zhou to 1046. The expression you yu “and a little more” ought reasonably to refer to not more than about three decades, consistent with the conventional understanding of the term.

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Received: 2022-12-07
Accepted: 2023-02-05
Published Online: 2023-04-25
Published in Print: 2022-11-25

© 2023 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

Articles in the same Issue

  1. Frontmatter
  2. Research Articles
  3. Some notes on the meaning of min 民 (and zhong 眾) in the Tsinghua manuscript *Yin gao 尹誥 (The Announcement of Yin)
  4. How to kill a sage: North Korean discourse on Jizi/Kija 箕子
  5. Female migrant workers’ theater, labor NGOs, and grassroots culture in China: variations on the theme of “home”
  6. 冤 Yuan! Conceptual metaphors for INJUSTICE in Chinese
  7. The climate downturns in China caused by volcanic eruptions in 535–40 CE and by Thera (Santorini) at the founding of the Shang dynasty (1562 BCE)
  8. On the history of madder (Rubia peregrina L., and Rubia tinctorum L.) in pre-modern Iran and the Caucasus
  9. Des Herrschers neue Kleider. Rekonzeption des zhǔ 主 bzw. jūn 君 und seiner Herrschaft im klassischen und Neuen chinesischen Legalismus
  10. Le maḏhab ḥanafite d’Ifrīqiya (IIe–IVe/VIIIe–Xe siècle) : Asad b. al-Furāt (m. 213/828) et la transmission du Kitāb al-aṣl d’al-Šaybānī (m. 189/805)
  11. Pahlavi tōšn (tušn) in Denkard VII
  12. Accepting reality: re-opening Manchuria to Chinese commoners (minren) in the Yongzheng era
  13. Book Review
  14. Boissière, Thierry, et Morvan, Yoann (éds): Un Moyen-Orient ordinaire. Entre consommations et mobilités. Marseille: Diacritiques Editions, 2022, 276 pp., ISBN 979-1-097-09316-7
https://doi.org/10.1515/asia-2022-0042
Keywords for this article
chronology; climate anomalies; Early China; Thera; volcanic eruptions; years without summer

Articles in the same Issue

  1. Frontmatter
  2. Research Articles
  3. Some notes on the meaning of min 民 (and zhong 眾) in the Tsinghua manuscript *Yin gao 尹誥 (The Announcement of Yin)
  4. How to kill a sage: North Korean discourse on Jizi/Kija 箕子
  5. Female migrant workers’ theater, labor NGOs, and grassroots culture in China: variations on the theme of “home”
  6. 冤 Yuan! Conceptual metaphors for INJUSTICE in Chinese
  7. The climate downturns in China caused by volcanic eruptions in 535–40 CE and by Thera (Santorini) at the founding of the Shang dynasty (1562 BCE)
  8. On the history of madder (Rubia peregrina L., and Rubia tinctorum L.) in pre-modern Iran and the Caucasus
  9. Des Herrschers neue Kleider. Rekonzeption des zhǔ 主 bzw. jūn 君 und seiner Herrschaft im klassischen und Neuen chinesischen Legalismus
  10. Le maḏhab ḥanafite d’Ifrīqiya (IIe–IVe/VIIIe–Xe siècle) : Asad b. al-Furāt (m. 213/828) et la transmission du Kitāb al-aṣl d’al-Šaybānī (m. 189/805)
  11. Pahlavi tōšn (tušn) in Denkard VII
  12. Accepting reality: re-opening Manchuria to Chinese commoners (minren) in the Yongzheng era
  13. Book Review
  14. Boissière, Thierry, et Morvan, Yoann (éds): Un Moyen-Orient ordinaire. Entre consommations et mobilités. Marseille: Diacritiques Editions, 2022, 276 pp., ISBN 979-1-097-09316-7
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