CHAPTER 5. Contemplating Counterfactuals: Foxes Are More Willing than Hedgehogs to Entertain Self- subversive Scenarios

Philip E. Tetlock

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CHAPTER 5. Contemplating Counterfactuals

Foxes Are More Willing than Hedgehogs to Entertain Self- subversive Scenarios

Philip E. Tetlock

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Tetlock, Philip E.. "CHAPTER 5. Contemplating Counterfactuals: Foxes Are More Willing than Hedgehogs to Entertain Self- subversive Scenarios". Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2017, pp. 144-163. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400888818-008

Tetlock, P. (2017). CHAPTER 5. Contemplating Counterfactuals: Foxes Are More Willing than Hedgehogs to Entertain Self- subversive Scenarios. In Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (pp. 144-163). Princeton: Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400888818-008

Tetlock, P. 2017. CHAPTER 5. Contemplating Counterfactuals: Foxes Are More Willing than Hedgehogs to Entertain Self- subversive Scenarios. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?. Princeton: Princeton University Press, pp. 144-163. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400888818-008

Tetlock, Philip E.. "CHAPTER 5. Contemplating Counterfactuals: Foxes Are More Willing than Hedgehogs to Entertain Self- subversive Scenarios" In Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, 144-163. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400888818-008

Tetlock P. CHAPTER 5. Contemplating Counterfactuals: Foxes Are More Willing than Hedgehogs to Entertain Self- subversive Scenarios. In: Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?. Princeton: Princeton University Press; 2017. p.144-163. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400888818-008

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Chapters in this book

Frontmatter i
Contents vii
Acknowledgments ix
Preface xi
Preface to the 2017 Edition xvii
CHAPTER 1. Quantifying the Unquantifiable 1
CHAPTER 2. The Ego-deflating Challenge of Radical Skepticism 25
CHAPTER 3. Knowing the Limits of One’s Knowledge 67
CHAPTER 4. Honoring Reputational Bets 121
CHAPTER 5. Contemplating Counterfactuals 144
CHAPTER 6. The Hedgehogs Strike Back 164
CHAPTER 7. Are We Open-minded Enough to Acknowledge the Limits of Open-mindedness? 189
CHAPTER 8. Exploring the Limits on Objectivity and Accountability 216
Methodological Appendix 239
Technical Appendix 273
Index 313

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https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400888818-008

Chapters in this book

Frontmatter i
Contents vii
Acknowledgments ix
Preface xi
Preface to the 2017 Edition xvii
CHAPTER 1. Quantifying the Unquantifiable 1
CHAPTER 2. The Ego-deflating Challenge of Radical Skepticism 25
CHAPTER 3. Knowing the Limits of One’s Knowledge 67
CHAPTER 4. Honoring Reputational Bets 121
CHAPTER 5. Contemplating Counterfactuals 144
CHAPTER 6. The Hedgehogs Strike Back 164
CHAPTER 7. Are We Open-minded Enough to Acknowledge the Limits of Open-mindedness? 189
CHAPTER 8. Exploring the Limits on Objectivity and Accountability 216
Methodological Appendix 239
Technical Appendix 273
Index 313

CHAPTER 5. Contemplating Counterfactuals

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Chapters in this book

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