CHAPTER 4. Honoring Reputational Bets: Foxes Are Better Bayesians than Hedgehogs

Philip E. Tetlock

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CHAPTER 4. Honoring Reputational Bets

Foxes Are Better Bayesians than Hedgehogs

Philip E. Tetlock

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Tetlock, Philip E.. "CHAPTER 4. Honoring Reputational Bets: Foxes Are Better Bayesians than Hedgehogs". Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2017, pp. 121-143. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400888818-007

Tetlock, P. (2017). CHAPTER 4. Honoring Reputational Bets: Foxes Are Better Bayesians than Hedgehogs. In Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (pp. 121-143). Princeton: Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400888818-007

Tetlock, P. 2017. CHAPTER 4. Honoring Reputational Bets: Foxes Are Better Bayesians than Hedgehogs. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?. Princeton: Princeton University Press, pp. 121-143. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400888818-007

Tetlock, Philip E.. "CHAPTER 4. Honoring Reputational Bets: Foxes Are Better Bayesians than Hedgehogs" In Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, 121-143. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400888818-007

Tetlock P. CHAPTER 4. Honoring Reputational Bets: Foxes Are Better Bayesians than Hedgehogs. In: Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?. Princeton: Princeton University Press; 2017. p.121-143. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400888818-007

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Chapters in this book

Frontmatter i
Contents vii
Acknowledgments ix
Preface xi
Preface to the 2017 Edition xvii
CHAPTER 1. Quantifying the Unquantifiable 1
CHAPTER 2. The Ego-deflating Challenge of Radical Skepticism 25
CHAPTER 3. Knowing the Limits of One’s Knowledge 67
CHAPTER 4. Honoring Reputational Bets 121
CHAPTER 5. Contemplating Counterfactuals 144
CHAPTER 6. The Hedgehogs Strike Back 164
CHAPTER 7. Are We Open-minded Enough to Acknowledge the Limits of Open-mindedness? 189
CHAPTER 8. Exploring the Limits on Objectivity and Accountability 216
Methodological Appendix 239
Technical Appendix 273
Index 313

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https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400888818-007

Chapters in this book

Frontmatter i
Contents vii
Acknowledgments ix
Preface xi
Preface to the 2017 Edition xvii
CHAPTER 1. Quantifying the Unquantifiable 1
CHAPTER 2. The Ego-deflating Challenge of Radical Skepticism 25
CHAPTER 3. Knowing the Limits of One’s Knowledge 67
CHAPTER 4. Honoring Reputational Bets 121
CHAPTER 5. Contemplating Counterfactuals 144
CHAPTER 6. The Hedgehogs Strike Back 164
CHAPTER 7. Are We Open-minded Enough to Acknowledge the Limits of Open-mindedness? 189
CHAPTER 8. Exploring the Limits on Objectivity and Accountability 216
Methodological Appendix 239
Technical Appendix 273
Index 313

CHAPTER 4. Honoring Reputational Bets

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Chapters in this book

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