Volume 19, Issue 1

This paper develops an efficient method to compute higher-order perturbation approximations of bond prices. At third order, our approach can significantly shorten the approximation process and its precision exceeds the log-normal method and a procedure using consol bonds. The efficiency gains greatly facilitate any estimation which is illustrated by considering a long-run risk model for the US. Allowing for an unconstrained intertemporal elasticity of substitution enhances the model’s fit, and we see further improvements when incorporating stochastic volatility and external habits.

We develop methods for Bayesian inference in vector error correction models which are subject to a variety of switches in regime (e.g., Markov switches in regime or structural breaks). An important aspect of our approach is that we allow both the cointegrating vectors and the number of cointegrating relationships to change when the regime changes. We show how Bayesian model averaging or model selection methods can be used to deal with the high-dimensional model space that results. Our methods are used in an empirical study of the Fisher effect.

This paper suggests a new empirical methodology of testing the predictions of the term spread between long and short-term interest rates about future changes of the former allowing for term premium effects, according to the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure. To capture the effects of a time-varying term premium on the term spread, the paper relies on an empirically attractive affine Gaussian dynamic term structure model which assumes that the term structure of interest rates is spanned by three unobserved state variables. To retrieve accurate values of these variables from interest rates series, the paper suggests a new method which can overcome the effects of measurement (or pricing) errors inherent in these series on the estimates of the model. This method is assessed by a Monte Carlo study. Ignoring these errors will lead to biased estimates of term structure models. The empirical results of the paper provide support for the suggested term structure model. They show that this model can efficiently capture the time-varying term premium effects embodied in long-term interest rates, which can explain the failures of term spread to forecast future changes in long-term rates.

This paper proposes a factor instrumental variable quantile regression (FIVQR) estimator and studies its asymptotic properties. The proposed estimators share with quantile regression the advantage of exploring the shape of the conditional distribution of the dependent variable. When there are a factor structure and co-movement for economic variables, the underlying unobservable factors (or common components) are more efficient instruments. The proposed estimators achieve the optimality in the following sense: The method of principal component consistently estimates the space spanned by the ideal instruments which are utilized to control the endogeneity in the quantile regression analysis. Analyzing the asymptotic properties of the estimator, we assume that a panel of observable instruments follows a factor structure and the endogenous variables also share the same unobservable factors. Using the estimated factors as instruments, we show that the FIVQR estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal. Furthermore, when compared in the GMM framework, the proposed estimator is more efficient than the GMM estimator using many observable instruments directly. Monte Carlo studies demonstrate that the proposed estimators perform well. For an empirical application, we use a firm-level panel data set consisting of trading volumes and returns on DJIA to explore the asymmetric return–volume relation, controlling the endogeneity problem with the estimated factor instruments.

The correlation structure of financial assets is a key input with regard to portfolio and risk management. In this paper, we propose a non-parametric estimation method for the time-varying copula parameter. This is achieved in two steps: first, displaying the marginal distributions of financial asset returns by applying the empirical distribution function; second, by implementing the local likelihood method to estimate the copula parameters. The method for obtaining the optimal bandwidth through a maximum pseudo likelihood function and a statistical test on whether the copula parameter is time-varying are also introduced. A simulation study is conducted to show that our method is superior to its contender. Finally, we verify the proposed estimation methodology and time-varying statistical test by analysing the dynamic linkages between the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong stock markets.