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Factor instrumental variable quantile regression

  • Jau-er Chen EMAIL logo
Published/Copyright: April 10, 2014

Abstract

This paper proposes a factor instrumental variable quantile regression (FIVQR) estimator and studies its asymptotic properties. The proposed estimators share with quantile regression the advantage of exploring the shape of the conditional distribution of the dependent variable. When there are a factor structure and co-movement for economic variables, the underlying unobservable factors (or common components) are more efficient instruments. The proposed estimators achieve the optimality in the following sense: The method of principal component consistently estimates the space spanned by the ideal instruments which are utilized to control the endogeneity in the quantile regression analysis. Analyzing the asymptotic properties of the estimator, we assume that a panel of observable instruments follows a factor structure and the endogenous variables also share the same unobservable factors. Using the estimated factors as instruments, we show that the FIVQR estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal. Furthermore, when compared in the GMM framework, the proposed estimator is more efficient than the GMM estimator using many observable instruments directly. Monte Carlo studies demonstrate that the proposed estimators perform well. For an empirical application, we use a firm-level panel data set consisting of trading volumes and returns on DJIA to explore the asymmetric return–volume relation, controlling the endogeneity problem with the estimated factor instruments.

JEL: C12; C13; C21; C33; G12

Corresponding author: Jau-er Chen, Department of Economics, National Taiwan University, 21 Hsu-Chow Road, Taipei 100, Taiwan, e-mail:

Acknowledgments

This is a revised version of a part of the first chapter of my doctoral dissertation submitted to NYU. I would like to thank an anonymous referee for constructive and helpful comments. I am grateful to Heather Anderson, Jushan Bai, Christian Hansen, Konrad Menzel, Ryo Okui, Jörg Stoye, and Yi Xu for valuable discussions and suggestions. I thank Stefania D′Amico and Alexei Onatski for comments and Ronald Gallant for a useful conversation about implementing MCMC. This paper has benefited from presentations at the NYU Econometrics Seminar, NYU Applied Methodology Reading Group, EconCon at Princeton University, Kyoto University, National Taiwan University, Academia Sinica, Taiwan Econometric Society Annual Meeting, The Econometric Society North American Summer Meeting at Northwestern University, Macroeconometric Modelling Workshop at Academia Sinica, and Econometrics Society Australasian Meeting. Part of the research was supported by the National Science Council of Taiwan (NSC101-2410-H-002-002-MY2). Remaining errors of any kind, of course, are mine.

Appendix

Proof of Theorem 2. For simplicity, we assume W is known, replace F˜ with the unobservable F, and consider a model with endogenous regressors only. It can be shown that the same result holds with W being estimated and using the estimated factor, F˜, as instruments. Let yt=dtα(ψ)+εt, φ(ψ)=ψI(yDα(ψ)), a 1 vector, g^(θ(ψ),F)=(1/T)t=1T(ψI(εt(ψ)<0))Ft=(1/T)Fφ(ψ) containing r moment restrictions, g^(θ(ψ),Z)=(1/T)t=1T(ψI(εt(ψ)<0))zt=(1/T)Zφ(ψ) containing N moment restrictions,

W(ψ,Z)=E[ztzt(ψI(εt(ψ)<0))2]=ψ(1ψ)E[ztzt]=ψ(1ψ)E[(λiFt+eit)(λiFt+eit)]=ψ(1ψ)[ΛFFTΛ+E],

where E:=ee′ is assumed to be diagonal for ease of analysis, and finally denote

W(ψ,F)=ψ(1ψ)FFT.

For the time being, letting N be a fixed number and under Assumptions F and G, we have,

T(θ^gmm,Z(ψ)θ0(ψ))d𝒩(0,Ωgmm,Z(ψ)),

and

T(θ^gmm,F(ψ)θ0(ψ))d𝒩(0,Ωgmm,F(ψ)),

where

Ωgmm,Z(ψ)=plim(f2(0)DZTW(ψ,Z)1ZDT)1

and

Ωgmm,F(ψ)=plim(f2(0)DFTW(ψ,F)1FDT)1.

We first show that Ωgmm, Z=Ωgmm, F if N/T→0. From Z=FΛ′+e with e=(e1, e2, …, eT), we can write

DZTW(ψ,Z)1ZDT=DFTΛW(ψ,Z)1ΛFDT+DeTW(ψ,Z)1eDT+DFTΛW(ψ,Z)1eDT+DeTW(ψ,Z)1ΛFDT=:w1+w2+w3+w4.

We will show that the first term has a limit that is the inverse of Ωgmm, F. Using the fact that

W(ψ,Z)1=1ψ(1ψ)[E1E1Λ[(FFT)1+ΛE1Λ]1ΛE1],

and the result in Bai and Ng (2010, Appendix II), we can show that

ΛW(ψ,Z)1Λ=1ψ(1ψ)[(FFT)1+(ΛE1Λ)1]1=1ψ(1ψ)(FFT)1+O(1N),

since Λ′E–1Λ=O(N). It is straightforward to verify, also by using the results in Bai and Ng (2010, Appendix II), that the sum of the last three terms is negligible in the sense that

w2+w3+w4=[OP(NT)+OP(1T)]+OP(1NT)+OP(1NT).

as N/T→0. Thus, if N/T→0,

Ωgmm,Z(ψ)1=plim(f2(0)DZTW(ψ,Z)1ZDT)1=f2(0)DFT[1ψ(1ψ)(FFT)1+O(1N)]FDT+oP(1)=f2(0)DFTW(ψ,F)1FDT+oP(1)=Ωgmm,F(ψ)1.

we next show that θ^gmm,Z(ψ) is inconsistent if N/Tc>0. By stochastic equicontinuity,

θ^gmm,Z(ψ)θ0(ψ)=(f2(0)DZTW(ψ,Z)1ZDT)1f(0)DZTW(ψ,Z)1g^(θ0(ψ),Z)

It was shown that f2(0)(1/T)DZW(ψ,Z)1(1/T)ZDPΩgmm,Z(ψ)1 if N/Tc=0. If c>0 but is bounded, its limit becomes Ωgmm, Z(ψ)–1+Ξ, where Ξ is the limit of (1/T)D′eW(ψ, Z)–1(1/T)e′D which is OIP(N/T). Now we will show that f(0)(1/T)DZW(ψ,Z)1g^(θ0(ψ),Z)=OP(N/T). Using Z=FΛ+e,

f(0)DZTW(ψ,Z)1g^(θ0(ψ),Z)=f(0)DZTW(ψ,Z)11TZφ(ψ)=f(0)DFTΛW(ψ,Z)1ΛFφ(ψ)T+f(0)DeTW(ψ,Z)1eφ(ψ)T+f(0)DFTΛW(ψ,Z)1eφ(ψ)T+f(0)DeTW(ψ,Z)1ΛFφ(ψ)T=:I1+I2+I3+I4.

From Assumption F, Λ′W(ψ, Z)–1Λ→[ψ(1–ψ)]–1[(1/T)F′F]–1, and (1/T)Fφ(ψ)d𝒩(0,plimψ(1ψ)(1/T)FF), we have

TI1d𝒩(0,plimf2(0)DFT1ψ(1ψ)(FFT)1FDT)=𝒩(0,Ωgmm,F(ψ)1).

It can be shown that

I2=f(0)XeTE1eφ(ψ)TOP(1T)

and

f(0)DeTE1eφ(ψ)T=f(0)NT1Ni=1N[(1Tt=1T1σi,edteit)(1Tt=1T1σi,eφt(ψ)eit)]=f(0)NT(1Ni=1Nξ(d)iξ(ε)i),

where ξ(d)i:=(1/T)t=1T(1/σi,e)dteit and ξ(ε)i:=(1/T)t=1T(1/σi,e)φt(ψ)eit. Note that E[ξ(d)iξ(ε)i]0 due to endogeneity. Let γ=(1/N)i=1NE[ξ(d)iξ(ε)i] and thus E[I2]=f(0)(N/T)γ, i.e., I2=OI P(N/T). Again, using the results in Bai and Ng (2010, Appendix II), we can verify that I3=OP(1/NT) and I4=OP(1/(TN)). Therefore

θ^gmm,Z(ψ)θ0(ψ)=(f2(0)DZTW(ψ,Z)1ZDT)1[I1+f(0)NT(1Ni=1Nξ(d)iξ(ε)i)+OP(1T)+OP(1NT)].

Assume (1/N)i=1N(ξ(d)iξ(ε)iγ)=OP(1), where γ=E[ξ(d)iξ(ε)u] and then θ^gmm,Z(ψ)θ0(ψ)=OP(N/T). From the results above,

θ^gmm,Z(ψ)θ0(ψ)=(f2(0)DZTW(ψ,Z)1ZDT)1[I1+f(0)NT(1N(Nγ+OP(1)))+OP(1T)+OP(1NT)],

and then

θ^gmm,Z(ψ)θ0(ψ)NTb=(f2(0)DZTW(ψ,Z)1ZDT)1[I1+OP(NT)+OP(1T)+OP(1NT)],

where

b:=(f2(0)DZTW(ψ,Z)1ZDT)1f(0)γ.

Recall that TI1d𝒩(0,Ωgmm,F(ψ)1) and f2(0)(1/T)D′ZW(ψ, Z)–1(1/T)Z′D→Ωgmm, F(ψ)–1 provided that N/T→0; thus

T(θ^gmm,Z(ψ)θ0(ψ)NTb)=(f2(0)DZTW(ψ,Z)1ZDT)1TI1+oP(1),

which implies that

T(θ^gmm,Z(ψ)θ0(ψ)NTb)d𝒩(0,Ωgmm,F(ψ)).   □

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Supplemental Material

The online version of this article (DOI: 10.1515/snde-2013-0014) offers supplementary material, available to authorized users.


Published Online: 2014-4-10
Published in Print: 2015-2-1

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