Volume 7, Issue 1

Non-traditional source countries of FDI play an increasingly important role, notably in developing host countries. This raises the question of whether the location choices differ systematically between traditional and non-traditional source countries. We perform Logit and Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood estimations to assess the determinants of bilateral FDI flows. We find that economic geography variables are more relevant for FDI from nontraditional sources. The risk aversion of non-traditional investors is not consistently weaker than that of traditional investors. Resource abundance and superior technology in the host countries represent minor pull factors of FDI from non-traditional sources.

The authors re-examine the return-volatility relationship and its dynamics under a new vector autoregression (VAR) identification framework. By analyzing two model-free impliedvolatility indices – the well-established VIX (in the United States) and the recently published VKOSPI (in Korea) – and their stock market indices, the authors find an asymmetric volatility phenomenon in both the developed and emerging markets. However, the VKOSPI shows impulse response dynamics that are quite different from those of the VIX. This finding can be attributed to the unique characteristics of the KOSPI200 options market, which determine the dynamics of the VKOSPI.

Traditionally, observed fluctuations in aggregate economic time series have been mainly modeled as being the result of exogenous disturbances. A better understanding of macroeconomic phenomena, however, surely requires looking directly at the relations between variables that may trigger endogenous nonlinearities. Several attempts to justify endogenous business cycles have appeared in the literature in the last few years, involving many types of different settings. This paper intends to contribute to such literature by investigating how we can modify the well-known information stickiness macro model, through the introduction of a couple of reasonable new assumptions, in order to trigger the emergence of endogenous fluctuations.

This paper uses comprehensive high-quality panel data from official statistics for exporting enterprises to investigate the micro-structure of the recent export collapse in manufacturing industries in Germany during the crisis of 2008/2009. Almost all of the decline in exports was due to negative changes of exports in firms that continue to export (i.e. at the so-called intensive margin) while the decrease of exports due to export stoppers (at the so-called extensive margin) was tiny. It is shown that idiosyncratic shocks to very large firms played a decisive role in shaping the export collapse.

A digressive tax such as a variable rate sales tax or a tax on price gives firms an incentive for expanding output. Thus, unlike unit and ad valorem taxes which amplify the harm from monopoly, a digressive tax lessens the harm. We analyse a tax on price with respect to efficiency and practical policy appeal. In particular, we show how tax reforms based only on observation of price and quantity can make use of a tax on price in order to improve welfare. That is, it is practical to use a tax on price. The argument extends to fixed-number homogenous oligopoly.

The public debt stock in some economically developed countries continues to increase because of a lack of tax revenues and the concomitant burdens of social security. Many of those countries suffer from lower birth rates and consequently, have fewer children. Child allowances might be an effective way to increase fertility, leading to higher future tax revenues through an increase in the number of younger people. In this paper, the authors examine whether or not child allowances reduce the public debt stock as a share of GDP in an economy with a pension system. As long as a non-negative debt policy is adopted in the long run, child allowances financed by bonds always increase the public debt stock as a share of GDP.

This paper provides compelling evidence that equity market liberalization, as the most efficient way to smooth financial market frictions such as credit constraints, can alleviate persistent cross-dynastic income inequality by promoting increased human capital accumulation. The authors examine the effect of equity market liberalization on inequality by using data from 72 countries for 1980–2006. Their measured effect is robust to alternative measures of equity market liberalization. Finally, The authors show that foreign equity flows benefit initially lessactive stock markets more than the active ones, providing evidence that foreign equity flows act as a substitute for domestic financial markets. This finding emphasizes the possibility of reducing inequality and poverty through equity market liberalization.

This paper aims to assess the relationship among fiscal variables (government revenue and expenditure) in Sub-Saharan African countries. Using yearly data for the period between 1980 and 2011 in fifteen ECOWAS countries, a weak long-run relationship between government expenditure and revenue emerge, but only in the case of WAMZ countries. Granger causality analysis show mixed results for WAEMU countries, while for four out of six WAMZ countries (Gambia, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone) the “tax-and-spend” hypothesis holds, since government revenue would drive the expenditure.

This paper examines changes in the balance sheets of the banking system in five East Asian economies which were affected by the 1997 Asian Crisis. These countries have persistently accumulated international reserves since the crisis. This paper estimates the impact of reserve accumulation on some important balance sheet variables such as liquid assets, credit and deposits of the banking system by applying panel data techniques. Estimates using data from Thailand, South Korea, Malaysia, Philippines and Indonesia show that there has been robust positive impact of reserve accumulation on the liquid assets and deposits of the banking system after controlling for the effect of other potential variables.

In this paper we study income polarization by first comparing the efficiency of two statistical models to identify the number of poles in the income distribution empirically. The statistical models used are a multi-resolution analysis (MRA) and a log-normal approach (LNA). We then apply the methodology to Israeli income data over the years 1997−2008 in order to empirically detect the number of income classes as sub-populations of incomes concentrated around an optimally determined number of poles. After that we compute polarization using a multiplicative normalized polarization measure, developed by Palacios-González and García- Fernández (An Intra-Group Variance Based Polarization Measure, 2010), which consists of three interacting components based on well-known axioms of Esteban and Ray (Extensions of a Measure of Polarization OCDE Countries, 1994). Finally we study the causes of the obtained polarization results in a multinomial logit analysis.

Theoretical models point at various channels of the impact of inflation on corporate investment. This article attempts to answer the question what the direction and strength of this possible impact is, examining the relationship between corporate investment and inflation on the sample of 21 OECD countries in the years 1960–2005. The obtained negative relationship, statistically and economically significant, proves robust to changes in the specification of the estimated equation, estimators, frequency of variables used in the study and analysed period. Moreover, the obtained results suggest a nonlinear character of this relationship: the marginal effect on corporate investment is higher at inflation rates between 3 and 5.5 per cent. These results suggest that the impact of inflation on corporate investment dynamics may be the source of the nonlinear nature of the relationship between GDP growth and inflation identified in previous empirical studies. Finally, taking into account the direct impact of inflation on investment, variables approximating the cost of capital utilisation prove to be statistically insignificant determinants of corporate investment.

The exploration of the structural features and sectoral interdependences of and in an economy is fundamental for the understanding of its modes of functioning and of its transformations over time. Input-output analysis is largely used to fulfill this objective. Furthermore, information provided by the Leontief inverse matrix is useful for the identification of key sectors. This identification may guide policy makers in setting an adequate industrial strategy. In this paper, the classification of productive sectors is performed by using the Unweighted Rassmussen Approach. The ordering of sectors depends on the intensity of their links with other sectors. Two results ought to be highlighted. First, key sectors of the Moroccan economy (sectors that are classified in category II) reduced to two sectors in 2007 instead of four sectors in 1998. Second, the ordering of sectors is highly sensitive to the precision of the data and to the year in which the classification is realized.

Industrial organization is mainly concerned with the behavior of large firms, especially when it comes to oligopoly theory. Experimental industrial organization, therefore, faces a problem: How can firms be brought into the laboratory? The main approach relies on framing: Call individuals “firms”! This experimental approach is not in line with modern industrial organization, according to which a firm’s market behavior is also determined by its organizational structure. In this paper, a Stackelberg experiment is considered in order to answer the question whether framing individual decision making as firm decision making or implementing an organizational structure is more effective for generating profit-maximizing behavior. Firms are either represented by individuals or by teams. Teams are organized according to a parsimonious version of Alchian and Demsetz’s (Production, Information Costs, and Economic Organization, 1972) contractual model of the firm. The author finds teams’ quantity choices are more in line with the assumption of profit maximization than individuals’ choices. Compared to individuals, teams appear to be less inequality averse.

The Walrasian theory of labor market equilibrium predicts that in the absence of any market frictions, workers earn a wage rate equal to their marginal productivity. In this paper, based on the neoclassical tradition, the authors define the ratio of the marginal product of labor to real wages as the Pigouvian exploitation rate and then construct a panel dataset of this specific wage-productivity gap for the manufacturing sector in OECD economies. Next, they investigate its relationship with the unemployment rate along with various other variables such as the government taxation, capital expansion, unionization, inflation. Their findings suggest that the wage-productivity gap gives a robust and significantly positive response to shocks to unemployment rate and a negative response to shocks to unionization.

Inequality, bi-polarization and polarization are related but distinct concepts aiming at analysing the income distribution. This paper first recalls the main differences between these three notions of inequality, bipolarization and polarization and then suggests using the socalled Shapley decomposition to show that the various income sources have a different impact on these three types of indicators. Our empirical investigation, based on 2008 data for Luxembourg, shows in fact that, in the case of the so-called zero income Shapley decomposition, inequality in Luxembourg is strongly related to income from capital while bipolarization is mainly due to the distribution of income from work and polarization to that of the income from work and transfers.

The classical cobweb theorem is extended to include production lags and price forecasts. Price forecasting based on a longer period has a stabilizing effect on prices. Longer production lags do not necessarily lead to unstable prices; very long lags lead to cycles of constant amplitude. The classical cobweb requires elasticity of demand to be greater than that of supply; this is not necessarily the case in a more general setting. Random shocks are also considered.

Dynamic econometric models are built individually for ten countries from G10 during the Great Moderation period, with the aim of analysing counterfactually the globalisation effect on inflation. The main findings are (i) the effect is highly heterogeneous from country to country; (ii) increases in trade openness could be either inflationary or deflationary whereas increased imports from low-cost emerging-market economies are mostly deflationary; and (iii) there is almost no direct globalisation impact as far as inflation persistence is concerned while the impact on inflation variability can be positive as well as negative. Overall, globalisation is found to have contributed positively to lowering rather than stabilising inflation during the Great Moderation era.

The aim of this paper is to contribute to the debate on the pro-poor growth measurement techniques using monetary versus non-monetary indicators. In this context, an alternative method for introducing non-monetary indicators into monetary pro-poor growth analysis is presented. The method is based on the definition of a “Conditional Growth Incidence Curve” for each group of households with a common selected non-monetary characteristic. Additional information provided by the “Conditional Growth Incidence Curve” is useful for a more detailed pro-poor growth analysis. Empirical illustration using data from rural Ethiopia between 2004 and 2009 shows the utility and the limits of each measurement technique.

During the 1990s, some important European countries, particularly Italy and Sweden, have radically transformed their public pension system by adopting defined-contribution rules while retaining a pay-as-you-go financial architecture. This paper inquires into the theoretical properties of these “Notional Defined Contribution” pension schemes in order to identify the determinants of the replacement rates awarded to individuals with different income patterns. Three typical career patterns are taken into consideration, according to whether the individual wage growth is equal to, higher than, or lower than average wage growth. The impact of, and the possible remedies to, a possible discontinuity on the replacement rates is finally discussed by means of a sensitivity analysis of the replacement rates with respect to the career length (for a given retirement age), the retirement age, and the conventional rate of return credited on all individual accounts.

This paper builds a DSGE model for a small open economy (SOE) in which the central bank intervenes the domestic currency bond and FX markets using two policy rules: a Taylortype rule and a rule that determines the rate of nominal depreciation. The 2 ‘corner’ regimes, in which only one policy rule is used, are particular cases. The model is calibrated and implemented in Dynare for simple and optimal simple policy rules, and optimal policy under commitment. Numerical losses are obtained for ad-hoc loss functions for different sets of central bank preferences. The results show that the losses are lower when both policy rules are used. This is due to the central bank’s enhanced ability, when it uses the two policy rules, to influence private capital flows through the effects of its actions on the endogenous risk premium in the risk-adjusted uncovered interest parity equation.

The paper analyzes the potential trade distortion effects of state trading enterprises (STEs) on soybean imports to Korea. Traditionally, STEs have exercised exclusive rights to import the so-called strategic products, to ensure food security, domestic price stabilization, and import mark-ups. However, STE imports have been criticized on the grounds that industries using soybeans as a raw material are unable to obtain a diverse mix of quality material and cannot exercise the “right to choose” their own ingredients. Under a theoretical framework, a tariff equivalent of the STE is postulated to equate imports by private firms with imports by the STE. An empirical model is constructed and estimated using annual data spanning 1980–2009. The estimated results show that providing exclusive rights to imports has a negative effect on market access. When the STE pursues consumer welfare, the import-reducing effect turns out to be smaller than that in the producer welfare maximization case.

Using cross-country data, this paper estimates the impact of the 2007 financial shock on countries’ macroeconomic developments conditional on national financial regulations before the crisis. For this purpose, the “financial reform index” developed by Abiad et al. (A New Database of Financial Reforms, 2008a) is used. The econometric analyses indicate that countries with more deregulated financial markets experienced deeper recessions, stronger employment losses, and larger government budget deficits. Against the background of the ongoing global crisis and the results of other studies, the usefulness of liberalized financial markets for macroeconomic stability and economic development should be rigorously reconsidered.

This study directly assesses the impact of military work experience compared with civilian work experience in similar jobs on the subsequent chances of being hired in the civilian labour market. It does so through a field experiment in the Belgian labour market. A statistical examination of our experimental dataset shows that in general we cannot reject that employers are indifferent to whether job candidates gained their experience in a civilian or a military environment.

In this paper, we employ a portfolio approach based on a two-country world to study the impact of financial openness on the size of government and on other key economic variables, including the consumption-wealth ratio, the growth rate of wealth, and welfare (assuming that public spending is utility enhancing). The model suggests that the size of government, the consumption-wealth ratio, and welfare should be greater in an open economy because of higher productivity and/or less volatility because of risk sharing. The theoretical results for the growth rate depend on differences in productivity and in consumption-wealth ratios. The empirical evidence — based on a sample of 49 countries from 1970 to 2009—broadly supports the main theoretical results of the model.

The starting point for the research has been the list of 147 banking crises within the period 1976–2011 prepared by the International Monetary Fund. The countries with crises have been analysed with respect to publicly available World Bank indicators in the periods of three years before the crises. The machine learning methodology for subgroup discovery has been used for the analysis. It enabled identification of five subsets of crises. Two of them have been identified as especially useful for the characterization of EU countries with banking crises in the year 2008. Fast growing credit activity is characteristic for the first subgroup while socioeconomic problems recognized by non-increasing quality of public health are decisive for the second subgroup. Comparative analysis of EU countries included into these subgroups demonstrated statistically significant differences with respect to World Bank good governance indicator values for the period before the crisis. Control of corruption, rule of law, and government effectiveness are the indicators which are statistically different for these sets of countries. The significance of the result is in the segmentation of the corpus of countries with banking crises and the recognition of connections between banking crises, socioeconomic problems, and governance effectiveness in some EU countries.

This paper studies the effect of exchange rate pass-through on inflation in Tunisia for the period 2001 to 2009. The objective is to track inflation regimes for the Tunisian economy and to forecast its determinants. Using a Markov-switching approach, the authors identified two main regimes for inflation in Tunisia during this period: a low and stable inflation regime associated with a low pass-through level and a high inflation regime associated with a high pass-through level. To highlight the mechanisms underlying shifts in inflation regimes, the authors used a time-varying probabilities approach and identified a set of variables to assess their effects on inflation in Tunisia. The results show that the price level decreases in response to an increase in interest rates. Along with this, the empirical results provide strong evidence that the industrial production index has a negative and significant effect, as it increases the probability to stay in an inflationary regime and remain at a high pass-through level. The results also show robust support for the hypothesis that the imports increase the probability to stay in a high-inflation regime and maintain a high pass-through level. However, exports increase the probability of staying in a low-inflation regime and maintaining a low pass-through level.

The paper recounts the history of the finance-growth nexus research from its origins to the yearly 1990s. The contributions are analyzed in connection with the socioeconomic context and advances in economic theory. Many ideas first expressed decades ago are still subject to constant discussions and empirical checks, for example, causality direction between finance and economic growth which appeared on the agenda in the mid-1960s. Data improvement and theoretical advances, namely, breakthroughs in the economic theory of information in conjunction with endogenous growth models and growth regressions, shaped the modern landscape of this research program in the early 1990s.

A fundamental cause of the global financial crisis was excessive maturity mismatch, notably shadow banking holdings of sub-prime MBS and other structured credit instruments and crossborder Euro area interbank lending to the uncompetitive Euro area periphery. The costs of short term funding do not fully reflect underlying asset risks and this created systemic liquidity and credit risks. This externality can be controlled through the issue of tradable licenses for short term funding. This is a simpler and more efficient way of addressing systemic liquidity risk than the controls on individual institutions proposed by international regulators.

In this paper, the authors construct country-specific chronologies of the house price bubbles for 12 OECD countries over the period 1969:Q1–2009:Q4. These chronologies are obtained using a combination of a fundamental approach and a filter approach. The resulting speculative bubble chronology is the one which provides the highest concordance between these two techniques. In addition, the authors suggest an early warning system based on three alternative approaches: A signalling approach, a logit model, and a probit model. It is shown that the latter two models allow much more accurate predictions of house price bubbles than the signalling approach. Furthermore, the predictive accuracy of the logit and probit models is high enough to make them useful in forecasting future speculative bubbles in housing market. Thus, this method can be used by the policymakers in their attempts to quickly detect house price bubbles and attenuate their devastating effects on the domestic and world economy.

In this paper the authors focus on credit connections as a potential source of systemic risk. In particular, they seek to answer the following question: how do we find densely connected subsets of nodes within a credit network? The question is relevant for policy, since these subsets are likely to channel any shock affecting the network. As it turns out, a reliable answer can be obtained with the aid of complex network theory. In particular, the authors show how it is possible to take advantage of the ‘‘community detection’‘ network literature. The proposed answer entails two subsequent steps. Firstly, the authors verify the hypothesis that the network under study truly has communities. Secondly, they devise a reliable algorithm to find those communities. In order to be sure that a given algorithm works, they test it over a sample of random benchmark networks with known communities. To overcome the limitation of existing benchmarks, the authors introduce a new model and test alternative algorithms, obtaining very good results with an adapted spectral decomposition method. To illustrate this method they provide a community description of the Japanese bank-firm credit network, getting evidence of a strengthening of communities over time and finding support for the well-known Japanese main ‘‘bank’‘ system. Thus, the authors find comfort both from simulations and from real data on the possibility to apply community detection methods to credit markets. They believe that this method can fruitfully complement the study of contagious defaults. Since network risk depends crucially on community structure, their results suggest that policy maker should identify systemically important communities, i.e. those able extend the initial shock to the entire system.

“Systemic risk” now occupies centre stage in discussions of bank regulatory reform. Systemic risk is often seen as a problem of size, operational complexity, interconnectivity and contagion. It is less often discussed in terms of the institutional framework of legal rules and principles within which financial intermediation takes place, and the organizational culture promoted by those structures. In this article we redress this deficit through an appraisal of Northern Rock, illustrating the consequences of its transformation from mutually owned building society to publicly held company on organisational culture. These changes had profound effects on the incentive structure of its owners and managers, as profit-maximisation and shareholder value became the driving force within the firm, as in much of the rest of the UK banking sector. Thus, in addition to grappling with risk and uncertainty—and taking care to distinguish between the two—current efforts to construct a new macro-prudential regulatory paradigm should recognise the importance of Frank Knight’s third key conceptual category–profit. Furthermore, in seeking to understand systemic risk, it becomes necessary to delve into micro-legal concepts such as property, trust, and contract that govern different forms of business to discern whether or not some modes of financial association create a greater degree of systemic risk than others. This is especially so when one organizational model comes to dominate retail markets, as did the publicly held company in the UK banking sector at the turn of the twenty-first century.

The ability to accurately estimate the extent to which the failure of a bank disrupts the financial system is very valuable for regulators of the financial system. One important part of the financial system is the interbank payment system. This paper develops a robust measure, SinkRank, that accurately predicts the magnitude of disruption caused by the failure of a bank in a payment system and identifies banks most affected by the failure. SinkRank is based on absorbing Markov chains, which are well-suited to model liquidity dynamics in payment systems. Because actual bank failures are rare and the data is not generally publicly available, the authors test the metric by simulating payment networks and inducing failures in them. They test SinkRank on several types of payment networks, including Barabási-Albert types of scale-free networks modeled on the Fedwire system, and find that the failing bank’s SinkRank is highly correlated with the resulting disruption in the system overall; moreover, the SinkRank algorithm can identify which individual banks would be most disrupted by a given failure.

The paper discusses various milestones in the process of multilateral trade negotiations, pinpoints current challenges facing the world trading order, and proposes possible ways out of the persistent impasse. Hufbauer argues that the success of the multilateral approach is at least partly because the GATT departed from the strictly unconditional definition of the most-favored nation (MFN) rule in the late 1970s already. Regional agreements such as NAFTA complemented, rather than hindered, multilateral trade liberalization in the past. The political economy of further multilateral liberalization has become increasingly complicated since countries such as Brazil, China, and India have emerged as relevant players. Against this backdrop, Hufbauer expects regionalism to become the strongest vehicle for delivering liberalization in the future. This could still leave a bright future for the WTO as a “house of plurilaterals”, i.e., agreements on specific issues such as services liberalization with conditional MFN treatment of varying membership.

This paper develops three major themes. First, the atmosphere of gloom around the multilateral trading system due to dim prospects of a successful conclusion of the Doha Round notwithstanding, global trade regime remains open and the institution in charge of it, the World Trade Organization, is in sound health. If anything, the Doha Round has been a victim of its own success: considerable de facto liberalization in agriculture has been achieved since the launch of the round. Second, to secure the future of the multilateral trading system, it is nevertheless crucial that the Doha Round is brought to a conclusion even if in a highly diluted form. The damage to the system from an outright failure will be very substantial. Finally, closing the Doha Round will require the United States leading the negotiations. Suggestions that as the largest merchandise exporter, China should now take the lead are frivolous.

In recent years sub-Saharan Africa, notwithstanding the global financial crisis, has increased its share in global trade and investment flows. This has led to an appreciable improvement in development levels, albeit off a small base. However, these patterns are still dominated by commodity flows and investment, and remain marginal on the global stage. Increased trade and investment flows, particularly related to network services, would be of great benefit to the sub-continent. Yet many domestic regulatory constraints remain. Furthermore, substantial international market distortions, particularly in agricultural trade, inhibit economic diversification into more value-adding activities. The Doha development round could, if concluded, go a long way towards addressing these barriers. Ultimately it could prove more consequential to the sub-continent’s development trajectory than regional economic integration. The latter, whilst important, is shallow and too reliant on institution-intensive forms mimicking the European Union. Overall therefore this paper motivates for an African trade agenda focused on concluding the Doha round.

Preferential trade agreements have spread throughout Asia. However, they have not facilitated intra-regional trade as much as their supporters have suggested. The complexities of rules of origin – part and parcel of all preferential agreements – have resulted in low utilization rates in Asia. The key driver of trade integration in Asia has instead been the rise of China. In the past two decades, China has managed to establish itself as the indispensable trading partner in the region. In 2011, China ran a trade deficit with its neighbouring countries whilst running surpluses with the USA and the EU. At the same time, deeper trade integration in Asia, e.g. an Asian wide customs union, appears to be an unrealistic goal. At this juncture, the political obstacles that hinder a deepening of co-operation are formidable. Other Asian countries wish to cooperate with China, but they demonstrate an ever-rising reluctance to enter far-reaching integration projects with Bejing.

The authors develop a simple agent-based and stock flow consistent model of a monetary economy. Their model is well suited to explain money creation along the lines of mainstream theory. Additionally it uncovers a potential instability that follows from a maturity mismatch of assets and liabilities. The authors analyze the impact of interbank lending on the stability of the financial sector and find that an interbank market stabilizes the economy during normal times but amplifies systemic instability, contagion and bankruptcy cascades during crises. But even with no interbank market, indirect contagion can lead to bankruptcy cascades. The authors also find that the existence of large banks threatens stability and that regulatory policy should target large banks more strictly than small.

The complexity of credit-money is conceived as the central issue in the banking-macro nexus, which the author considers as a structural as well as process component of the evolving economy. This nexus is significant for the stability as well as the fragility of the economic system, because it connects the monetary with the real domain of economic production and consumption. The evolution of credit rules shapes economic networks between households, firms, banks, governments and central banks in space and time. The properties and characteristics of this evolutionary process are discussed in three sections. First, the author looks into the origins of the theory of money and its role for contemporary monetary economics. Second, he briefly discusses current theoretical foundations of top-down as well as bottom-up approaches to the banking-macro nexus, such as dynamic stochastic general equilibrium and agent-based models. In the third part he suggests an evolutionary framework, building on a generic rule-based approach, to arrive at standards for bottom-up foundations in agent-based macroeconomic models with a banking sector.

This paper is aimed at investigating the effects of government intervention through unemployment benefits on macroeconomic dynamics in an agent based decentralized matching framework. The major result is that the presence of such a public intervention in the economy stabilizes the aggregate demand and the financial conditions of the system at the cost of a modest increase of both the inflation rate and the ratio between public deficit and nominal GDP. The successful action of the public sector is sustained by the central bank which is committed to buy outstanding government securities.

Agreement is developing among agricultural scientists on the emerging inability of agriculture to meet growing global food demands. Changes in trends of weather conditions projected by global climate models will challenge physiological limits of crops and exacerbate the global food challenge by 2050. These climate- and constraint-driven crop production challenges are interconnected within a complex global economy, where diverse factors add to price volatility and food scarcity. Our scenarios of the impact of climate change on food security through 2050 for internationally traded crops show that climate change does not threaten near-term US food security due to the availability of adaptation strategies. However, as climate continues to change beyond 2050 current adaptation measures will not be sufficient to meet growing food demand. Climate scenarios for higher-level carbon emissions exacerbate the food shortfall, although uncertainty in projections of future precipitation is a limitation to impact studies.

The projected changes in planted area, yield per area, net exports/imports and prices for five major agricultural crops in South Africa were simulated using the projections of four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under three socio-economic scenarios. The GCM projections show consistent strong warming over the subcontinent, but disagree with respect to future precipitation, from slight wetting (particularly on the eastern side) to overall slight drying. The future crop yields were simulated using the DSSAT crop model suite. The planted area, commodity prices and net exports were simulated using the IMPACT global food trade model. The results indicate slightly rising to stable yields per unit area up to 2050, despite climate change, largely due to the inbuilt assumption of ongoing agronomic and genetic improvements. Vulnerability to food insecurity increases in the future under all but the most optimistic development scenarios, and is exacerbated by climate change, especially through global-scale, market- related mechanisms. Policies to increase local agricultural production in South Africa, decrease climate sensitivity and access to international markets are highlighted.

This paper has a twofold objective: First, to estimate the changes in landings value by 2030 for two Mexican coastal fisheries, specifically shrimp and sardine fisheries, as a consequence of climate change; and second, to discuss the implications of such impacts for food security. A dynamic panel model was used for the Mexican fisheries sector, with data from 1990 through 2009. The results suggest that shrimp production will be negatively affected, while in contrast, the sardine fishery is expected to benefit from the increase in temperature. Most losses/gains would be observed in the NW Mexican Pacific, where the fishing sector has an important role in the local economy, representing a risk to food security in both direct and indirect ways.

Global climate change presents long-term risks to agriculture. In general, global climate change is expected to positively affect Russian agriculture. In high and middle latitudes, global warming would expand the growing season. Acreages of agricultural crops may expand toward the north, although yields would likely be lower due to less fertile soil. However, in the south there is a possibility of drier climate, which has a negative impact on crop yields and livestock productivity. In addition, climate change is expected to increase the scarcity of water resources and encourage weed and pest proliferation, and it is expected to increase the short-term risks associated with an increase in extreme weather events and natural disasters. This paper uses data on current conditions to simulate future scenarios and examine possible impacts on crop production in the Russian Federation. It also considers adaptive measures for agriculture in response to climate change.