Global Governance of the Transition to Artificial General Intelligence
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Jerome Clayton Glenn
About this book
While today’s Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI) tools have limited purposes like diagnosing illness or driving a car, if managed well, Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), could usher in great advances in human condition encompassing the fields of medicine, education, longevity, turning around global warming, scientific advancements, and creating a more peaceful world. However, if left unbridled, AGI also has the potential to end human civilization. This book discusses the current status, and provides recommendations for the future, regarding regulations concerning the creation, licensing, use, implementation and governance of AGI.
Based on an international assessment of the issues and potential governance approaches for the transition from ANI of today to future forms of AGI by The Millennium Project, a global participatory think tank, the book explores how to manage this global transition. Section 1 shares the views of 55 AGI experts and thought leaders from the US, China, UK, Canada, EU, and Russia, including Elon Musk, Sam Altman and Bill Gates, on 22 critical questions. In Section 2, The Millennium Project futurist team analyzes these views to create a list of potential regulations and global governance systems or models for the safe emergence of AGI, rated and commented on by an international panel of futurists, diplomats, international lawyers, philosophers, scientists and other experts from 47 countries.
This book broadens and deepens the current conversations about future AI, educating the public as well as those who make decisions and advise others about potential artificial intelligence regulations.
- Provides international assessments of specific regulations, guardrails, and global governance models
- Includes contributions from notable experts
- Compiles the latest thinking on national and global AGI governance from 300 AGI experts
Author / Editor information
Jerome Clayton Glenn, CEO of The Millennium Project, a leading global participatory think tank, based in Washington DC, connects futurists around the world to improve global foresight. He is the Chairman of the High-Level AGI Panel of the Council of Presidents of the United Nations General Assembly. With over five decades in futures research, he has worked with governments, UN organizations, and the private sector in future S&T policy, environmental security, economic development and global prospects for the future. He is a member of the IEEE SA P2863 on organizational governance of AI, has authored numerous publications and keynoted over 1000 events worldwide. He has received numerous accolades including the Lifeboat Foundation Guardian Award (shared with Volodymyr Zelenskyy). Glenn holds a BA from American University, an MA from Antioch University, New England, ABD in Futures Research, UMass, and two honorary PhDs and a professorship.
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Frontmatter
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Foreword
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Acknowledgments
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Contents
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Introduction
1 - Part 1: Issues Concerning the Transition from Artificial Narrow Intelligence to Artificial General Intelligence
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Part 1.1: Origin, Self-Emergence, Future Trajectories from ANI to AGI
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Chapter 1 How Might Artificial General Intelligence Emerge?
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Chapter 2 Trajectories for AGI, if not Governed or Governed Badly. What Might Happen?
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Chapter 3 What Initial Conditions, Rules, Regulations, and Guardrails for AGI should we Pursue now?
28 - Part 1.2: Value Alignment, Morality, and Values
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Chapter 4 Drawing on the Work of the Global Partnership on AI, UNESCO, and Others that have Already Identified Norms, Principles, and Values, what Additional or Unique Values should be Considered for AGI?
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Chapter 5 How can Alignment be Achieved? If it is not Possible, then what is the Best Way to Manage this Situation?
39 - Part 1.3: Governance and Regulations
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Chapter 6 How to Manage the International Cooperation Necessary to Build a Global Governance System, While Nations and Corporations are in an Intellectual “arms race” for Global AGI Leadership?
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Chapter 7 What are the Options for Successful Governance of the Emergence of AGI?
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Chapter 8 What Risks Arise from Attempts to Govern the Emergence of AGI? Might Some Measures be Counterproductive?
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Chapter 9 Should Future AGI Varieties be Given Rights?
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Chapter 10 How can a Governance System be Flexible Enough to Respond to New Issues Previously Unknown at the Time of Creating that Governance System?
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Chapter 11 What International Governance Trials, Tests, or Experiments can be Constructed to Inform the Text of an International AGI Agreement?
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Chapter 12 How can International Treaties and a Governance System Prevent Increased Centralization of Power Crowding Out Others?
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Chapter 13 Where is the Most Important or Insightful Work Today being Conducted on Global Governance of AGI?
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Chapter 14 What Enforcement Powers will be Needed to Make a United Nations Convention on AGI Effective?
74 - Part 1.4: Control
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Chapter 15 How can the Use of AGI by Organized Crime and Terrorism be Reduced or Prevented?
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Chapter 16 Assuming AGI Audits would have to be Continuous Rather than One-time Certifications, How would Audit Values be Addressed?
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Chapter 17 What Disruptions could Complicate the Task of Enforcing AGI Governance?
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Chapter 18 How can a Governance Model Correct Undesirable Action Unanticipated in Utility Functions?
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Chapter 19 How will Quantum Computing Affect AGI Control?
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Chapter 20 How can International Agreements and a Governance System Prevent an AGI “arms race” and Escalation from Going Faster than Expected, Getting Out of Control and Leading to War, be it Kinetic, Algorithmic, Cyber, or Information Warfare?
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Chapter 21 What Additional Issues and/or Questions Need to be Addressed to have a Positive AGI Outcome?
95 - Part 2: Potential Regulations and Global Governance Models
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Part 2: Potential Regulations and Global Governance Models
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Part 2.1: Executive Summary of Recommendations from this Research
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Part 2.2: Real-Time Delphi Results
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Question 1: What Design Concepts should be Included for a UN AGI Agency to Certify National Licensing of Nonmilitary AGI Systems?
113 - Part 3: If Humans were Free—The Self-Actualization Economy a 2050 Scenario Made Possible by AGI
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Part 3: If Humans were Free—The Self-Actualization Economy a 2050 Scenario Made Possible by AGI
147 - Part 4: Conclusions, Recommendations, and Remaining Issues
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Part 4: Conclusions, Recommendations, and Remaining Issues
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Appendices
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Appendix A: The Millennium Project Nodes
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Appendix B: The Millennium Project AGI Team
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Appendix C: AGI Experts and Thought Leaders Featured in Part 1
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Appendix D: List of Questions for the Governance of AGI in Part 1
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Appendix E: Regional Demographics/Region Percentage
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Appendix F: Real-Time Delphi Participants Featured in Part 2
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List of Abbreviations
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Index
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