Dangerous Strait

Dangerous Strait provides fresh perspectives on the complex political, economic, and strategic issues of the Taiwan Strait. Essays examine a variety of topics, which include the movement for independence and its place in Taiwanese domestic politics, the underlying weaknesses of democracy in Taiwan, and the significance of China and Taiwan's economic interdependence. In the area of security, contributors provide incisive critiques of Taiwan's incomplete military modernization, the strains in U.S.-Taiwan relations and their differing interpretations of China's intentions, and the misguided inclination to abandon Washington's traditional policy of strategic ambiguity.

Today the most dangerous place on earth is arguably the Taiwan Strait, where a war between the United States and China could erupt out of miscalculation, misunderstanding, or accident. How and to what degree Taiwan pursues its own national identity will have profound ramifications in its relationship with China as well as in relations between China and the United States.

Events late in 2004 demonstrated the volatility of the situation, as Taiwan's legislative elections unexpectedly preserved a slim majority for supporters of closer relations with China. Beijing, nevertheless, threatened to pass an anti-secession law, apt to revitalize pro-independence forces in Taiwan—and make war more likely. Taking change as a central theme, these essays by prominent scholars and practitioners in the arena of U.S.-Taiwan-Chinese relations combine historical context with timely analysis of an accelerating crisis. The book clarifies historical developments, examines myths about past and present policies, and assesses issues facing contemporary policymakers. Moving beyond simplistic explanations that dominate discussion about the U.S.-Taiwan-China relationship, Dangerous Strait challenges common wisdom and approaches the political, economic, and strategic aspects of the cross-Strait situation anew. The result is a collection that provides fresh and much-needed insights into a complex problem and examines the ways in which catastrophe can be avoided.

The essays examine a variety of issues, including the movement for independence and its place in Taiwanese domestic politics; the underlying weaknesses of democracy in Taiwan; and the significance of China and Taiwan's economic interdependence. In the security arena, contributors provide incisive critiques of Taiwan's incomplete military modernization; strains in U.S.-Taiwan relations and their differing interpretations of China's intentions; and the misguided inclination among some U.S. policymakers to abandon Washington's traditional policy of strategic ambiguity.

Nancy Bernkopf Tucker is professor of history at Georgetown University and the Georgetown School of Foreign Service. Her books include China Confidential and Uncertain Friendships: Taiwan, Hong Kong, and the United States, which won the Bernath Prize from the Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations.

Rod Wye:
Dangerous Strait brings together an invaluable collection of authoritative and incisive contributions by leading academic authorities.

Warren I. Cohen:
Tucker's Dangerous Strait analyzes both cross-strait relations and U.S. policy toward the Taiwan issue, providing essential context and thoughts on how to avert disaster.

Mei-Chin Lee:
This book contains a wealth of information and timely studies... [and] is to be commended.

Jean-Pierre Cabestan:
This is a very good and useful book.

Lucian W. Pye:
The contributors successfully explain the historical evolution of the cross-strait situation and provide solid analysis of the complex relations.

Bradley Winterton:
Dangerous Strait is an outstanding book, uniquely authoritative and uniquely sober and careful in all its assertions.