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Expectations Investing

Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns, Revised and Updated
  • Michael Mauboussin and Alfred Rappaport
Language: English
Published/Copyright: 2021
View more publications by Columbia University Press

About this book

Most investment books try to assess the attractiveness of a stock price by estimating the value of the company. Expectations Investing provides a powerful and insightful alternative to identifying gaps between price and value.

Author / Editor information

Michael J. Mauboussin is head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management. He is an adjunct professor of finance at Columbia Business School. His books include More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places (Columbia, updated and expanded edition, 2007); Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition (2009); and The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing (2012).

Alfred Rappaport is the Leonard Spacek Professor Emeritus at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management. He is the author of Creating Shareholder Value (revised edition, 1997) and Saving Capitalism from Short-Termism: How to Build Long-Term Value and Take Back Our Financial Future (2011). Rappaport has been a guest columnist for the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, the Financial Times, Fortune, and BusinessWeek.

Reviews

Tren Griffin, author of Charlie Munger: The Complete Investor and A Dozen Lessons for Entrepreneurs:
In this book Mauboussin and Rappaport teach readers how to achieve an investing edge by inverting a conventional investing process. The market’s expectations as implied by the current stock price are assessed before an analysis about how that price might change in the future. This method is straight up Charlie Munger-style inversion. Since margin of safety can be restated as a discount to expected value, understanding this process is invaluable.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy, CFA, CEO, O'Shaughnessy Asset Management, and author of Millennial Money: How Young Investors can Build a Fortune:
Expectations Investing was one of the first books that sparked my interest in investing. The core idea is as powerful as any, and the authors explain it in a way that makes it unforgettable. This excellent update to the original classic is must reading for all investors.

Morgan Housel, Partner, The Collaborative Fund, and author of The Psychology of Money: Timeless Lessons on Wealth, Greed, and Happiness:
One of the few investing books that gave me an 'ah-ha' moment and changed how I think about investing.

Annie Duke, author of Thinking in Bets and How to Decide:
In Expectations Investing, Michael Mauboussin and Al Rappaport build off the simple yet powerful observation that a company’s stock price embeds expectations. They then offer investors a rigorous method to identify gaps between what the price reflects and what is likely to happen. Truly a must have in any investor’s library.

Bill Gurley, General Partner, Benchmark Capital:
Mauboussin and Rappaport’s approach to corporate valuation is as relevant and intelligent today as ever. Understanding expectations, assessing competitive strategy, appreciating optionality, and a laser focus on cash flow will make you a more effective investor in private or public markets.

Howard Marks, cofounder and cochairman, Oaktree Capital Management, and author of The Most Important Thing Illuminated and Mastering the Market Cycle:
In Expectations Investing, Michael Mauboussin and Al Rappaport break down investing into its component parts, explaining what makes for good companies and attractively priced stocks. Which isn’t to say they make it easy. This is second-level thinking: a graduate-level course in intelligent investing.

from the foreword by Aswath Damodaran:
As I read the new edition of the book, it is clear that Al and Michael are writing a book for the times that we are in, with much more attention paid to disruption, and the value it creates and destroys, and user/subscriber platforms, which can be exploited for gain and thus provide optionality.


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PART I. Gathering the Tools

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PART II. Implementing the Process

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PART III. Reading Corporate Signals and Sources of Opportunities

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Publishing information
Pages and Images/Illustrations in book
eBook published on:
November 12, 2021
eBook ISBN:
9780231554848
Pages and Images/Illustrations in book
Other:
53 figures and tables
Downloaded on 24.12.2025 from https://www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi/10.7312/maub20304/html
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