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Bernoulli's Fallacy
Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science
Language:
English
Published/Copyright:
2021
About this book
Aubrey Clayton traces the history of the flaw that underlies modern statistics, beginning with the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli’s Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data—and how to fix it.
Author / Editor information
Aubrey Clayton is a mathematician who teaches the philosophy of probability and statistics at the Harvard Extension School. He holds a PhD from the University of California, Berkeley, and his writing has appeared in Pacific Standard, Nautilus, and the Boston Globe.
Reviews
Eric-Jan Wagenmakers, coauthor of Bayesian Cognitive Modeling: A Practical Course:
This story of the 'statistics wars' is gripping, and Clayton is an excellent writer. He argues that scientists have been doing statistics all wrong, a case that should have profound ramifications for medicine, biology, psychology, the social sciences, and other empirical disciplines. Few books accessible to a broad audience lay out the Bayesian case so clearly.
This story of the 'statistics wars' is gripping, and Clayton is an excellent writer. He argues that scientists have been doing statistics all wrong, a case that should have profound ramifications for medicine, biology, psychology, the social sciences, and other empirical disciplines. Few books accessible to a broad audience lay out the Bayesian case so clearly.
Persi Diaconis, Mary V. Sunseri Professor of Statistics and Mathematics, Stanford University:
I like it! Anything that gets people thinking about the uses and abuses of statistics is important and Clayton's book does just this. Fifty years ago E. T. Jaynes opened my eyes to the importance of Bayesian ideas in the real world and this readable account brings these ideas up to date.
Andrew Gelman, Columbia University:
An entertaining mix of history and science.
Topics
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Frontmatter
i -
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CONTENTS
vii -
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PREFACE
ix -
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
xvii -
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INTRODUCTION
1 -
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1. WHAT IS PROBABILITY?
20 -
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2. THE TITULAR FALLACY
69 -
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3. ADOLPHE QUETELET’S BELL CURVE BRIDGE
107 -
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4. THE FREQUENTIST JIHAD
131 -
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5. THE QUOTE-UNQUOTE LOGIC OF ORTHODOX STATISTICS
179 -
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6. THE REPLICATION CRISIS/OPPORTUNITY
240 -
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7. THE WAY OUT
281 -
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NOTES
305 -
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BIBLIOGRAPHY
323 -
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INDEX
335
Publishing information
Pages and Images/Illustrations in book
eBook published on:
September 8, 2021
eBook ISBN:
9780231553353
Pages and Images/Illustrations in book
Other:
12 b&w illustrations
eBook ISBN:
9780231553353
Keywords for this book
probability; statistics; frequentist statistics; Bayesian statistics; replication crisis; history of math; history of statistics; statistics and science
Audience(s) for this book
General/trade;
