University of Chicago Press
The Means of Prediction
About this book
AI is inescapable, from its mundane uses online to its increasingly consequential decision-making in courtrooms, job interviews, and wars. The ubiquity of AI is so great that it might produce public resignation—a sense that the technology is our shared fate.
As economist Maximilian Kasy shows in The Means of Prediction, artificial intelligence, far from being an unstoppable force, is irrevocably shaped by human decisions—choices made to date by the ownership class that steers its development and deployment. Kasy shows that the technology of AI is ultimately not that complex. It is insidious, however, in its capacity to steer results to its owners’ wants and ends. Kasy clearly and accessibly explains the fundamental principles on which AI works, and, in doing so, reveals that the real conflict isn’t between humans and machines, but between those who control the machines and the rest of us.
The Means of Prediction offers a powerful vision of the future of AI: a future not shaped by technology, but by the technology’s owners. Amid a deluge of debates about technical details, new possibilities, and social problems, Kasy cuts to the core issue: Who controls AI’s objectives, and how is this control maintained? The answer lies in what he calls “the means of prediction,” or the essential resources required for building AI systems: data, computing power, expertise, and energy. As Kasy shows, in a world already defined by inequality, one of humanity’s most consequential technologies has been and will be steered by those already in power.
Against those stakes, Kasy offers an elegant framework both for understanding AI’s capabilities and for designing its public control. He makes a compelling case for democratic control over AI objectives as the answer to mounting concerns about AI's risks and harms. The Means of Prediction is a revelation, both an expert undressing of a technology that has masqueraded as more complicated and a compelling call for public oversight of this transformative technology.
Reviews
“Rather than treating AI as an unstoppable technological wave, Kasy invites readers to see it as a political and social choice. In a world already shaped by inequality, he argues that AI will deepen existing divides unless it’s placed under public and democratic control. His framework is analytical and visionary, a blend of economics, ethics, and practical insight into how society might reclaim agency over one of the most consequential technologies of our time.”
“In The Means of Prediction, economist Maximilian Kasy offers something refreshingly different: a political economy of Artificial Intelligence. While debate rages about whether AI will deliver us from material scarcity, impoverish the world’s workers, or transform us into paper clips, Kasy offers a plain, forceful, and almost self-evidently correct reframing: the fundamental conflicts surrounding AI are not between humans and machines but among humans with divergent interests. . . . The Means of Prediction makes a searing contribution to an otherwise overcrowded genre by reframing AI governance as fundamentally a question of political economy rather than engineering. . . . For economists, social scientists, and policymakers accustomed to thinking about inequality, decision rights, and collective action, Kasy provides the conceptual vocabulary to engage with AI on familiar terrain.”
— David Autor, Journal of Economic Literature"Kasy argues that engineers, entrepreneurs and corporations are shaping Artificial Intelligence to advance their own interests and not those of society, and that governments must regulate the technology to address this problem. In developing his argument, the author provides an admirably clear and compact explanation—the best one out there—of what AI is, and what it can and cannot do."
— Barry Eichengreen, Smart Thinking Books“If the thought of a ubiquitous, mostly invisible predictive layer secretly grafted onto your life by a bunch of profit-hungry corporations makes you uneasy . . . well, same here. This arrangement is leading to a crueler, blander, more instrumentalized world, one where life’s possibilities are foreclosed, age-old prejudices are entrenched, and everyone’s brain seems to be actively turning into goo. It’s an outcome, according to Kasy, that was entirely predictable.”
— Bryan Gardiner, MIT Review“For Maximilian Kasy. . . the truly important, and terrifying, question regarding artificial intelligence is: Who controls it? A professor of economics at the University of Oxford, this mathematician and expert in machine learning techniques has just published The Means of Prediction: How AI Really Works (and Who Benefits). . . In this book, he argues that the fundamental conflicts surrounding AI do not originate from a struggle between humans and machines, but rather between those who control this technology and everyone else.”
— El País (translated from Spanish)“This accessible economic analysis of artificial intelligence reviews AI's ‘means of prediction’: data, computational infrastructure, technical expertise, and energy. Kasy explains and assesses how AI algorithms work and the objectives behind AI applications, drawing on examples ranging from estimating civilian casualties in military strikes to personalized advertising, offering a balanced forecast of both beneficial and harmful future applications. . . . The text highlights risks of underregulated AI but also shows that societies can empower those impacted by AI’s algorithms, not just those who control the means. Recommended.”
— Choice"Kasy . . . makes the case that government regulation is needed to guide the development of artificial intelligence. . . . As his argument unfolds, Kasy provides a clear and concise explanation of how AI works and what it can and cannot do.”
— Barry Eichengreen, Foreign AffairsTopics
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Frontmatter
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CONTENTS
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PREFACE
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PART I INTRODUCTION
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PART II HOW Al WORKS
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PART III MACHINE POWER
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PART IV REGULATING ALGORITHMS
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PART V OLD PROBLEMS, NEW CHALLENGES
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REFERENCES
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INDEX
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