Transition Scenarios

“While there is no shortage of books concerned with US-China relations and the potential for conflict with China’s rise, Transition Scenarios is the first to systematically employ a scenario building or ‘forward reasoning’ methodology—and it does so carefully and to great effect, advancing a growing literature in the field of international relations.”

“Will there be a power transition between the United States and China later this century, and, if so, will it be violent or peaceful? David P. Rapkin and William R. Thompson provide a unique analytic framework for thinking about these questions by developing five alternative scenarios for the future based on theoretically guided investigations of the power transitions of the last five centuries. This analytically sophisticated and historically rich study is essential reading for all those interested in one of the most critical policy questions of our age.”

“Recommended. . . . Rapkin and Thompson put to use the international relations theory, power transition, to explore the dynamics of a Chinese challenge to the global leadership of the United States by the mid-21st century. . . . [The authors] present five scenarios [and] call for a ‘forward reasoning’ model to assist world leaders through this dangerous period. . . . This well-argued case belongs in college and university libraries with holdings in international relations.”

“China’s rising status in the global economy alongside recent United States’ ‘rebalancing Asia’ strategy has led to considerable speculations that the world is already in the early stage of a transition in power relations. Rapkin and Thompson make a great attempt to identify likely scenarios for power transition and the drivers behind the possible scenes in this century. . . . The authors do an excellent job in explaining their US–China transition scenario forecasts in comparison to the existing ones. By going deeper into the drivers of conflict-constraint/inducement, they have given us a clear idea on how the historical, cultural, economic, political, military, geographical, and environmental elements interact for paving a trajectory for the future transition.”