Small Wars, Big Data
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Eli Berman
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In collaboration with:
Vestal McIntyre
About this book
How a new understanding of warfare can help the military fight today’s conflicts more effectively
The way wars are fought has changed starkly over the past sixty years. International military campaigns used to play out between large armies at central fronts. Today's conflicts find major powers facing rebel insurgencies that deploy elusive methods, from improvised explosives to terrorist attacks. Small Wars, Big Data presents a transformative understanding of these contemporary confrontations and how they should be fought. The authors show that a revolution in the study of conflict--enabled by vast data, rich qualitative evidence, and modern methods—yields new insights into terrorism, civil wars, and foreign interventions. Modern warfare is not about struggles over territory but over people; civilians—and the information they might choose to provide—can turn the tide at critical junctures.
The authors draw practical lessons from the past two decades of conflict in locations ranging from Latin America and the Middle East to Central and Southeast Asia. Building an information-centric understanding of insurgencies, the authors examine the relationships between rebels, the government, and civilians. This approach serves as a springboard for exploring other aspects of modern conflict, including the suppression of rebel activity, the role of mobile communications networks, the links between aid and violence, and why conventional military methods might provide short-term success but undermine lasting peace. Ultimately the authors show how the stronger side can almost always win the villages, but why that does not guarantee winning the war.
Small Wars, Big Data provides groundbreaking perspectives for how small wars can be better strategized and favorably won to the benefit of the local population.
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Frontmatter
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Contents
vii -
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Preface
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Know the war you’re in
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Esoc’s motivation and approach
23 -
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Information - centric insurgency and counterinsurgency
55 -
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The information mechanism
82 -
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The role of development assistance
109 -
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The role of suppression
152 -
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How civilians respond to harm
184 -
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Economic conditions and insurgent violence
223 -
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What works? leveraging the information mechanism
262 -
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The enduring importance of understanding asymmetric conflict
291 -
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Notes
329 -
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Index
377
