Article
Licensed
Unlicensed
Requires Authentication
Great Moderation(s) and US Interest Rates: Unconditional Evidence
-
James M. Nason
Published/Copyright:
November 27, 2008
The Great Moderation refers to the fall in US output growth volatility in the mid-1980s. At the same time, the US experienced a moderation in inflation and lower average inflation. Asset pricing theory predicts that moderations -- real or nominal -- influence interest rates. Using annual data since 1890, we find that an earlier 1946 moderation in output and consumption growth was comparable to that of 1984. To assess the impact of these moderations, we also isolate the 1969-1983 Great Inflation using quarterly data since 1947. We examine the quantitative predictions of a consumption-based asset pricing model for shifts in the unconditional average of US interest rates across these time periods. A central finding is that such shifts probably were related to changes in average inflation rather than to moderations in inflation and consumption growth.
Published Online: 2008-11-27
©2011 Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co. KG, Berlin/Boston
You are currently not able to access this content.
You are currently not able to access this content.
Articles in the same Issue
- Topics Article
- The Importance of Industrial Policy in Quality-Ladder Growth Models
- The Evolution of International Output Differences (1970-2000): From Factors to Productivity
- Non-Linearities and Unit Roots in G7 Macroeconomic Variables
- Mitigating the Growth-Effects of Inflation through Financial Development
- The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations
- Target Saving in an Overlapping Generations Model
- Inequality, Volatility and Labour Market Efficiency
- Expected Equity Returns and the Demand for Money
- Forecasting with DSGE Models: The Role of Nonlinearities
- Job Reallocation, Unemployment and Hours in a New Keynesian Model
- Consolidation of Student Loan Repayments and Default Incentives
- Advent of Industrial Mass Production: Three Stages of Economic Development
- The Japanese Depression in the Interwar Period: A General Equilibrium Analysis
- Determinants of Bilateral Remittance Flows
- Cyclical Behavior of Unemployment and Job Vacancies: A Comparison between Canada and the United States
- Economic and Socio-Political Determinants of de Facto Monetary Institutions and Inflationary Outcomes
- On Equilibrium Determinacy in New Keynesian Models with Staggered Wage and Price Setting
- Contributions Article
- Growth-Led Exports: Implications for the Cross-Country Effects of Shocks to Potential Output
- Monetary Policy and Fiscal Rules
- Choosing Longevity with Overlapping Generations: To Be or Not to Be in Diamond's Model
- Nonlinear Taylor Rules and Asymmetric Preferences in Central Banking: Evidence from the United Kingdom and the United States
- Baumol's Diseases: A Macroeconomic Perspective
- Employment Growth in the American Urban Hierarchy: Long Live Distance
- Endogenous Persistence and the Performance of Inertial Targeting Rules
- Unemployment, Imperfect Risk Sharing, and the Monetary Business Cycle
- Technological Progress and the Urbanization Process
- Convergence by Parts
- Estimating Returns to Schooling from State-Level Data: A Macro-Mincerian Approach
- Great Moderation(s) and US Interest Rates: Unconditional Evidence
- Advances Article
- Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in the OECD
- Monetary Policy under Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity
- Africa: Is Aid an Answer?
Articles in the same Issue
- Topics Article
- The Importance of Industrial Policy in Quality-Ladder Growth Models
- The Evolution of International Output Differences (1970-2000): From Factors to Productivity
- Non-Linearities and Unit Roots in G7 Macroeconomic Variables
- Mitigating the Growth-Effects of Inflation through Financial Development
- The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations
- Target Saving in an Overlapping Generations Model
- Inequality, Volatility and Labour Market Efficiency
- Expected Equity Returns and the Demand for Money
- Forecasting with DSGE Models: The Role of Nonlinearities
- Job Reallocation, Unemployment and Hours in a New Keynesian Model
- Consolidation of Student Loan Repayments and Default Incentives
- Advent of Industrial Mass Production: Three Stages of Economic Development
- The Japanese Depression in the Interwar Period: A General Equilibrium Analysis
- Determinants of Bilateral Remittance Flows
- Cyclical Behavior of Unemployment and Job Vacancies: A Comparison between Canada and the United States
- Economic and Socio-Political Determinants of de Facto Monetary Institutions and Inflationary Outcomes
- On Equilibrium Determinacy in New Keynesian Models with Staggered Wage and Price Setting
- Contributions Article
- Growth-Led Exports: Implications for the Cross-Country Effects of Shocks to Potential Output
- Monetary Policy and Fiscal Rules
- Choosing Longevity with Overlapping Generations: To Be or Not to Be in Diamond's Model
- Nonlinear Taylor Rules and Asymmetric Preferences in Central Banking: Evidence from the United Kingdom and the United States
- Baumol's Diseases: A Macroeconomic Perspective
- Employment Growth in the American Urban Hierarchy: Long Live Distance
- Endogenous Persistence and the Performance of Inertial Targeting Rules
- Unemployment, Imperfect Risk Sharing, and the Monetary Business Cycle
- Technological Progress and the Urbanization Process
- Convergence by Parts
- Estimating Returns to Schooling from State-Level Data: A Macro-Mincerian Approach
- Great Moderation(s) and US Interest Rates: Unconditional Evidence
- Advances Article
- Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in the OECD
- Monetary Policy under Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity
- Africa: Is Aid an Answer?
